Language:English
Sporting Lisbon v Vitória SC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sporting Lisbon (Local)
Prediction 74.82%1.34fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -2.10%
Kelly -9.11%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.76%74.85%74.83%76.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.251.251.3083.33%80.27%80.00%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vitória SC (Visit)
Prediction 9.63%10.39fair odd
EV +5.89%
Edge +0.536%
Kelly +0.589%
Growth +0.035%
assuming max odds 11.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.60%9.66%9.58%10.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.509.6910.0011.0011.76%10.32%10.00%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 15.55%6.43fair odd
EV +4.21%
Edge +0.628%
Kelly +0.738%
Growth +0.031%
assuming max odds 6.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.89%15.50%15.59%17.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.835.786.7020.00%17.15%17.32%14.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sporting Lisbon (Local): 74.82%; Vitória SC (Visit): 9.63%; Draw: 15.55%. For Vitória SC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.39. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.89%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV +5.89%E +0.536%K +0.589%G +0.035% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -6.68%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-04 19:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.16%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 10.77I 9.29%NM 8.91%EV +3.68%E +0.342%K +0.377%G +0.014% | 6.43I 15.55%NM 14.92%EV +0.009%E +0.001%K +0.002%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-04 19:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.20%EV -4.98%E -3.92%K -18.44%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV +1.08%E +0.103%K +0.114%G +0.001% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.83%EV -12.90%E -2.30%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.20%EV -4.98%E -3.92%K -18.44%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV +1.08%E +0.103%K +0.114%G +0.001% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.83%EV -12.90%E -2.30%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.92%EV -7.97%E -6.48%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV +1.08%E +0.103%K +0.114%G +0.001% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.18%EV -4.35%E -0.707%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-04 19:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.29%EV -7.22%E -5.83%K -30.10%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV +1.08%E +0.103%K +0.114%G +0.001% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.82%EV -8.23%E -1.40%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-04 18:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.29%EV -7.22%E -5.83%K -30.10%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV +1.08%E +0.103%K +0.114%G +0.001% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.82%EV -8.23%E -1.40%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-04 18:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -8.72%E -7.15%K -39.64%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV +1.08%E +0.103%K +0.114%G +0.001% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -6.68%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-04 18:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -6.68%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-04 19:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -6.68%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-04 18:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -6.68%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-04 19:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -4.98%E -3.92%K -18.44%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -14.46%E -2.63%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -4.98%E -3.92%K -18.44%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -14.46%E -2.63%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -4.98%E -3.92%K -18.44%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -14.46%E -2.63%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -4.98%E -3.92%K -18.44%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -14.46%E -2.63%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -7.22%E -5.83%K -30.10%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -6.68%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-04 18:58 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -10.57%E -1.84%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-04 19:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -10.57%E -1.84%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-04 18:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -10.57%E -1.84%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-04 19:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -14.46%E -2.63%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -14.46%E -2.63%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -14.46%E -2.63%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -14.46%E -2.63%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.72%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -16.01%E -2.96%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.72%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -16.01%E -2.96%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.72%E -7.15%K -39.64%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -6.68%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-04 18:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.95%EV -8.72%E -7.15%K -39.64%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -3.73%E -0.373%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -10.57%E -1.84%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-04 18:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.10%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -8.55%E -0.900%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -2.79%E -0.446%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-04 18:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.31%EV -8.72%E -7.15%K -39.64%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -8.55%E -0.900%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.89%EV +4.21%E +0.628%K +0.738%G +0.031% | 7.4% | 2026-05-04 18:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.66%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -8.55%E -0.900%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.57%EV -12.90%E -2.30%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-04 18:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.98%EV -8.72%E -7.15%K -39.64%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -8.55%E -0.900%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV +1.10%E +0.169%K +0.200%G +0.002% | 7.9% | 2026-05-04 18:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.13%EV -9.47%E -7.82%K -45.09%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -8.55%E -0.900%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV +1.10%E +0.169%K +0.200%G +0.002% | 8.6% | 2026-05-04 18:28 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -8.55%E -0.900%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -14.46%E -2.63%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-04 18:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 73.68%EV -7.97%E -6.48%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.54%EV -8.55%E -0.900%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.78%EV -16.01%E -2.96%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 73.68%EV -7.97%E -6.48%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.54%EV -8.55%E -0.900%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.78%EV -16.01%E -2.96%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.20%EV -10.22%E -8.51%K -51.08%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.50%EV -8.55%E -0.900%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.30%EV -8.23%E -1.40%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-04 19:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.60%EV -8.72%E -7.15%K -39.64%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -8.55%E -0.900%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.94%EV -17.57%E -3.31%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.19%EV -10.22%E -8.51%K -51.08%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.24%EV -8.55%E -0.900%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -22.23%E -4.45%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-04 18:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.09%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.09%EV -10.95%E -1.18%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.82%EV -8.23%E -1.40%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-04 18:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.76%EV -2.73%E -2.10%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 9.19I 10.88%NM 10.58%EV -11.53%E -1.25%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.63I 15.08%NM 14.66%EV +3.12%E +0.471%K +0.554%G +0.017% | 2.9% | 2026-05-04 19:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.75%EV -3.48%E -2.70%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 9.15I 10.93%NM 10.40%EV -11.92%E -1.30%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -6.68%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-04 17:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -13.36%E -1.48%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -6.68%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-04 18:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.83%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -13.36%E -1.48%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.91%EV -9.79%E -1.69%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-04 18:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.73%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -13.36%E -1.48%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -10.57%E -1.84%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 18:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.73%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -13.36%E -1.48%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -10.57%E -1.84%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.73%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -13.36%E -1.48%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -10.57%E -1.84%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 18:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.00%EV -10.22%E -8.51%K -51.08%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -13.36%E -1.48%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -6.68%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-04 18:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.27%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.63%EV -15.29%E -1.74%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.09%EV -3.57%E -0.575%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 19:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.27%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.03%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.63%EV -15.29%E -1.74%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.09%EV -3.57%E -0.575%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 19:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.54%EV -7.97%E -6.48%K -34.66%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -18.17%E -2.14%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.67%EV -2.79%E -0.446%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-04 18:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -18.17%E -2.14%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -14.46%E -2.63%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-04 18:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.40%EV -9.47%E -7.82%K -45.09%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.59%EV -18.17%E -2.14%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -6.68%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-04 18:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 78.11% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 8.00% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.89% | 0.0% | 2026-05-04 19:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.30% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.84% | 0.3% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.30% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.84% | 0.3% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.30% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.84% | 0.3% | 2026-05-04 19:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.82% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.17% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.01% | 2.0% | 2026-05-04 19:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.50% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.81% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.68% | 2.1% | 2026-05-04 18:25 |