Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sporting Lisbon v Académico de Viseu

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 20:30 UTC

Final: Sporting Lisbon 1–2 Académico de Viseu

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sporting Lisbon (Local)

Prediction 74.63%1.34fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -2.89%
Kelly -12.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.68%74.78%74.57%76.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.231.241.2987.72%81.05%80.65%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Académico de Viseu (Visit)

Prediction 10.08%9.93fair odd
EV +10.83%
Edge +0.985%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.117%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.57%10.02%10.11%11.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.259.639.5011.0012.12%10.39%10.53%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.29%6.54fair odd
EV +2.45%
Edge +0.366%
Kelly +0.430%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 6.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.89%15.20%15.32%16.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.996.006.7018.18%16.69%16.67%14.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sporting Lisbon (Local): 74.63%; Académico de Viseu (Visit): 10.08%; Draw: 15.29%. For Académico de Viseu (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.93. 25 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.12%EV -6.71%E -5.37%K -26.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +10.83%E +0.985%K +1.08%G +0.117%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.22%EV -4.43%E -0.709%K -0.844%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 19:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.99%EV -7.45%E -6.01%K -31.06%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV +10.83%E +0.985%K +1.08%G +0.117%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.45%EV -6.73%E -1.10%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 19:32
Svenska Spel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.99%EV -7.45%E -6.01%K -31.06%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV +10.83%E +0.985%K +1.08%G +0.117%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.45%EV -6.73%E -1.10%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 19:33
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.99%EV -7.45%E -6.01%K -31.06%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV +10.83%E +0.985%K +1.08%G +0.117%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.45%EV -6.73%E -1.10%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 19:32
Casumo🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.99%EV -7.45%E -6.01%K -31.06%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV +10.83%E +0.985%K +1.08%G +0.117%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.45%EV -6.73%E -1.10%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 19:32
ATG (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.99%EV -7.45%E -6.01%K -31.06%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV +10.83%E +0.985%K +1.08%G +0.117%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.45%EV -6.73%E -1.10%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 19:33
betPARX🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.99%EV -7.45%E -6.01%K -31.06%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV +10.83%E +0.985%K +1.08%G +0.117%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.45%EV -6.73%E -1.10%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 19:32
Bally Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.99%EV -7.45%E -6.01%K -31.06%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV +10.83%E +0.985%K +1.08%G +0.117%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.45%EV -6.73%E -1.10%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-25 19:32
SportsBet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.40%EV -9.69%E -8.01%K -46.16%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.80%EV +5.79%E +0.552%K +0.610%G +0.035%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.79%EV -4.43%E -0.709%K -0.844%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 20:05
NordicBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.02%EV -8.20%E -6.67%K -35.65%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV +5.79%E +0.552%K +0.610%G +0.035%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.19%EV -12.84%E -2.25%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 19:46
Pinnacle🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.00%EV -5.96%E -4.73%K -22.93%G +0.000%10.16I 9.84%NM 9.43%EV +2.37%E +0.233%K +0.258%G +0.006%6.57I 15.22%NM 14.58%EV +0.461%E +0.070%K +0.083%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-25 20:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.22%E -4.11%K -19.32%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV +0.754%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.81%EV -8.25%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-25 20:24
Bovada🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.06%EV -7.45%E -6.01%K -31.06%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV +0.754%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -0.609%E -0.094%K -0.111%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-25 20:06
FanDuel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -10.44%E -8.70%K -52.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV +0.754%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -0.609%E -0.094%K -0.111%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-25 20:03
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -10.44%E -8.70%K -52.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV +0.754%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -0.609%E -0.094%K -0.111%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-25 20:02
LiveScore Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.95%EV -8.95%E -7.33%K -40.67%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV +0.754%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -12.08%E -2.10%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 19:33
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.76%EV -10.44%E -8.70%K -52.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV +0.754%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -8.25%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 20:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.76%EV -10.44%E -8.70%K -52.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV +0.754%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -8.25%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 20:16
TABtouch🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.11%EV -9.69%E -8.01%K -46.16%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV +0.754%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.81%EV -12.08%E -2.10%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 19:32
BetRivers🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.11%EV -9.69%E -8.01%K -46.16%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV +0.754%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.81%EV -12.08%E -2.10%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 19:32
Unibet (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.26%EV -10.44%E -8.70%K -52.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV +0.754%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.71%EV -12.08%E -2.10%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-25 19:32
Unibet (NL)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.26%EV -10.44%E -8.70%K -52.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV +0.754%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.71%EV -12.08%E -2.10%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-25 19:33
Unibet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.26%EV -10.44%E -8.70%K -52.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV +0.754%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.71%EV -12.08%E -2.10%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-25 19:33
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.95%EV -10.44%E -8.70%K -52.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.99%EV +0.754%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.06%EV -14.37%E -2.57%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-25 19:33
PMU (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.26%EV -11.93%E -10.11%K -66.29%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.88%EV +0.754%E +0.075%K +0.084%G +0.001%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.86%EV -14.37%E -2.57%K -3.12%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-25 19:33
DraftKings🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.48%EV -5.96%E -4.73%K -22.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -4.28%E -0.451%K -0.504%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -8.25%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 20:25
