The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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CSKA Moscow v FK Rostov

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 16:45 UTC

Final: CSKA Moscow 1–1 FK Rostov

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSKA Moscow (Local)

Prediction 45.48%2.20fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -2.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.09%45.48%46.03%48.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.052.092.1452.36%48.83%47.85%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Rostov (Visit)

Prediction 26.70%3.74fair odd
EV +6.82%
Edge +1.70%
Kelly +2.27%
Growth +0.155%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.23%26.70%26.20%27.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.723.704.0029.41%26.90%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.82%3.60fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.354%
Kelly -0.493%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.30%27.82%27.77%28.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.453.483.5529.85%28.99%28.74%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CSKA Moscow (Local): 45.48%; FK Rostov (Visit): 26.70%; Draw: 27.82%. For FK Rostov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.74. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.46%EV -9.04%E -4.52%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%EV +6.82%E +1.70%K +2.27%G +0.155%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.30%EV -1.26%E -0.354%K -0.493%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-21 16:31
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.24%EV -13.13%E -6.88%K -14.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV +1.48%E +0.388%K +0.527%G +0.008%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -6.82%E -2.04%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 16:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.06%EV -4.49%E -2.14%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.14%EV -1.19%E -0.323%K -0.442%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.80%EV -3.20%E -0.920%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-21 16:39
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 46.29%EV -4.95%E -2.37%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.22%EV -1.46%E -0.396%K -0.543%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.49%EV -2.09%E -0.594%K -0.830%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-21 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.09%EV -2.67%E -1.25%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -6.82%E -2.04%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.