The School of Odds
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Santa Clara v Benfica

Kickoff: 2026-10-26 18:45 UTC

Final: Santa Clara 1–2 Benfica

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Santa Clara (Local)

Prediction 11.93%8.38fair odd
EV +4.36%
Edge +0.498%
Kelly +0.562%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 8.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.83%12.03%11.97%13.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.757.828.008.7514.81%12.78%12.50%11.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Benfica (Visit)

Prediction 69.59%1.44fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -6.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.78%69.67%69.42%71.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.331.331.4079.37%75.35%75.19%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.48%5.41fair odd
EV +3.51%
Edge +0.627%
Kelly +0.764%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.55%18.30%18.61%19.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.065.005.6021.74%19.78%20.00%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Santa Clara (Local): 11.93%; Benfica (Visit): 69.59%; Draw: 18.48%. For Santa Clara (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.38. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.22%EV +1.38%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.74%EV -7.45%E -5.60%K -22.57%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV +3.51%E +0.627%K +0.764%G +0.027%4.8%2026-10-26 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.22%EV +1.38%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.74%EV -7.45%E -5.60%K -22.57%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV +3.51%E +0.627%K +0.764%G +0.027%4.8%2026-10-26 18:21
BetUS🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.22%EV +1.38%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.74%EV -7.45%E -5.60%K -22.57%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV +3.51%E +0.627%K +0.764%G +0.027%4.8%2026-10-26 18:25
FanDuel🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -4.59%E -0.573%K -0.655%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.86%EV -10.23%E -7.93%K -35.28%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV +3.51%E +0.627%K +0.764%G +0.027%7.9%2026-10-26 18:30
Pinnacle🎯8.53I 11.72%NM 11.31%EV +1.73%E +0.203%K +0.230%G +0.004%1.35I 74.07%NM 71.44%EV -6.05%E -4.49%K -17.30%G +0.000%5.59I 17.89%NM 17.25%EV +3.33%E +0.595%K +0.725%G +0.024%3.7%2026-10-26 18:35
Fanatics🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -4.59%E -0.573%K -0.655%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -7.45%E -5.60%K -22.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +1.66%E +0.303%K +0.370%G +0.006%5.9%2026-10-26 18:35
SportsBet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV +1.38%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -9.53%E -7.33%K -31.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV +1.66%E +0.303%K +0.370%G +0.006%6.9%2026-10-26 18:30
Paddy Power🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV +1.38%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -9.53%E -7.33%K -31.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV +1.66%E +0.303%K +0.370%G +0.006%6.9%2026-10-26 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV +1.38%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -9.53%E -7.33%K -31.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV +1.66%E +0.303%K +0.370%G +0.006%6.9%2026-10-26 18:20
Betway🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -4.59%E -0.573%K -0.655%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -9.53%E -7.33%K -31.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV +1.66%E +0.303%K +0.370%G +0.006%7.6%2026-10-26 18:25
Bovada🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 12.06%EV -7.57%E -0.977%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -7.45%E -5.60%K -22.57%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -2.03%E -0.383%K -0.473%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-26 18:35
Coral🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV -16.51%E -2.36%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.58%E -1.84%K -6.44%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV -2.96%E -0.563%K -0.696%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-26 18:40
DraftKings🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -10.55%E -1.41%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.58%EV -6.05%E -4.49%K -17.30%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -2.96%E -0.563%K -0.696%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-26 18:20
Virgin Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV +1.38%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.09%EV -8.14%E -6.17%K -25.45%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -2.96%E -0.563%K -0.696%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-26 18:35
Svenska Spel🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV +1.38%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.09%EV -8.14%E -6.17%K -25.45%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -2.96%E -0.563%K -0.696%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-26 18:35
Grosvenor🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV +1.38%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.09%EV -8.14%E -6.17%K -25.45%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -2.96%E -0.563%K -0.696%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-26 18:35
Casumo🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV +1.38%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.09%EV -8.14%E -6.17%K -25.45%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -2.96%E -0.563%K -0.696%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-26 18:35
ATG (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV +1.38%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.09%EV -8.14%E -6.17%K -25.45%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -2.96%E -0.563%K -0.696%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-26 18:35
betPARX🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV +1.38%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.09%EV -8.14%E -6.17%K -25.45%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -2.96%E -0.563%K -0.696%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-26 18:35
Bally Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV +1.38%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.09%EV -8.14%E -6.17%K -25.45%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -2.96%E -0.563%K -0.696%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-26 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.83%EV +4.36%E +0.498%K +0.562%G +0.024%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.21%EV -6.05%E -4.49%K -17.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-26 18:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -16.51%E -2.36%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -2.58%E -1.84%K -6.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-26 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -10.55%E -1.41%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -4.66%E -3.40%K -12.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-26 18:35
Coolbet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV +1.38%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -7.45%E -5.60%K -22.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-26 18:40
BetMGM🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.67%EV -19.50%E -2.89%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.87%EV -5.36%E -3.94%K -14.89%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-26 18:40
Sky Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -10.55%E -1.41%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.45%E -5.60%K -22.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-26 18:10
LiveScore Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -4.59%E -0.573%K -0.655%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -9.53%E -7.33%K -31.78%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-26 18:35
Winamax (DE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.47%EV -19.50%E -2.89%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.35%EV -7.45%E -5.60%K -22.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-26 18:35
TABtouch🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -4.59%E -0.573%K -0.655%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.46%EV -10.23%E -7.93%K -35.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-26 18:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -4.59%E -0.573%K -0.655%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.46%EV -10.23%E -7.93%K -35.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-26 18:30
