Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSKA Moscow v FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Kickoff: 2026-07-24 17:00 UTC

Final: CSKA Moscow 2–1 FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSKA Moscow (Local)

Prediction 47.35%2.11fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.26%47.35%47.31%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.002.032.0552.36%49.90%49.26%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit)

Prediction 24.00%4.17fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.390%
Kelly -0.515%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.62%24.00%23.80%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.853.973.954.1025.97%25.19%25.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.65%3.49fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.594%
Kelly -0.839%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.09%28.65%28.89%28.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.323.353.4231.25%30.10%29.85%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.05I 48.78%NM 47.35%EV -2.93%E -1.43%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 24.02%EV -3.04%E -0.752%K -0.999%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.63%EV -2.89%E -0.852%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-24 16:50
Marathon Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 47.47%EV -3.40%E -1.67%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.62%EV -1.60%E -0.390%K -0.515%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.91%EV -4.04%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-24 16:00
Pinnacle2.03I 49.26%NM 47.33%EV -3.87%E -1.91%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.57%EV -6.16%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.09%EV -2.03%E -0.594%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-24 16:55
BetOnline.ag1.99I 50.25%NM 47.26%EV -5.77%E -2.90%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -5.20%E -1.32%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -6.90%E -2.12%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-24 16:50
Bovada1.91I 52.36%NM 47.78%EV -9.56%E -5.00%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.70%EV -7.60%E -1.97%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -8.33%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-24 16:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.