The School of Odds
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CSKA Moscow v FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSKA Moscow (Local)

Prediction 53.74%1.86fair odd
EV -4.34%
Edge -2.44%
Kelly -5.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.62%53.74%54.10%54.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.761.781.7859.52%56.88%56.18%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit)

Prediction 19.51%5.13fair odd
EV +0.470%
Edge +0.091%
Kelly +0.113%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.78%19.51%19.14%20.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.564.884.975.1521.93%20.48%20.12%19.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.75%3.74fair odd
EV +0.305%
Edge +0.081%
Kelly +0.111%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.82%26.75%26.76%26.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.493.613.603.7528.65%27.73%27.78%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CSKA Moscow (Local): 53.74%; FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit): 19.51%; Draw: 26.75%. For FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.470%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.35%EV -4.34%E -2.44%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.78%EV +0.470%E +0.091%K +0.113%G +0.001%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.87%EV -3.71%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-21 12:55
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.26%EV -4.34%E -2.44%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.03I 19.88%NM 19.20%EV -1.87%E -0.372%K -0.464%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.54%EV -2.64%E -0.724%K -0.999%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-21 12:50
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.70%EV -4.87%E -2.75%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.97I 20.12%NM 19.48%EV -3.04%E -0.612%K -0.766%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.82%EV +0.305%E +0.081%K +0.111%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-21 12:50
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.62%EV -9.71%E -5.78%K -14.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -8.31%E -1.77%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -5.04%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-21 12:48
BetOnline.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.62%EV -4.34%E -2.44%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 20.54%EV -11.04%E -2.42%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 26.84%EV -6.65%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-21 12:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.