The School of Odds
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Rio Ave FC v Famalicão

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 18:00 UTC

Final: Rio Ave FC 0–4 Famalicão

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rio Ave FC (Local)

Prediction 26.87%3.72fair odd
EV -0.567%
Edge -0.153%
Kelly -0.210%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.24%26.84%26.83%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.503.503.7031.25%28.61%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Famalicão (Visit)

Prediction 45.03%2.22fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.79%45.09%44.95%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.042.042.1752.91%49.07%49.02%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.10%3.56fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.472%
Kelly -0.660%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.97%28.08%28.22%29.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.283.303.5032.26%30.45%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rio Ave FC (Local): 26.87%; Famalicão (Visit): 45.03%; Draw: 28.10%. For Rio Ave FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.70, with an expected value of -0.567%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.09%EV -8.15%E -3.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 17:18
Svenska Spel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.09%EV -8.15%E -3.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 17:19
Grosvenor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.09%EV -8.15%E -3.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 17:18
Casumo🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.09%EV -8.15%E -3.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 17:19
ATG (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.09%EV -8.15%E -3.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 17:18
betPARX🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.09%EV -8.15%E -3.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 17:19
Bally Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.09%EV -8.15%E -3.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 17:17
FanDuel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.567%E -0.153%K -0.210%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -7.70%E -3.75%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -10.08%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 17:48
Pinnacle🎯3.62I 27.62%NM 26.70%EV -2.72%E -0.750%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.54%EV -2.29%E -1.06%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.76%EV -5.58%E -1.66%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-25 17:40
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.70%E -3.75%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-25 17:35
SportsBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.70%E -3.75%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -8.68%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 17:49
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -9.95%E -4.97%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.08%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-25 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -3.25%E -0.904%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.95%E -4.97%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.89%E -4.16%K -6.14%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 17:49
LowVig.ag🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.66%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -4.54%E -2.14%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 17:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.66%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -4.54%E -2.14%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 17:49
LiveScore Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.95%EV -10.85%E -5.48%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -10.08%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-25 17:18
Coolbet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.35%E -3.05%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -1.65%E -0.472%K -0.660%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 16:57
Coral🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -5.44%E -2.59%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.46%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 17:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -5.44%E -2.59%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.46%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 17:35
Betr (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.70%E -3.75%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -1.65%E -0.472%K -0.660%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-25 16:57
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.29%EV -4.54%E -2.14%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -8.68%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 17:40
BetUS🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.29%EV -4.54%E -2.14%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -8.68%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 17:40
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.70%E -3.75%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.46%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-25 17:40
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.70%E -3.75%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-25 17:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -9.95%E -4.97%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -4.46%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-25 16:56
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.70%E -3.75%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.08%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-25 17:50
William Hill🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.70%E -3.75%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.08%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-25 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.70%E -3.75%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.08%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-25 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.70%E -3.75%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.08%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-25 17:50
TABtouch🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.90%EV -11.30%E -5.74%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -10.08%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-25 17:19
BetRivers🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.90%EV -11.30%E -5.74%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -10.08%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-25 17:18
Unibet (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.95%EV -12.20%E -6.26%K -12.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -11.49%E -3.65%K -5.34%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-25 17:18
Unibet (NL)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.95%EV -12.20%E -6.26%K -12.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -11.49%E -3.65%K -5.34%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-25 17:18
Unibet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.95%EV -12.20%E -6.26%K -12.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -11.49%E -3.65%K -5.34%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-25 17:18
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.54%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.08%EV -12.65%E -6.52%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.38%EV -11.49%E -3.65%K -5.34%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 17:19
GTbets🎯3.49I 28.65%NM 26.94%EV -6.21%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.41%EV -6.80%E -3.28%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.46%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-25 17:40
Marathon Bet🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 26.72%EV -6.48%E -1.86%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.93%EV -6.80%E -3.28%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.35%EV -7.83%E -2.39%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 17:40
DraftKings🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -5.44%E -2.59%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -5.87%E -1.75%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 17:35
Neds🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -5.44%E -2.59%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -5.87%E -1.75%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 17:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -5.44%E -2.59%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -5.87%E -1.75%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 17:35
Bet Right🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -7.70%E -3.75%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.46%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-25 16:56
NordicBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.88%EV -9.05%E -4.48%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -4.46%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 17:49
Betsson🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.88%EV -9.05%E -4.48%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -4.46%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 17:49
PMU (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.64%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.83%EV -13.10%E -6.79%K -14.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -12.89%E -4.16%K -6.14%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-25 17:19
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -3.19%E -1.49%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 17:35
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -5.44%E -2.59%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 17:35
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -5.44%E -2.59%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 17:35
PlayUp🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -9.05%E -4.48%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -4.46%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-25 17:50
betfred_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.70%E -3.75%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 16:57
Bet Victor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -9.95%E -4.97%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-25 17:48
betano_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -9.95%E -4.97%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-25 17:49
Winamax (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.39%EV -9.95%E -4.97%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -5.87%E -1.75%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-25 17:50
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -9.95%E -4.97%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -8.68%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-25 17:49
NetBet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 44.75%EV -10.40%E -5.22%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.27%EV -11.49%E -3.65%K -5.34%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-25 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.42%EV -12.66%E -3.90%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.00%EV -10.85%E -5.48%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.58%EV -9.24%E -2.86%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-25 17:40
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -14.00%E -4.38%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -9.95%E -4.97%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -7.27%E -2.20%K -3.16%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-25 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 26.96%EV -14.00%E -4.38%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 45.65%EV -14.90%E -7.88%K -16.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.39%EV -11.49%E -3.65%K -5.34%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-25 17:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.02%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.81%0.6%2026-10-25 17:50
Matchbook◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.02%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.81%0.6%2026-10-25 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.87%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-10-25 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.87%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-10-25 17:50
Kalshi◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.44%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.14%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%2.1%2026-10-25 17:50
Smarkets◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.33%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.99%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.68%2.6%2026-10-25 17:50