Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vitória SC v Moreirense FC

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 14:32 UTC

Final: Vitória SC 1–1 Moreirense FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vitória SC (Local)

Prediction 62.58%1.60fair odd
EV -4.25%
Edge -2.78%
Kelly -8.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.67%62.60%62.56%64.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.481.491.5370.42%67.58%67.11%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Moreirense FC (Visit)

Prediction 14.68%6.81fair odd
EV +4.51%
Edge +0.634%
Kelly +0.738%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 7.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.53%14.70%14.65%16.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.606.286.357.1217.86%15.93%15.75%14.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.74%4.40fair odd
EV +0.042%
Edge +0.009%
Kelly +0.012%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.15%22.71%22.79%23.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.104.054.4025.97%24.39%24.69%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vitória SC (Local): 62.58%; Moreirense FC (Visit): 14.68%; Draw: 22.74%. For Moreirense FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.97%EV -4.25%E -2.78%K -8.01%G +0.000%7.12I 14.04%NM 13.53%EV +4.51%E +0.634%K +0.738%G +0.033%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.50%EV -6.78%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-20 14:29
Bovada🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.61%EV -6.12%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV -0.916%E -0.136%K -0.159%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-20 14:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -9.25%E -6.38%K -20.56%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV -1.65%E -0.246%K -0.290%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -2.23%E -0.519%K -0.676%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 14:04
BetUS🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.95%EV -4.25%E -2.78%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.36%EV -3.12%E -0.472%K -0.557%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-20 14:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.10%EV -4.87%E -3.21%K -9.37%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.30%EV -3.12%E -0.472%K -0.557%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 14:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.10%EV -4.87%E -3.21%K -9.37%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.30%EV -3.12%E -0.472%K -0.557%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 14:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.84%EV -7.38%E -4.98%K -15.37%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.20%EV -3.85%E -0.588%K -0.694%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.96%EV -7.92%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 14:30
GTbets🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.65%EV -8.63%E -5.91%K -18.75%G +0.000%6.51I 15.36%NM 14.28%EV -4.44%E -0.682%K -0.806%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.07%EV -4.28%E -1.02%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 14:04
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.63%EV -6.12%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.69%EV +0.042%E +0.009%K +0.012%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-20 13:49
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.67%EV -4.87%E -3.21%K -9.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.65%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV -4.51%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 14:28
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.40%EV -6.12%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.96%EV -1.55%E -0.358%K -0.465%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 13:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.32%EV -4.87%E -3.21%K -9.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.57%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -6.78%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-20 14:29
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.48%EV -5.50%E -3.64%K -10.78%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -6.78%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 14:04
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.62%EV -7.38%E -4.98%K -15.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.49%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -2.23%E -0.519%K -0.676%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 14:09
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.29%EV -7.38%E -4.98%K -15.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -4.51%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-20 14:05
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -6.12%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 14:04
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.95%EV -7.38%E -4.98%K -15.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -6.78%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 14:04
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.07%EV -9.25%E -6.38%K -20.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 14:29
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.07%EV -9.25%E -6.38%K -20.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 14:25
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.45%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 14:04
Casumo🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.16%EV -6.75%E -4.53%K -13.77%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -6.05%E -0.946%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.37%E -0.793%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.16%EV -6.75%E -4.53%K -13.77%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -6.05%E -0.946%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.37%E -0.793%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 14:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.16%EV -6.75%E -4.53%K -13.77%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -6.05%E -0.946%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.37%E -0.793%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 14:09
Grosvenor🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.16%EV -6.75%E -4.53%K -13.77%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -6.05%E -0.946%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.37%E -0.793%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 14:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.16%EV -6.75%E -4.53%K -13.77%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -6.05%E -0.946%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.37%E -0.793%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 14:10
Bally Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.16%EV -6.75%E -4.53%K -13.77%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -6.05%E -0.946%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.37%E -0.793%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 14:10
betPARX🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.16%EV -6.75%E -4.53%K -13.77%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -6.05%E -0.946%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.37%E -0.793%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 14:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.16%EV -6.75%E -4.53%K -13.77%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -6.05%E -0.946%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.37%E -0.793%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 14:09
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.44%EV -6.12%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.63%EV -7.52%E -1.19%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -12.46%E -3.24%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 14:05
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.44%EV -6.12%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.63%EV -7.52%E -1.19%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -12.46%E -3.24%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 14:00
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.35%EV -7.38%E -4.98%K -15.37%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.00%EV -8.26%E -1.32%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.65%EV -1.55%E -0.358%K -0.465%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 13:55
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.93%EV -7.38%E -4.98%K -15.37%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.90%EV -8.26%E -1.32%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -4.51%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 13:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.93%EV -7.38%E -4.98%K -15.37%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.90%EV -8.26%E -1.32%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -4.51%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.92%EV -6.12%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -8.26%E -1.32%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 14:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.13%EV -9.25%E -6.38%K -20.56%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.77%EV -10.46%E -1.71%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -11.33%E -2.90%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.12%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.51%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 14:04
Bet Right🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -6.12%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -6.78%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 14:30
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.12%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 14:24
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.12%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 14:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.12%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 14:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.12%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 14:14
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.12%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 14:24
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.67%EV -4.87%E -3.21%K -9.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -12.46%E -3.24%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 14:24
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.45%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -1.55%E -0.358%K -0.465%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 14:04
Unibet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.45%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 14:09
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.45%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 14:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.45%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 14:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.45%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 14:09
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.45%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 14:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.45%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 14:09
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.45%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 14:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.66%EV -10.50%E -7.35%K -24.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.93%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-20 14:09
Betclic (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 62.84%EV -11.13%E -7.84%K -26.50%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.12%EV -13.39%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.03%EV -7.92%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-20 14:03
Unibet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 62.84%EV -11.13%E -7.84%K -26.50%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.12%EV -13.39%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.03%EV -7.92%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-20 14:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.19%EV -8.00%E -5.44%K -17.02%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.04%EV -16.33%E -2.86%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -4.51%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 14:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.85%EV -8.63%E -5.91%K -18.75%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.13%EV -17.80%E -3.18%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.02%EV -6.78%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-20 14:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.26%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.11%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64%0.4%2026-09-20 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.41%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.05%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.8%2026-09-20 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.56%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.00%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.45%1.2%2026-09-20 14:30
Smarkets◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.56%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.00%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.45%1.2%2026-09-20 14:30
Matchbook◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.56%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.00%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.45%1.2%2026-09-20 14:30
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 63.71%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.74%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.55%1.9%2026-09-20 14:10