Language:English
Rio Ave FC v Sporting Lisbon
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rio Ave FC (Local)
Prediction 8.89%11.25fair odd
EV +9.30%
Edge +0.756%
Kelly +0.823%
Growth +0.077%
assuming max odds 12.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.77%8.90%8.86%10.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.7510.1910.0012.3012.90%9.81%10.00%8.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sporting Lisbon (Visit)
Prediction 76.65%1.30fair odd
EV -4.19%
Edge -3.35%
Kelly -16.76%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.29%76.56%76.76%78.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.211.221.2586.21%82.37%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 14.46%6.91fair odd
EV +4.87%
Edge +0.672%
Kelly +0.779%
Growth +0.038%
assuming max odds 7.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.09%14.54%14.39%17.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.276.357.2520.00%15.96%15.75%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rio Ave FC (Local): 8.89%; Sporting Lisbon (Visit): 76.65%; Draw: 14.46%. For Rio Ave FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.25. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.30%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 12.30I 8.13%NM 7.88%EV +9.30%E +0.756%K +0.823%G +0.077% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.76%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.36%EV +4.87%E +0.672%K +0.779%G +0.038% | 3.2% | 2026-05-05 14:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +6.64%E +0.553%K +0.603%G +0.040% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -8.02%E -6.68%K -40.11%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.98%E -0.920%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-05 15:48 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +6.64%E +0.553%K +0.603%G +0.040% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -8.02%E -6.68%K -40.11%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.98%E -0.920%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-04 23:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV +6.64%E +0.553%K +0.603%G +0.040% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.67%EV -8.02%E -6.68%K -40.11%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -7.43%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-06 01:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 11.15I 8.97%NM 8.44%EV -0.917%E -0.082%K -0.090%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.46%EV -8.02%E -6.68%K -40.11%G +0.000% | 7.19I 13.91%NM 13.09%EV +4.00%E +0.557%K +0.647%G +0.026% | 6.2% | 2026-05-06 00:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -2.25%E -0.205%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.72%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.64%EV -5.98%E -0.920%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-05 14:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -2.25%E -0.205%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.72%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.64%EV -5.98%E -0.920%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-05 07:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -2.25%E -0.205%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.56%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -9.59%E -1.54%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-04 19:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -2.25%E -0.205%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.15%EV -7.26%E -6.00%K -34.55%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -5.98%E -0.920%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-04 19:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -2.25%E -0.205%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -13.21%E -2.20%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-04 19:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -2.25%E -0.205%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -8.02%E -6.68%K -40.11%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -5.98%E -0.920%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-04 19:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -2.25%E -0.205%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -8.02%E -6.68%K -40.11%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -5.98%E -0.920%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-04 19:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -6.69%E -0.637%K -0.704%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.29%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.82%EV -14.66%E -2.48%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-04 22:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -6.69%E -0.637%K -0.704%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.29%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.82%EV -14.66%E -2.48%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-04 22:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.80%EV -6.69%E -0.637%K -0.704%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.99%EV -8.02%E -6.68%K -40.11%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV -5.98%E -0.920%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-05 14:38 |
| Coral🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -11.14%E -1.11%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -5.98%E -0.920%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-05 14:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -11.14%E -1.11%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -5.98%E -0.920%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-04 19:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -11.14%E -1.11%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.62%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.00%EV -9.59%E -1.54%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-05 14:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV -11.14%E -1.11%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.76%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.87%EV -2.36%E -0.350%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-05 07:11 |
| BetUS🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV -11.14%E -1.11%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.76%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.87%EV -2.36%E -0.350%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-05 22:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -11.14%E -1.11%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.50%EV -7.26%E -6.00%K -34.55%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -5.98%E -0.920%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-04 23:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -11.14%E -1.11%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -13.21%E -2.20%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-04 19:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -11.14%E -1.11%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -13.21%E -2.20%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -11.14%E -1.11%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -13.21%E -2.20%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -11.14%E -1.11%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -13.21%E -2.20%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 12:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -11.14%E -1.11%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -13.21%E -2.20%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -11.14%E -1.11%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -13.21%E -2.20%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-05 15:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.04%EV -11.14%E -1.11%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.61%EV -9.55%E -8.10%K -53.08%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.35%EV -8.87%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-05 14:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.82%EV -11.14%E -1.11%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.53%EV -8.02%E -6.68%K -40.11%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -27.68%E -5.54%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-05 01:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -15.58%E -1.64%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.25%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -9.59%E -1.54%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 20:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -15.58%E -1.64%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.25%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -9.59%E -1.54%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 20:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -15.58%E -1.64%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.28%EV -8.02%E -6.68%K -40.11%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.08%EV -5.98%E -0.920%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-05 05:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.30%EV -15.58%E -1.64%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.48%EV -10.32%E -8.82%K -60.71%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.23%EV -16.10%E -2.78%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-05 14:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 9.20I 10.87%NM 9.90%EV -18.25%E -1.98%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.88%EV -8.02%E -6.68%K -40.11%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -7.43%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-05 10:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 9.20I 10.87%NM 9.90%EV -18.25%E -1.98%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.88%EV -8.02%E -6.68%K -40.11%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -7.43%E -1.16%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-05 10:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -20.02%E -2.22%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.57%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -5.98%E -0.920%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-05 01:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -20.02%E -2.22%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -13.21%E -2.20%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-04 23:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.94%EV -20.02%E -2.22%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.51%EV -8.02%E -6.68%K -40.11%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -16.83%E -2.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-04 19:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.39%EV -24.47%E -2.88%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 74.88%EV -9.55%E -8.10%K -53.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.73%EV -13.21%E -2.20%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-05 14:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 7.75I 12.90%NM 10.97%EV -31.13%E -4.02%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 73.29%EV -11.09%E -9.56%K -69.30%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 15.74%EV -21.89%E -4.05%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 17.6% | 2026-05-05 14:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 47.63% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 43.82% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 8.56% | 82.6% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 47.63% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 43.82% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 8.56% | 82.6% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 47.89% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 43.73% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 8.38% | 98.9% | 2026-05-05 12:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 34.76% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 29.47% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 35.77% | 171.4% | 2026-05-05 12:30 |