Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Rio Ave FC v CF Estrela

2026-09-14 17:45 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Frente a frente

38 casas de apostas (11 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Rio Ave FC (Local)

Previsão 35.12%2.85odd justa
EV -4.48%
Vantagem -1.65%
Kelly -2.60%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.72

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
33.45%35.33%35.17%38.68%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.322.512.552.7243.10%39.79%39.22%36.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

CF Estrela (Visitante)

Previsão 36.85%2.71odd justa
EV +6.13%
Vantagem +2.13%
Kelly +3.26%
Crescimento +0.200%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.88

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
32.46%36.64%36.86%38.72%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.252.612.592.8844.44%38.28%38.54%34.72%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 28.03%3.57odd justa
EV -1.90%
Vantagem -0.543%
Kelly -0.760%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.98%28.04%27.96%28.92%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.053.243.253.5032.79%30.89%30.77%28.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Frente a frente, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Rio Ave FC (Local): 35.12%; CF Estrela (Visitante): 36.85%; Empate: 28.03%. Para CF Estrela (Visitante), essa estimativa equivale a odds decimais justas de 2.71. 15 casas de apostas oferecem odds acima desse nível; as melhores odds disponíveis são 2.88, produzindo um valor esperado positivo de +6.13%.

Odds das casas de apostas (38 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV -14.66%E -6.03%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.56%EV +6.13%E +2.13%K +3.26%G +0.200%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -8.91%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-07 20:15
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV -14.66%E -6.03%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.56%EV +6.13%E +2.13%K +3.26%G +0.200%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -8.91%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-07 20:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV -14.66%E -6.03%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.56%EV +6.13%E +2.13%K +3.26%G +0.200%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -8.91%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-07 20:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV -14.66%E -6.03%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.56%EV +6.13%E +2.13%K +3.26%G +0.200%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -8.91%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-07 20:14
Bally Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV -14.66%E -6.03%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.56%EV +6.13%E +2.13%K +3.26%G +0.200%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -8.91%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-07 20:15
betPARX🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV -14.66%E -6.03%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.56%EV +6.13%E +2.13%K +3.26%G +0.200%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -8.91%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-07 20:14
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -17.47%E -7.43%K -12.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV +3.19%E +1.14%K +1.77%G +0.056%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -11.71%E -3.72%K -5.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 20:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -17.47%E -7.43%K -12.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV +3.19%E +1.14%K +1.77%G +0.056%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -11.71%E -3.72%K -5.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 20:14
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -17.47%E -7.43%K -12.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV +3.19%E +1.14%K +1.77%G +0.056%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -11.71%E -3.72%K -5.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 20:15
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.48%EV -18.17%E -7.80%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.60%EV +1.34%E +0.489%K +0.768%G +0.010%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -13.11%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-07 20:14
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.48%EV -18.17%E -7.80%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.60%EV +1.34%E +0.489%K +0.768%G +0.010%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -13.11%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-07 20:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.48%EV -18.17%E -7.80%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.60%EV +1.34%E +0.489%K +0.768%G +0.010%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -13.11%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-07 20:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.58%EV -18.52%E -7.98%K -14.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV +1.34%E +0.489%K +0.768%G +0.010%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -13.11%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-07 20:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.58%EV -18.52%E -7.98%K -14.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV +1.34%E +0.489%K +0.768%G +0.010%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -13.11%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-07 20:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.58%EV -18.52%E -7.98%K -14.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV +1.34%E +0.489%K +0.768%G +0.010%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -13.11%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-07 20:14
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.02%EV -6.93%E -2.62%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.71%EV -4.18%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -1.90%E -0.543%K -0.760%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 18:54
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -6.93%E -2.62%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -4.18%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.70%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-07 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -8.69%E -3.34%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -4.18%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.70%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 18:55
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -8.69%E -3.34%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -4.18%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.70%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.32%EV -7.29%E -2.76%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.00%EV -4.55%E -1.76%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -8.91%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-07 20:40
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -10.45%E -4.10%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -6.03%E -2.36%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -3.30%E -0.957%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-07 18:55
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -8.69%E -3.34%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -6.03%E -2.36%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.10%E -1.82%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-07 18:55
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -10.45%E -4.10%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -6.03%E -2.36%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -4.70%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-07 18:55
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -6.93%E -2.62%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.84%EV -7.13%E -2.83%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.13%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-07 18:09
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -6.93%E -2.62%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.84%EV -7.13%E -2.83%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.13%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-07 18:08
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -8.69%E -3.34%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -7.87%E -3.15%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-07 18:55
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -7.99%E -3.05%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.87%E -3.15%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -10.31%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-07 18:10
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -7.99%E -3.05%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.87%E -3.15%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -10.31%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-07 18:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -7.99%E -3.05%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.87%E -3.15%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -10.31%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-07 18:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -7.99%E -3.05%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.87%E -3.15%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -10.31%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-07 18:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -5.18%E -1.92%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -9.71%E -3.96%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -8.91%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-07 13:00
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.31%EV -13.96%E -5.70%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.31%EV -9.71%E -3.96%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -8.91%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-07 18:55
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.51%EV -7.99%E -3.05%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.67%EV -11.55%E -4.81%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.91%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 12:55
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.51%EV -7.99%E -3.05%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.67%EV -11.55%E -4.81%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.91%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 20:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.45%EV -4.48%E -1.65%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -13.40%E -5.70%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.83%EV -8.35%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-07 12:58
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.42%EV -10.45%E -4.10%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.16%EV -15.24%E -6.63%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -10.31%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-07 13:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.96%EV -10.45%E -4.10%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.65%EV -15.24%E -6.63%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.39%EV -14.51%E -4.76%K -7.08%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-07 13:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.28%EV -12.20%E -4.88%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.08%EV -17.08%E -7.59%K -13.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -13.11%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-07 12:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets2.60I 38.46%NM 33.85%2.36I 42.37%NM 37.29%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.86%13.6%2026-09-07 17:50
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 36.33%2.13I 46.95%NM 29.34%1.82I 54.95%NM 34.33%60.0%2026-09-07 20:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19%186.7%2026-09-07 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19%186.7%2026-09-07 15:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19%186.7%2026-09-07 15:50