The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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CSKA Moscow v FK Rostov

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 17:30 UTC

Final: CSKA Moscow 0–0 FK Rostov

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSKA Moscow (Local)

Prediction 49.45%2.02fair odd
EV -3.58%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.64%49.45%49.45%52.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.881.881.9556.82%53.29%53.05%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Rostov (Visit)

Prediction 24.45%4.09fair odd
EV +8.29%
Edge +1.87%
Kelly +2.42%
Growth +0.201%

assuming max odds 4.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.88%24.33%24.45%25.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.034.024.4327.03%24.82%24.88%22.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.11%3.83fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -0.630%
Kelly -0.860%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.70%26.22%26.11%27.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.623.673.7429.85%27.65%27.29%26.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CSKA Moscow (Local): 49.45%; FK Rostov (Visit): 24.45%; Draw: 26.11%. For FK Rostov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.09. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.12%EV -8.03%E -4.32%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.88%EV +8.29%E +1.87%K +2.42%G +0.201%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.99%EV -2.62%E -0.701%K -0.958%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-08 17:19
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.22%EV -12.98%E -7.37%K -17.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV +2.67%E +0.636%K +0.835%G +0.022%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -7.32%E -2.06%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 17:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.86%EV -6.55%E -3.46%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.44%EV +0.227%E +0.055%K +0.073%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.70%EV -2.36%E -0.630%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 17:20
Pinnacle🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.56%EV -3.58%E -1.84%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.53%EV -3.68%E -0.935%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.91%EV -2.62%E -0.701%K -0.958%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-08 17:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.64%EV -7.04%E -3.75%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.06%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.30%EV -12.54%E -3.74%K -5.34%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 17:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.73%EV -5.06%E -2.64%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -9.55%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.01%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 17:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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