The School of Odds
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CSKA Moscow v Dinamo Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CSKA Moscow (Local)

Prediction 41.53%2.41fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.35%41.44%41.53%42.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.282.292.3545.45%43.80%43.67%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dinamo Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 31.85%3.14fair odd
EV -1.28%
Edge -0.412%
Kelly -0.609%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.21%31.92%31.85%32.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.962.963.1035.71%33.80%33.78%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.62%3.76fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.550%
Kelly -0.756%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.30%26.64%26.62%26.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.563.583.6829.41%28.10%27.93%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CSKA Moscow (Local): 41.53%; Dinamo Moscow (Visit): 31.85%; Draw: 26.62%. For Dinamo Moscow (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -1.28%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.27%EV -2.40%E -1.02%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.22%EV -4.14%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.50%EV -2.56%E -0.699%K -0.962%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-08 16:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.06%EV -4.48%E -1.95%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.21%EV -1.28%E -0.412%K -0.609%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.73%EV -3.62%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-08 16:19
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.27%EV -4.89%E -2.14%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.43%EV -1.92%E -0.622%K -0.921%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.30%EV -2.03%E -0.550%K -0.756%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-08 16:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.09%EV -4.89%E -2.14%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.33%EV -7.33%E -2.52%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.58%EV -5.75%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 16:24
Codere (IT)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.35%EV -5.73%E -2.52%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.71%EV -10.83%E -3.87%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -9.48%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-08 15:50
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.50%EV -8.63%E -3.92%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.04%EV -9.24%E -3.24%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -8.15%E -2.36%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-08 16:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.