Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.15
assuming max odds 3.75
assuming max odds 3.50
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rio Ave FC (Local): 44.69%; Nacional (Visit): 27.11%; Draw: 28.20%. For Nacional (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.69. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.67%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.33%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV +1.67%E +0.446%K +0.608%G +0.010% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -8.35%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-11 14:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.33%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV +1.67%E +0.446%K +0.608%G +0.010% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -8.35%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-11 14:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.96%EV -3.92%E -1.82%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.84%EV +1.40%E +0.374%K +0.511%G +0.007% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 29.20%EV -6.65%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-11 14:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -8.39%E -4.09%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV +0.316%E +0.085%K +0.117%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -9.76%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-11 14:24 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.93%EV -6.60%E -3.16%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -1.04%E -0.285%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.34%EV -9.76%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-11 14:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -2.40%E -0.665%K -0.921%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -9.76%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-11 14:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -2.40%E -0.665%K -0.921%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -9.76%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-11 14:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -7.05%E -3.39%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -2.40%E -0.665%K -0.921%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -9.76%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-11 14:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -8.39%E -4.09%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -2.40%E -0.665%K -0.921%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -9.76%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-11 14:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -3.75%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -8.35%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-11 09:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.12%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 12:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.94%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -8.39%E -4.09%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.94%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-11 14:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.39%E -4.09%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -5.11%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -12.58%E -4.06%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-11 14:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.26%EV -10.18%E -5.06%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 26.87%EV -6.19%E -1.79%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 26.87%EV -2.42%E -0.701%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-11 14:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 43.97%EV -4.82%E -2.26%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 27.47%EV -7.55%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.56%EV -7.50%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-11 09:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -1.30%E -0.370%K -0.519%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 14:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -3.92%E -1.82%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.94%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-11 09:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.94%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-11 09:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.94%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-11 09:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.94%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-11 09:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.94%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-11 09:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.76%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-11 14:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.82%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.76%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-11 14:24 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.15%EV -8.39%E -4.09%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -4.12%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-11 14:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -8.35%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-11 14:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -5.26%E -2.48%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.76%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-11 14:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -5.26%E -2.48%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.76%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-11 14:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.90%EV -4.37%E -2.04%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.12%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 14:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.90%EV -4.37%E -2.04%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.12%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.90%EV -4.37%E -2.04%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.12%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.90%EV -4.37%E -2.04%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.12%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 14:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.90%EV -4.37%E -2.04%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.12%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 14:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.90%EV -4.37%E -2.04%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.12%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.90%EV -4.37%E -2.04%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.12%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 14:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.12%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-11 10:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -6.94%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-11 14:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -6.16%E -2.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -6.94%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.39%E -4.09%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -6.94%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-11 09:39 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.39%E -4.09%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -6.94%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-11 13:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -10.63%E -5.31%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -4.12%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-11 14:23 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.62%EV -10.63%E -5.31%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -10.53%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.33%EV -11.17%E -3.55%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-11 14:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -10.63%E -5.31%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -11.88%E -3.66%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -4.12%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-11 14:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.71%EV -10.63%E -5.31%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -11.88%E -3.66%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 27.77%EV -9.19%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-11 14:08 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.85%EV -7.05%E -3.39%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -13.24%E -4.14%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -6.94%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-11 14:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -8.39%E -4.09%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -13.24%E -4.14%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -6.94%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-11 09:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 44.80%EV -13.31%E -6.86%K -14.16%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.16%EV -13.24%E -4.14%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.04%EV -12.58%E -4.06%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-10-11 14:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.59%EV -7.50%E -3.62%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -14.60%E -4.63%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.76%EV -8.35%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.59%EV -7.50%E -3.62%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -14.60%E -4.63%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.76%EV -8.35%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.01%EV -8.39%E -4.09%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.64%EV -14.60%E -4.63%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -6.94%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-11 09:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.71%EV -7.95%E -3.86%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -14.60%E -4.63%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -8.35%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.71%EV -7.95%E -3.86%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -14.60%E -4.63%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -8.35%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.71%EV -7.95%E -3.86%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -14.60%E -4.63%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -8.35%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-11 14:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.83%EV -8.39%E -4.09%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -14.60%E -4.63%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -8.35%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-11 14:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.80%EV -9.73%E -4.82%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -15.95%E -5.15%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -9.76%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.84% | 0.5% | 2026-10-11 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.87% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 0.9% | 2026-10-11 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.87% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 0.9% | 2026-10-11 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.45% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.14% | 0.9% | 2026-10-11 14:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.30% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.65% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.05% | 1.3% | 2026-10-11 14:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.14% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.39% | 2.1% | 2026-10-11 14:05 |