BetRivers🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -4.59%E -0.573%K -0.655%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 70.62%EV -10.93%E -8.54%K -39.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -7.58%E -1.52%K -1.89%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-26 18:05
GTbets🎯7.96I 12.56%NM 11.64%EV -5.07%E -0.636%K -0.728%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.65%EV -7.45%E -5.60%K -22.57%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.71%EV -8.50%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-26 17:50
Bet Right🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.96%EV +1.38%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.03%EV -7.45%E -5.60%K -22.57%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -9.43%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-26 18:25
Marathon Bet🎯7.70I 12.99%NM 12.08%EV -8.17%E -1.06%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.93%EV -6.05%E -4.49%K -17.30%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%EV -9.43%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-26 17:45
Winamax (FR)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.42%EV -19.50%E -2.89%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.10%EV -7.45%E -5.60%K -22.57%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.48%EV -9.43%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-26 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.26%EV -4.59%E -0.573%K -0.655%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 70.36%EV -10.93%E -8.54%K -39.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.38%EV -9.43%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-26 18:35
Unibet (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.26%EV -4.59%E -0.573%K -0.655%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 70.36%EV -10.93%E -8.54%K -39.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.38%EV -9.43%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-26 18:35
Unibet (NL)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.26%EV -4.59%E -0.573%K -0.655%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 70.36%EV -10.93%E -8.54%K -39.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.38%EV -9.43%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-26 18:35
Unibet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.26%EV -4.59%E -0.573%K -0.655%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 70.36%EV -10.93%E -8.54%K -39.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.38%EV -9.43%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-26 18:35
PMU (FR)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.13%EV -4.59%E -0.573%K -0.655%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 70.69%EV -12.32%E -9.78%K -47.38%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.18%EV -9.43%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-26 18:05
PlayUp🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -10.55%E -1.41%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.57%EV -6.05%E -4.49%K -17.30%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.09%EV -10.35%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-26 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 13.75%EV -18.90%E -2.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.78%EV -2.58%E -1.84%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -11.27%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-26 18:40
Neds🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 13.75%EV -18.90%E -2.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.78%EV -2.58%E -1.84%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -11.27%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-26 18:40
Betsson🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 11.84%EV -6.97%E -0.894%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.92%EV -6.75%E -5.04%K -19.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.24%EV -11.27%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-26 18:35
NordicBet🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 11.84%EV -6.97%E -0.894%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.92%EV -6.75%E -5.04%K -19.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.24%EV -11.27%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-26 18:35
888sport🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -16.51%E -2.36%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.36%E -3.94%K -14.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -11.27%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-26 18:15
William Hill🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -16.51%E -2.36%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.36%E -3.94%K -14.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -11.27%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-26 18:15
888sport (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -16.51%E -2.36%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.36%E -3.94%K -14.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -11.27%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-26 18:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -16.51%E -2.36%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -5.36%E -3.94%K -14.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -11.27%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-26 18:15
NetBet (FR)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -10.55%E -1.41%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 69.08%EV -8.84%E -6.75%K -28.51%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.85%EV -11.27%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-26 18:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV +1.38%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.62%EV -7.45%E -5.60%K -22.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -12.20%E -2.57%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-26 18:25
BoyleSports🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -10.55%E -1.41%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -7.45%E -5.60%K -22.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -12.20%E -2.57%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-26 17:59
betano_uk🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -10.55%E -1.41%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -7.45%E -5.60%K -22.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -12.20%E -2.57%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-26 18:21
Bet Victor🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -10.55%E -1.41%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -7.45%E -5.60%K -22.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -12.20%E -2.57%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-26 18:08
Unibet (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.45%EV -16.51%E -2.36%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 69.19%EV -12.32%E -9.78%K -47.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.35%EV -12.20%E -2.57%K -3.25%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-26 18:35
betfred_uk🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -4.59%E -0.573%K -0.655%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -7.45%E -5.60%K -22.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -14.97%E -3.25%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-26 18:25
Betclic (FR)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.26%EV -19.50%E -2.89%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.29%EV -7.45%E -5.60%K -22.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -14.97%E -3.25%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-26 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎9.60I 10.42%NM 10.41%1.37I 72.99%NM 72.94%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.65%0.1%2026-10-26 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎9.60I 10.42%NM 10.35%1.36I 73.53%NM 73.08%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.57%0.6%2026-10-26 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎9.20I 10.87%NM 10.75%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.75%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.49%1.1%2026-10-26 18:40
Matchbook◎9.20I 10.87%NM 10.75%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.75%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.49%1.1%2026-10-26 18:40
Smarkets◎9.40I 10.64%NM 10.49%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.07%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.44%1.4%2026-10-26 18:40
Kalshi◎9.09I 11.00%NM 10.78%1.35I 74.07%NM 72.56%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.66%2.1%2026-10-26 18:15