Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 9.50
assuming max odds 1.35
assuming max odds 5.61
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rio Ave FC (Local): 11.16%; Sporting Lisbon (Visit): 70.92%; Draw: 17.92%. For Rio Ave FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.96. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.04%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.05%EV +6.04%E +0.636%K +0.711%G +0.043% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.77%EV -5.67%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV -5.94%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-28 18:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.24%EV +3.25%E +0.352%K +0.394%G +0.013% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.38%E -4.84%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -5.94%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-28 18:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV +3.25%E +0.352%K +0.394%G +0.013% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.91%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -6.84%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-28 19:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +0.463%E +0.051%K +0.058%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.73%EV -5.67%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-28 18:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV +0.463%E +0.051%K +0.058%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.96%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -5.04%E -0.952%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-28 19:11 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV +0.463%E +0.051%K +0.058%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.05%EV -7.09%E -5.41%K -22.88%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-28 19:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV +0.463%E +0.051%K +0.058%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-28 19:06 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 8.98I 11.14%NM 10.75%EV +0.239%E +0.027%K +0.030%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.04%EV -4.97%E -3.71%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 5.61I 17.83%NM 17.21%EV +0.510%E +0.091%K +0.111%G +0.001% | 3.6% | 2026-08-28 19:11 |
| Betsson🎯 | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.52%EV -1.77%E -0.201%K -0.227%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -4.97%E -3.71%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.36%EV -18.48%E -4.06%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-28 19:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.52%EV -1.77%E -0.201%K -0.227%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -4.97%E -3.71%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.36%EV -18.48%E -4.06%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-28 19:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.85%EV -4.00%E -0.465%K -0.527%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.21%EV -7.09%E -5.41%K -22.88%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.94%EV -6.84%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-28 19:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -5.12%E -0.602%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.93%EV -5.67%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.94%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-28 19:01 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -5.12%E -0.602%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.93%EV -5.67%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.94%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-28 19:11 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.07%EV -5.12%E -0.602%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-28 18:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.07%EV -5.12%E -0.602%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-28 18:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.07%EV -5.12%E -0.602%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-28 18:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.07%EV -5.12%E -0.602%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-28 18:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.07%EV -5.12%E -0.602%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-28 18:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.07%EV -5.12%E -0.602%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -12.21%E -2.49%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-28 18:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -5.12%E -0.602%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -1.46%E -0.266%K -0.325%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-28 19:06 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -5.12%E -0.602%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.44%EV -8.51%E -6.60%K -29.35%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV -6.84%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-28 19:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.12%E -0.602%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-28 19:06 |
| 888sport🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.12%E -0.602%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-28 18:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.12%E -0.602%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-28 18:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.12%E -0.602%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-28 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.12%E -0.602%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-28 18:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -5.12%E -0.602%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.58%EV -11.35%E -9.08%K -45.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-28 19:06 |
| Bovada🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.37%EV -7.91%E -0.959%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.09%EV -6.38%E -4.84%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.54%EV -4.15%E -0.775%K -0.954%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-28 19:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.45%EV -8.47%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.15%EV -6.38%E -4.84%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.39%EV -3.25%E -0.602%K -0.739%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-28 19:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.45%EV -8.47%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.15%EV -6.38%E -4.84%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.39%EV -3.25%E -0.602%K -0.739%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-28 19:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 8.20I 12.20%NM 10.97%EV -8.47%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.85%EV -9.93%E -7.82%K -36.78%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.18%EV -11.31%E -2.29%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-28 19:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -10.70%E -1.34%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.13%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -5.94%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-28 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -10.70%E -1.34%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.13%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -5.94%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-28 18:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -10.70%E -1.34%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -5.67%E -4.27%K -17.20%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -5.94%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-28 18:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -10.70%E -1.34%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -1.46%E -0.266%K -0.325%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-28 19:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -10.70%E -1.34%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -14.90%E -3.14%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-28 19:11 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -10.70%E -1.34%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-28 19:09 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -10.70%E -1.34%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-28 19:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -10.70%E -1.34%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -10.42%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-28 18:34 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -10.70%E -1.34%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -9.22%E -7.20%K -32.93%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -5.94%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-28 19:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -10.70%E -1.34%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.87%EV -6.38%E -4.84%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -17.59%E -3.82%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-28 18:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -10.70%E -1.34%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.87%EV -6.38%E -4.84%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -17.59%E -3.82%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-28 18:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -10.70%E -1.34%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.87%EV -6.38%E -4.84%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -17.59%E -3.82%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-28 18:46 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -10.70%E -1.34%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.87%EV -6.38%E -4.84%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -17.59%E -3.82%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-28 18:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -10.70%E -1.34%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.87%EV -6.38%E -4.84%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -17.59%E -3.82%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-28 18:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -10.70%E -1.34%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.87%EV -6.38%E -4.84%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -17.59%E -3.82%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-28 18:46 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.28%EV -10.70%E -1.34%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.03%EV -9.93%E -7.82%K -36.78%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.69%EV -8.63%E -1.69%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-28 19:06 |
| Neds🎯 | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.15%EV -13.49%E -1.74%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.74%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -6.84%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-28 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.15%EV -13.49%E -1.74%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.74%EV -4.26%E -3.15%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -6.84%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-28 18:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.11%EV -13.49%E -1.74%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.02%EV -4.97%E -3.71%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -5.94%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-28 19:11 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -16.28%E -2.17%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.99%EV -7.09%E -5.41%K -22.88%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.61%EV +0.331%E +0.059%K +0.072%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-28 19:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -16.28%E -2.17%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.68%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -17.59%E -3.82%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-28 18:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -16.28%E -2.17%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.68%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -17.59%E -3.82%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-28 18:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -16.28%E -2.17%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.68%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.01%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -17.59%E -3.82%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-28 18:46 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.56%EV -19.07%E -2.63%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.58%EV -8.51%E -6.60%K -29.35%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.86%EV -3.25%E -0.602%K -0.739%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-28 19:11 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.47% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.09% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.44% | 0.6% | 2026-08-28 19:11 |
| Matchbook◎ | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.87% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.70% | 0.9% | 2026-08-28 19:06 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.89% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.75% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.36% | 1.1% | 2026-08-28 19:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.52% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61% | 1.4% | 2026-08-28 19:11 |
| Smarkets◎ | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.81% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.67% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.52% | 1.9% | 2026-08-28 19:11 |
| Kalshi◎ | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.80% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.58% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.62% | 2.1% | 2026-08-28 18:00 |