The School of Odds

CSKA Moscow v FC Baltika Kaliningrad

2026-07-24 17:00 UTC — Premier League - Russia

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

CSKA Moscow (Local)

Prediction 46.15%2.17fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.37%46.15%46.15%47.09%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.952.052.082.1051%49%48%48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit)

Prediction 25.29%3.95fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.550%
Kelly -0.741%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.14%25.29%25.29%25.51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.603.773.793.8728%27%26%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.56%3.50fair odd
EV +1.67%
Edge +0.470%
Kelly +0.653%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 3.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.41%28.56%28.56%29.50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.233.413.423.5631%29%29%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet2.10I 47.62%NM 46.89%EV -3.08%E -1.47%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 25.45%EV -2.13%E -0.550%K -0.741%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.66%EV +1.67%E +0.470%K +0.653%G +0.011%1.5%2026-07-10 17:59
Marathon Bet2.06I 48.54%NM 46.93%EV -4.93%E -2.39%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.44%EV -3.90%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -0.041%E -0.012%K -0.017%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-10 17:54
Bovada1.95I 51.28%NM 47.09%EV -10.01%E -5.13%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.51%EV -8.96%E -2.49%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -4.33%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-10 17:59
Pinnacle2.10I 47.62%NM 45.37%EV -3.08%E -1.47%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.14%EV -4.15%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.50%EV -7.75%E -2.40%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.