Bet Right🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -6.71%E -5.37%K -26.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -4.28%E -0.451%K -0.504%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -8.25%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-25 20:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.31%EV -8.95%E -7.33%K -40.67%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -4.28%E -0.451%K -0.504%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.89%EV +2.45%E +0.366%K +0.430%G +0.011%7.4%2026-10-25 20:05
PlayUp🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.13%EV -6.71%E -5.37%K -26.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -4.28%E -0.451%K -0.504%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -12.08%E -2.10%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 20:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.13%EV -6.71%E -5.37%K -26.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -4.28%E -0.451%K -0.504%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -12.08%E -2.10%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 20:25
BetUS🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.44%EV -5.96%E -4.73%K -22.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -4.28%E -0.451%K -0.504%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -15.90%E -2.89%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-25 20:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.24%EV -9.69%E -8.01%K -46.16%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -4.28%E -0.451%K -0.504%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -8.25%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-25 20:11
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -8.95%E -7.33%K -40.67%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -4.28%E -0.451%K -0.504%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -12.08%E -2.10%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-25 19:31
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -8.95%E -7.33%K -40.67%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -4.28%E -0.451%K -0.504%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -12.08%E -2.10%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-25 19:32
LowVig.ag🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.61%EV -7.45%E -6.01%K -31.06%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.19%EV -7.31%E -0.794%K -0.891%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.20%EV +0.920%E +0.139%K +0.164%G +0.002%6.7%2026-10-25 20:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.61%EV -7.45%E -6.01%K -31.06%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.19%EV -7.31%E -0.794%K -0.891%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.20%EV +0.920%E +0.139%K +0.164%G +0.002%6.7%2026-10-25 20:05
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.47%E -3.49%K -15.96%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -9.32%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV -8.25%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-25 19:35
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.12%EV -6.71%E -5.37%K -26.83%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -9.32%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -0.609%E -0.094%K -0.111%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 20:05
Fanatics🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.22%E -4.11%K -19.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -9.32%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -8.25%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 19:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.22%E -4.11%K -19.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -9.32%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -8.25%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 20:05
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.83%EV -6.71%E -5.37%K -26.83%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -9.32%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.91%EV -11.31%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 20:20
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.73%EV -6.71%E -5.37%K -26.83%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -9.32%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -12.08%E -2.10%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 20:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.73%EV -6.71%E -5.37%K -26.83%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -9.32%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -12.08%E -2.10%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 20:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.73%EV -6.71%E -5.37%K -26.83%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -9.32%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -12.08%E -2.10%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 20:20
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.71%E -5.37%K -26.83%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -9.32%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -15.90%E -2.89%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-25 20:24
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -8.95%E -7.33%K -40.67%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -9.32%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -8.25%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-25 19:33
Winamax (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.84%EV -9.69%E -8.01%K -46.16%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -9.32%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.09%EV -8.25%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-25 20:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.00%EV -7.45%E -6.01%K -31.06%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.69%EV -12.34%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -0.609%E -0.094%K -0.111%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 19:33
Unibet (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 75.43%EV -14.92%E -13.09%K -106.55%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.00%EV -13.35%E -1.55%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.57%EV -9.78%E -1.66%K -2.00%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-25 20:04
BetMGM🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.17%EV -3.72%E -2.89%K -12.84%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -14.36%E -1.69%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.25%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-25 19:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.32%EV -4.47%E -3.49%K -15.96%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV -14.36%E -1.69%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -8.25%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 19:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.18%EV -10.44%E -8.70%K -52.20%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.47%EV -14.36%E -1.69%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.35%EV -11.31%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-25 20:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.68%EV -4.47%E -3.49%K -15.96%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.28%EV -16.88%E -2.05%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.04%EV -11.31%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 19:35
Neds🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.68%EV -4.47%E -3.49%K -15.96%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.28%EV -16.88%E -2.05%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.04%EV -11.31%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 19:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.22%EV -8.95%E -7.33%K -40.67%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 10.83%EV -16.88%E -2.05%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.95%EV -14.37%E -2.57%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 20:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.94%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-10-25 20:11
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.94%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-10-25 20:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.94%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-10-25 20:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.94%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.14%1.0%2026-10-25 20:05
Matchbook◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.68%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.22%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.09%1.4%2026-10-25 20:25
Kalshi◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.40%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.86%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.74%1.7%2026-10-25 20:05