The School of Odds
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Rio Ave FC v Sporting Lisbon

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rio Ave FC (Local)

Prediction 8.44%11.85fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -0.257%
Kelly -0.282%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 11.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.18%8.44%8.44%8.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.5011.0311.0011.509.52%9.07%9.09%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sporting Lisbon (Visit)

Prediction 76.71%1.30fair odd
EV -6.41%
Edge -5.26%
Kelly -29.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.54%76.71%76.71%77.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.211.211.2285.47%82.94%82.99%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.85%6.73fair odd
EV -4.95%
Edge -0.774%
Kelly -0.917%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.70%14.85%14.85%15.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.226.256.4016.67%16.09%16.00%15.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rio Ave FC (Local): 8.44%; Sporting Lisbon (Visit): 76.71%; Draw: 14.85%. For Rio Ave FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.85. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 11.50, with an expected value of -2.96%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.18%EV -2.96%E -0.257%K -0.282%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.12%EV -6.41%E -5.26%K -29.15%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -4.95%E -0.774%K -0.917%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-04 16:24
Svenska Spel🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.18%EV -2.96%E -0.257%K -0.282%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.12%EV -6.41%E -5.26%K -29.15%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -4.95%E -0.774%K -0.917%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-04 16:24
Grosvenor🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -7.18%E -0.653%K -0.718%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.56%EV -6.41%E -5.26%K -29.15%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -7.18%E -1.15%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 16:24
Casumo🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -7.18%E -0.653%K -0.718%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.56%EV -6.41%E -5.26%K -29.15%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -7.18%E -1.15%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 16:24
Bally Bet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -7.18%E -0.653%K -0.718%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.56%EV -6.41%E -5.26%K -29.15%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -7.18%E -1.15%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 16:25
betPARX🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -7.18%E -0.653%K -0.718%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.56%EV -6.41%E -5.26%K -29.15%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -7.18%E -1.15%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-04 16:25
BetRivers🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -7.18%E -0.653%K -0.718%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.71%EV -7.18%E -5.93%K -34.19%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%EV -7.18%E -1.15%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-04 16:24
TABtouch🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -7.18%E -0.653%K -0.718%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.71%EV -7.18%E -5.93%K -34.19%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%EV -7.18%E -1.15%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-04 16:25
Unibet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV -7.18%E -0.653%K -0.718%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.86%EV -7.95%E -6.62%K -39.74%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -7.18%E -1.15%K -1.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-04 16:24
Unibet (NL)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV -7.18%E -0.653%K -0.718%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.86%EV -7.95%E -6.62%K -39.74%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -7.18%E -1.15%K -1.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-04 16:24
Unibet (SE)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV -7.18%E -0.653%K -0.718%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.86%EV -7.95%E -6.62%K -39.74%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -7.18%E -1.15%K -1.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-04 16:25
LiveScore Bet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV -7.18%E -0.653%K -0.718%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.58%EV -7.95%E -6.62%K -39.74%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.07%EV -9.41%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-04 16:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV -7.18%E -0.653%K -0.718%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.58%EV -7.95%E -6.62%K -39.74%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.07%EV -9.41%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-04 16:25
PMU (FR)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV -7.18%E -0.653%K -0.718%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 76.73%EV -8.71%E -7.32%K -45.86%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.97%EV -9.41%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-04 16:24
Virgin Bet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV -7.18%E -0.653%K -0.718%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 76.73%EV -8.71%E -7.32%K -45.86%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.97%EV -9.41%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-04 16:24
LeoVegas🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.53%EV -11.40%E -1.09%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.54%EV -10.25%E -8.76%K -60.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.93%EV -10.89%E -1.82%K -2.18%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-04 16:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.