The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Sporting Lisbon v Moreirense FC

2026-11-07 20:30 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sporting Lisbon (Local)

Prediction 79.97%1.25fair odd
EV -5.63%
Edge -4.77%
Kelly -31.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.28%79.84%80.15%80.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.161.171.1890.91%86.34%85.47%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Moreirense FC (Visit)

Prediction 7.62%13.13fair odd
EV +6.63%
Edge +0.474%
Kelly +0.510%
Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.73%7.73%7.46%10.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5011.6612.0014.0011.76%8.58%8.33%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.41%8.06fair odd
EV -0.728%
Edge -0.091%
Kelly -0.104%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.83%12.43%12.40%14.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.217.508.0016.67%13.86%13.33%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sporting Lisbon (Local): 79.97%; Moreirense FC (Visit): 7.62%; Draw: 12.41%. For Moreirense FC (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.13. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 14.00, producing a positive expected value of +6.63%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -5.63%E -4.77%K -31.28%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +6.63%E +0.474%K +0.510%G +0.034%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -13.14%E -1.88%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-31 16:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.19%EV -7.23%E -6.23%K -45.19%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.89%EV +2.83%E +0.209%K +0.226%G +0.006%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.92%EV -10.66%E -1.48%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 17:20
Fanatics🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.89%EV -6.43%E -5.50%K -37.82%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -0.982%E -0.076%K -0.082%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -0.728%E -0.091%K -0.104%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-31 17:10
Pinnacle🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.58%EV -5.63%E -4.77%K -31.28%G +0.000%12.75I 7.84%NM 7.46%EV -2.89%E -0.226%K -0.246%G +0.000%7.95I 12.58%NM 11.96%EV -1.35%E -0.170%K -0.194%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-31 16:50
NordicBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.16%EV -7.23%E -6.23%K -45.19%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.44%EV -4.79%E -0.383%K -0.417%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 16:00
Betsson🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.16%EV -7.23%E -6.23%K -45.19%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.44%EV -4.79%E -0.383%K -0.417%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 16:00
Bovada🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.10%EV -6.43%E -5.50%K -37.82%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV -8.60%E -0.717%K -0.782%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.09%EV -3.83%E -0.494%K -0.568%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 16:58
William Hill🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -6.43%E -5.50%K -37.82%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -8.60%E -0.717%K -0.782%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 17:10
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -6.43%E -5.50%K -37.82%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -8.60%E -0.717%K -0.782%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 17:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -6.43%E -5.50%K -37.82%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -8.60%E -0.717%K -0.782%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 17:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -6.43%E -5.50%K -37.82%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -8.60%E -0.717%K -0.782%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 17:10
betfred_uk🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.28%EV -6.43%E -5.50%K -37.82%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -8.60%E -0.717%K -0.782%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -19.34%E -2.98%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-31 16:01
Betclic (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 78.73%EV -9.63%E -8.52%K -74.07%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.09%EV -16.22%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.18%EV -16.24%E -2.41%K -2.82%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-31 16:50
Betway🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.55%EV -6.43%E -5.50%K -37.82%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -23.83%E -2.38%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.25%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 16:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 76.98%EV -12.03%E -10.93%K -120.28%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 8.91%EV -27.64%E -2.91%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.11%EV -25.55%E -4.26%K -5.11%G +0.000%18.1%2026-10-31 16:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 77.19%EV -8.83%E -7.75%K -63.07%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.78%EV -31.45%E -3.49%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.04%EV -16.24%E -2.41%K -2.82%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-31 17:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 76.28%EV -10.43%E -9.31%K -86.91%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.05%EV -35.26%E -4.15%K -4.70%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 13.67%EV -22.44%E -3.59%K -4.28%G +0.000%17.1%2026-10-31 17:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.19I 84.03%NM 82.36%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.86%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.78%2.0%2026-10-31 19:10