Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vitória SC v Rio Ave FC

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

51%

23%

27%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vitória SC (Local)

Prediction 50.59%1.98fair odd

EV -2.86%

Edge -1.49%

Kelly -3.11%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

48.70%50.58%50.52%51.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.731.831.831.9257.80%54.78%54.79%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rio Ave FC (Visit)

Prediction 22.59%4.43fair odd

EV +1.67%

Edge +0.370%

Kelly +0.476%

Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.36%22.31%22.78%23.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.804.084.054.5026.32%24.54%24.69%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.81%3.73fair odd

EV +0.554%

Edge +0.148%

Kelly +0.202%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

25.12%27.10%26.70%29.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.103.483.503.7532.26%28.70%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vitória SC (Local): 50.59%; Rio Ave FC (Visit): 22.59%; Draw: 26.81%. For Rio Ave FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.43. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.67%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
Betway🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%EV -7.41%E -4.05%K -8.93%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV +1.67%E +0.370%K +0.476%G +0.008%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -16.88%E -5.44%K -8.04%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-04-19 16:15
Coolbet🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -7.41%E -4.05%K -8.93%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.11%E -1.22%K -1.60%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV +0.554%E +0.148%K +0.202%G +0.001%	5.1%	2026-04-19 18:45
Betsson🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 48.70%EV -2.86%E -1.49%K -3.11%G +0.000%	4.15I 24.10%NM 22.53%EV -6.24%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -12.85%E -3.95%K -5.71%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-19 15:50
NordicBet🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 48.70%EV -2.86%E -1.49%K -3.11%G +0.000%	4.15I 24.10%NM 22.53%EV -6.24%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -12.85%E -3.95%K -5.71%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-19 15:50
SportsBet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -8.93%E -4.96%K -11.17%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -7.37%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -0.786%E -0.213%K -0.291%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-19 16:05
FanDuel🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -8.93%E -4.96%K -11.17%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -7.37%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -0.786%E -0.213%K -0.291%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-19 16:05
Betr (AU)🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.30%EV -7.92%E -4.35%K -9.66%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -7.37%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.47%E -0.963%K -1.33%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-04-19 15:55
Bet Right🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 51.43%EV -8.43%E -4.66%K -10.40%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -7.37%E -1.80%K -2.38%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -3.47%E -0.963%K -1.33%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-04-19 18:45
Paddy Power🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -8.93%E -4.96%K -11.17%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -9.63%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -0.786%E -0.213%K -0.291%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-19 16:03
888sport🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -6.40%E -3.46%K -7.53%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -9.63%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-19 16:45
William Hill🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -6.40%E -3.46%K -7.53%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -9.63%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-19 16:45
888sport (SE)🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -6.40%E -3.46%K -7.53%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -9.63%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-19 16:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -6.40%E -3.46%K -7.53%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -9.63%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-19 16:45
betfred_uk🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -8.93%E -4.96%K -11.17%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -9.63%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-04-19 16:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 50.24%EV -12.47%E -7.21%K -17.09%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 21.73%EV -9.63%E -2.41%K -3.21%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 28.04%EV -16.88%E -5.44%K -8.04%G +0.000%	15.1%	2026-04-19 16:30
Sky Bet🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -11.46%E -6.55%K -15.28%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -14.15%E -3.72%K -5.05%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%	12.0%	2026-04-19 16:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.