Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Rio Ave FC v CF Estrela

Início: 2026-09-14 17:45 UTC

Final: Rio Ave FC 3–3 CF Estrela

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Rio Ave FC (Local)

Previsão 33.34%3.00odd justa
EV -1.66%
Vantagem -0.563%
Kelly -0.851%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.95

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
32.31%33.31%33.39%35.04%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.622.782.802.9538.17%36.03%35.71%33.90%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

CF Estrela (Visitante)

Previsão 37.71%2.65odd justa
EV -2.32%
Vantagem -0.896%
Kelly -1.46%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.59

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
36.72%37.74%37.68%38.75%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.302.462.482.5943.48%40.73%40.32%38.61%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 28.95%3.45odd justa
EV -1.57%
Vantagem -0.461%
Kelly -0.653%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.81%28.96%28.93%30.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.223.253.4033.33%31.08%30.82%29.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Rio Ave FC (Local): 33.34%; CF Estrela (Visitante): 37.71%; Empate: 28.95%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.45. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.40, com valor esperado de -1.57%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
LowVig.ag🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.31%EV -1.66%E -0.563%K -0.851%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.28%EV -6.09%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.42%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-14 17:16
BetOnline.ag🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.31%EV -1.66%E -0.563%K -0.851%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.28%EV -6.09%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.42%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-14 17:16
GTbets🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV -2.66%E -0.911%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.78%EV -4.21%E -1.66%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.35%EV -5.33%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-14 16:45
Pinnacle🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.41%EV -3.33%E -1.15%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.41%EV -2.32%E -0.896%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.18%EV -3.88%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-14 17:31
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -3.33%E -1.15%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -7.60%E -3.10%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-14 16:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.74%EV -4.33%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -7.60%E -3.10%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-14 16:40
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.29%EV -4.99%E -1.75%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.95%EV -5.72%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-14 17:35
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -4.99%E -1.75%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -5.72%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-14 17:15
Neds🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -4.99%E -1.75%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -7.60%E -3.10%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-14 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -4.99%E -1.75%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -7.60%E -3.10%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-14 16:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -4.99%E -1.75%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -7.60%E -3.10%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 17:25
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -4.99%E -1.75%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -5.72%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-14 17:35
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -4.99%E -1.75%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -9.49%E -3.95%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 16:45
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -4.99%E -1.75%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -9.49%E -3.95%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 16:38
Bovada🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 33.25%EV -5.66%E -2.00%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.79%EV -6.09%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 17:40
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -6.66%E -2.38%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 17:05
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -6.66%E -2.38%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 17:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -6.66%E -2.38%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 17:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -6.66%E -2.38%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 17:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -6.66%E -2.38%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 17:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -6.66%E -2.38%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 17:05
Bally Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -6.66%E -2.38%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 17:05
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -6.66%E -2.38%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 17:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -6.66%E -2.38%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -5.72%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-14 17:30
BetUS🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -6.66%E -2.38%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -5.72%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-14 17:40
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -6.66%E -2.38%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -7.60%E -3.10%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-14 16:35
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -6.66%E -2.38%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.22%EV -5.72%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 17:39
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -6.66%E -2.38%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -5.72%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-14 17:09
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -6.66%E -2.38%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -7.60%E -3.10%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-14 17:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 33.36%EV -6.99%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.38%EV -6.09%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.27%EV -7.94%E -2.50%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-14 17:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -8.33%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -5.72%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -1.57%E -0.461%K -0.653%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-14 17:40
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -8.33%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -5.72%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-14 17:20
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -8.33%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -7.60%E -3.10%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-14 17:16
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -8.33%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -7.60%E -3.10%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-14 17:16
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -8.33%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -5.72%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-14 17:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -8.33%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -5.72%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-14 17:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -8.33%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -5.72%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-14 17:40
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.33%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -9.49%E -3.95%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-14 17:39
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.33%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -9.49%E -3.95%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-14 17:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -8.33%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -7.60%E -3.10%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-14 17:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.16%EV -9.33%E -3.43%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.27%EV -8.73%E -3.61%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.57%EV -11.70%E -3.84%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-14 17:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 32.77%EV -9.33%E -3.43%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.75%EV -13.26%E -5.76%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.48%EV -9.38%E -3.00%K -4.41%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-14 17:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -9.99%E -3.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -5.72%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-14 17:40
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -9.99%E -3.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -5.72%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-14 17:40
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -9.99%E -3.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.09%EV -10.24%E -4.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-14 17:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -9.99%E -3.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.09%EV -10.24%E -4.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-14 17:05
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -9.99%E -3.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.09%EV -10.24%E -4.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-14 17:05
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -9.99%E -3.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -9.49%E -3.95%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-14 17:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -11.66%E -4.40%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -9.49%E -3.95%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-14 17:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.10%EV -11.66%E -4.40%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -9.49%E -3.95%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-14 17:30
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.00%EV -11.66%E -4.40%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.85%EV -10.24%E -4.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-14 17:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.00%EV -11.66%E -4.40%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.85%EV -10.24%E -4.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-14 17:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.00%EV -11.66%E -4.40%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.85%EV -10.24%E -4.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-14 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.68%EV -11.66%E -4.40%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.98%EV -11.37%E -4.84%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.34%EV -8.81%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-14 17:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.47%EV -11.66%E -4.40%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -9.49%E -3.95%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -13.15%E -4.38%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-14 17:26
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -12.66%E -4.83%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -5.72%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-14 17:40
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.17%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.13%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.70%0.5%2026-09-14 17:36
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.17%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.13%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.70%0.5%2026-09-14 17:36
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.17%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.13%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.70%0.5%2026-09-14 17:36
Matchbook◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.17%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.13%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.70%0.5%2026-09-14 17:40
Smarkets◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.93%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.14%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.93%1.2%2026-09-14 17:36
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 32.33%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.26%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%2.1%2026-09-14 17:01