Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vitória SC v Rio Ave FC

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 19:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vitória SC (Local)

Prediction 50.99%1.96fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.53%50.92%51.11%52.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.821.831.9157.80%54.86%54.64%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rio Ave FC (Visit)

Prediction 22.09%4.53fair odd
EV +6.27%
Edge +1.30%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.103%

assuming max odds 4.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.73%22.03%22.03%24.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.234.254.8126.67%23.64%23.53%20.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.92%3.71fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -0.858%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.86%27.05%26.86%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.433.453.6032.26%29.19%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vitória SC (Local): 50.99%; Rio Ave FC (Visit): 22.09%; Draw: 26.92%. For Rio Ave FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.53. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.81, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.59%EV -6.19%E -3.36%K -7.37%G +0.000%4.81I 20.79%NM 19.73%EV +6.27%E +1.30%K +1.65%G +0.103%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.68%EV -10.89%E -3.29%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 11:55
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.70%E -3.66%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV +4.95%E +1.04%K +1.32%G +0.065%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 11:44
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.70%E -3.66%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV +4.95%E +1.04%K +1.32%G +0.065%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 11:50
1xBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.72%EV -2.62%E -1.37%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.70%EV +3.40%E +0.727%K +0.924%G +0.031%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.58%EV -8.74%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-24 02:54
Everygame🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -8.23%E -4.57%K -10.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV +1.63%E +0.355%K +0.454%G +0.007%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -13.86%E -4.33%K -6.30%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 12:45
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.83%EV -6.70%E -3.66%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -0.575%E -0.128%K -0.164%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 11:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.76%EV -6.19%E -3.36%K -7.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -0.575%E -0.128%K -0.164%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.48%EV -11.70%E -3.57%K -5.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-24 03:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.63%EV -6.19%E -3.36%K -7.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -0.575%E -0.128%K -0.164%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 19:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.63%EV -6.19%E -3.36%K -7.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -0.575%E -0.128%K -0.164%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 18:59
GTbets🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.46%EV -5.68%E -3.07%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.17%EV -2.56%E -0.581%K -0.752%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.37%EV -11.43%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 14:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -7.21%E -3.96%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -2.78%E -0.633%K -0.819%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 21:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -7.21%E -3.96%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -2.78%E -0.633%K -0.819%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 21:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -9.76%E -5.51%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -2.78%E -0.633%K -0.819%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -3.09%E -0.858%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 23:34
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.96%EV -6.70%E -3.66%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -2.78%E -0.633%K -0.819%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -9.82%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 11:38
Casumo🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.73%EV -7.72%E -4.26%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.52%EV -3.89%E -0.894%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 21:20
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.73%EV -7.72%E -4.26%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.52%EV -3.89%E -0.894%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 21:20
Bally Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.73%EV -7.72%E -4.26%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.52%EV -3.89%E -0.894%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 21:19
betPARX🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.73%EV -7.72%E -4.26%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.52%EV -3.89%E -0.894%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 21:19
TABtouch🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -8.23%E -4.57%K -10.28%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -3.89%E -0.894%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-21 21:20
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -8.23%E -4.57%K -10.28%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -3.89%E -0.894%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-21 21:19
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.40%EV -11.80%E -6.82%K -16.16%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.94%EV -4.33%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-23 11:34
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.68%EV -8.74%E -4.88%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -4.99%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-21 21:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.68%EV -8.74%E -4.88%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -4.99%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-21 21:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.68%EV -8.74%E -4.88%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -4.99%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-21 21:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.82%EV -9.25%E -5.19%K -11.85%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -4.99%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.73%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-21 21:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.82%EV -9.25%E -5.19%K -11.85%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -4.99%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.73%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-21 21:20
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -4.15%E -2.21%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 11:34
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -4.15%E -2.21%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 11:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.77%EV -10.27%E -5.83%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.80%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-21 21:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.77%EV -10.27%E -5.83%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.80%EV -8.47%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-21 21:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -5.68%E -3.07%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -7.20%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 19:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -6.70%E -3.66%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -7.20%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 19:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.19%EV -7.21%E -3.96%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -7.20%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 19:34
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -4.66%E -2.49%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -7.20%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -13.86%E -4.33%K -6.30%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 11:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.94%EV -9.25%E -5.19%K -11.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.59%EV -7.20%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -11.16%E -3.38%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-24 03:50
LeoVegas🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.71%EV -11.29%E -6.49%K -15.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -7.20%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.86%EV -9.82%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-21 21:20
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -3.13%E -1.65%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -11.62%E -2.91%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -3.09%E -0.858%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-21 14:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -4.15%E -2.21%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -11.62%E -2.91%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-22 22:01
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.68%E -3.07%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -11.62%E -2.91%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -3.09%E -0.858%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 14:25
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.68%E -3.07%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -11.62%E -2.91%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -3.09%E -0.858%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 14:24
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -6.70%E -3.66%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -11.62%E -2.91%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -3.09%E -0.858%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 14:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -5.68%E -3.07%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -11.62%E -2.91%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-24 02:25
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -6.70%E -3.66%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -11.62%E -2.91%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-24 03:50
Bet Right🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.94%EV -5.17%E -2.78%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -12.73%E -3.22%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-24 02:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.57%EV -8.23%E -4.57%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.04%EV -12.73%E -3.22%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-21 14:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.57%EV -8.23%E -4.57%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.04%EV -12.73%E -3.22%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-21 14:35
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -5.68%E -3.07%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -13.83%E -3.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-24 03:50
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -5.68%E -3.07%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -13.83%E -3.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-24 03:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -5.68%E -3.07%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -13.83%E -3.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-24 03:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -5.68%E -3.07%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -13.83%E -3.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-24 03:50
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -8.23%E -4.57%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -13.83%E -3.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-22 13:34
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -6.70%E -3.66%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -16.04%E -4.22%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-22 19:35
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -6.70%E -3.66%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -17.15%E -4.57%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-24 02:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.53%EV -8.23%E -4.57%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.29%EV -17.15%E -4.57%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.18%EV -16.55%E -5.34%K -7.88%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-21 14:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.91I 52.36%NM 51.59%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.42%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.99%1.5%2026-04-23 23:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.87I 53.48%NM 51.92%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.11%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97%3.0%2026-04-24 03:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.87I 53.48%NM 51.92%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.11%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97%3.0%2026-04-24 03:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 52.19%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.82%3.6%2026-04-24 03:50
Smarkets1.88I 53.19%NM 51.35%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.45%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.19%3.6%2026-04-24 03:40
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 50.52%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.54%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.94%7.0%2026-04-24 03:35