Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.44
assuming max odds 8.50
assuming max odds 5.20
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sporting Lisbon (Local): 67.97%; Vitória SC (Visit): 12.88%; Draw: 19.15%. For Vitória SC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.77. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.45%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.56%EV -9.60%E -7.22%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV +9.45%E +1.11%K +1.26%G +0.119% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -2.32%E -0.455%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 18:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.56%EV -9.60%E -7.22%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV +9.45%E +1.11%K +1.26%G +0.119% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -2.32%E -0.455%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 18:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.56%EV -9.60%E -7.22%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV +9.45%E +1.11%K +1.26%G +0.119% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -2.32%E -0.455%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 18:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.56%EV -9.60%E -7.22%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV +9.45%E +1.11%K +1.26%G +0.119% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -2.32%E -0.455%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 18:29 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.56%EV -9.60%E -7.22%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV +9.45%E +1.11%K +1.26%G +0.119% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -2.32%E -0.455%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 18:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.56%EV -9.60%E -7.22%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV +9.45%E +1.11%K +1.26%G +0.119% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -2.32%E -0.455%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 18:28 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.96%EV -4.16%E -2.95%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.15%EV +3.01%E +0.376%K +0.430%G +0.013% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.88%EV -1.36%E -0.264%K -0.328%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-14 18:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.04%EV -6.20%E -4.49%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV +3.01%E +0.376%K +0.430%G +0.013% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -4.23%E -0.847%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 19:07 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.51%EV -6.88%E -5.02%K -18.60%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV +3.01%E +0.376%K +0.430%G +0.013% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -9.02%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-14 19:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -9.60%E -7.22%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV +3.01%E +0.376%K +0.430%G +0.013% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-14 18:38 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.04%EV -11.64%E -8.95%K -38.79%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV +3.01%E +0.376%K +0.430%G +0.013% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -6.15%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-14 18:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.04%EV -11.64%E -8.95%K -38.79%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV +3.01%E +0.376%K +0.430%G +0.013% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -6.15%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-14 18:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.04%EV -11.64%E -8.95%K -38.79%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV +3.01%E +0.376%K +0.430%G +0.013% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -6.15%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-14 18:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -11.64%E -8.95%K -38.79%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.34%EV +3.01%E +0.376%K +0.430%G +0.013% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.90%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-14 18:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -11.64%E -8.95%K -38.79%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.34%EV +3.01%E +0.376%K +0.430%G +0.013% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.90%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-14 18:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -11.64%E -8.95%K -38.79%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.34%EV +3.01%E +0.376%K +0.430%G +0.013% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.90%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-14 18:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.30%EV -8.24%E -6.10%K -23.54%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.99%EV +0.434%E +0.056%K +0.064%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -4.23%E -0.847%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-14 18:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.23%EV -6.20%E -4.49%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.15%EV -0.210%E -0.027%K -0.031%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-14 19:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -7.56%E -5.56%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.03%EV -0.210%E -0.027%K -0.031%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.42%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-14 18:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.15%EV -3.48%E -2.45%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.57%EV -0.854%E -0.111%K -0.127%G +0.000% | 5.02I 19.92%NM 19.28%EV -3.85%E -0.767%K -0.958%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-14 18:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.15%EV -3.48%E -2.45%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.57%EV -0.854%E -0.111%K -0.127%G +0.000% | 5.02I 19.92%NM 19.28%EV -3.85%E -0.767%K -0.958%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-14 18:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.10%EV -3.48%E -2.45%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.56%EV -0.854%E -0.111%K -0.127%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.34%EV -4.23%E -0.847%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-14 18:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.07%EV -5.52%E -3.97%K -14.16%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.62%EV -3.43%E -0.457%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.31%EV -6.15%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-14 18:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.66%EV -5.52%E -3.97%K -14.16%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -3.43%E -0.457%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.80%EV -9.02%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-14 19:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.56%E -5.56%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -3.43%E -0.457%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.23%E -0.847%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-14 18:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.98%EV -6.88%E -5.02%K -18.60%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -3.43%E -0.457%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -9.02%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-14 18:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.98%EV -6.88%E -5.02%K -18.60%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -3.43%E -0.457%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -9.02%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-14 18:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -7.56%E -5.56%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -3.43%E -0.457%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -9.02%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-14 18:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.19%EV -9.60%E -7.22%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -3.43%E -0.457%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -11.89%E -2.59%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-14 19:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.41%EV -12.32%E -9.55%K -42.48%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.94%EV -3.43%E -0.457%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.65%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-14 18:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.41%EV -12.32%E -9.55%K -42.48%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.94%EV -3.43%E -0.457%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.65%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-14 18:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.41%EV -12.32%E -9.55%K -42.48%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.94%EV -3.43%E -0.457%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.65%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-14 18:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.64%EV -10.28%E -7.79%K -32.12%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.68%EV -6.65%E -0.917%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -0.403%E -0.077%K -0.096%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-14 19:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.62%EV -6.20%E -4.49%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.14%EV -8.58%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.24%EV -7.11%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-14 19:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -6.20%E -4.49%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -9.87%E -1.41%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -4.23%E -0.847%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 18:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -6.20%E -4.49%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -9.87%E -1.41%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -4.23%E -0.847%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 18:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.47%EV -4.84%E -3.46%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -9.87%E -1.41%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -11.89%E -2.59%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-14 18:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.47%EV -4.84%E -3.46%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -9.87%E -1.41%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -11.89%E -2.59%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-14 18:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.47%EV -4.84%E -3.46%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -9.87%E -1.41%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -11.89%E -2.59%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-14 18:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.47%EV -4.84%E -3.46%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -9.87%E -1.41%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -11.89%E -2.59%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-14 18:49 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -7.56%E -5.56%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -9.87%E -1.41%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -11.89%E -2.59%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-14 18:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -7.56%E -5.56%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -9.87%E -1.41%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -11.89%E -2.59%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-14 18:39 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -7.56%E -5.56%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -9.87%E -1.41%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -11.89%E -2.59%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-14 18:57 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -10.28%E -7.79%K -32.12%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV -9.87%E -1.41%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.88%EV -2.32%E -0.455%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-14 19:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.87%EV -8.92%E -6.66%K -26.23%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.18%EV -11.15%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-14 19:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.07%EV -4.84%E -3.46%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.60%EV -12.44%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.33%EV -12.85%E -2.82%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-14 19:03 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.07%EV -4.84%E -3.46%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.60%EV -12.44%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.33%EV -12.85%E -2.82%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-14 19:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.71%EV -4.84%E -3.46%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -13.09%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-14 19:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.15%EV -4.84%E -3.46%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV -13.09%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -11.89%E -2.59%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-14 19:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.50%EV -9.60%E -7.22%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.40%EV -13.73%E -2.05%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.10%EV -9.98%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-14 19:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -2.12%E -1.47%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -16.31%E -2.51%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-14 19:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -2.12%E -1.47%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -16.31%E -2.51%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-14 19:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -7.56%E -5.56%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -16.31%E -2.51%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -9.02%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-14 18:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.06%EV -8.92%E -6.66%K -26.23%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -16.31%E -2.51%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.12%EV -9.98%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-14 19:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.21%EV -2.12%E -1.47%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -19.52%E -3.12%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -9.02%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-14 19:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.21%EV -2.12%E -1.47%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -19.52%E -3.12%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -9.02%E -1.90%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-14 19:09 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 75.75% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 8.54% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 15.71% | -6.4% | 2026-08-14 19:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.14% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 11.07% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.79% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 19:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.14% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 11.07% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.79% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 19:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.96% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.75% | 0.7% | 2026-08-14 19:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.96% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.75% | 0.7% | 2026-08-14 18:49 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.57% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.78% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65% | 1.9% | 2026-08-14 18:45 |