Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rio Ave FC v AVS Futebol SAD

Kickoff: 2026-04-17 19:49 UTC

Final: Rio Ave FC 2–2 AVS Futebol SAD

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rio Ave FC (Local)

Prediction 56.04%1.78fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -4.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.18%55.94%56.08%57.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.661.671.7363.69%60.27%60.06%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AVS Futebol SAD (Visit)

Prediction 19.28%5.19fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -0.724%
Kelly -0.905%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.62%19.35%19.25%20.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.824.845.0023.09%20.74%20.64%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.69%4.05fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -0.502%
Kelly -0.671%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.60%24.72%24.67%26.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.763.803.9731.25%26.60%26.32%25.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rio Ave FC (Local): 56.04%; AVS Futebol SAD (Visit): 19.28%; Draw: 24.69%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.05. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.97, with an expected value of -1.99%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.89%EV -3.06%E -1.77%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.78%EV -7.47%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -7.42%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-17 19:45
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.47%EV -3.06%E -1.77%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -11.33%E -2.46%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -13.60%E -3.88%K -5.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-17 19:45
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.41%EV -4.18%E -2.44%K -5.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.29%EV -3.62%E -0.724%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.30%EV -1.99%E -0.502%K -0.671%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-17 19:44
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.13%EV -4.74%E -2.79%K -6.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -3.62%E -0.724%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.78%EV -4.95%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-17 19:44
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -4.74%E -2.79%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -7.47%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-17 19:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -4.74%E -2.79%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -7.47%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-17 19:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -4.74%E -2.79%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -7.47%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-17 19:44
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -4.74%E -2.79%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -11.33%E -2.46%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-17 19:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -4.74%E -2.79%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -11.33%E -2.46%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-17 19:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -4.74%E -2.79%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -11.33%E -2.46%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-17 19:44
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.09%EV -5.30%E -3.13%K -7.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.62%E -0.724%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-17 19:44
GTbets🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.00%EV -5.30%E -3.13%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.89I 20.45%NM 19.35%EV -5.74%E -1.17%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.65%EV -5.20%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-17 19:45
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.17%EV -5.30%E -3.13%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -8.44%E -1.78%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-17 19:45
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.98%EV -5.86%E -3.49%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -7.47%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -4.95%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-17 19:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.80%EV -5.86%E -3.49%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -7.47%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-17 19:44
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.86%E -3.49%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -4.58%E -0.926%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 19:45
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.86%E -3.49%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -4.58%E -0.926%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 19:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.65%EV -5.86%E -3.49%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -5.55%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-17 19:44
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -5.86%E -3.49%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -5.55%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -9.89%E -2.71%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-17 19:44
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.17%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -5.55%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-17 19:45
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.13%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -7.47%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.35%EV -4.95%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-17 19:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.87%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -7.47%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.69%EV -6.68%E -1.77%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 19:43
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -8.44%E -1.78%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -7.42%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 19:45
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -8.44%E -1.78%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -7.42%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 19:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -8.44%E -1.78%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-17 19:44
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -13.26%E -2.95%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 19:45
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -11.33%E -2.46%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-17 19:44
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.80%EV -6.98%E -4.20%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -8.44%E -1.78%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -7.42%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-17 19:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -7.54%E -4.57%K -11.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -3.62%E -0.724%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -3.72%E -0.954%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 19:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -7.54%E -4.57%K -11.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -3.62%E -0.724%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -3.72%E -0.954%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 19:45
Everygame🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.86%EV -7.54%E -4.57%K -11.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -3.62%E -0.724%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -4.95%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-17 19:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.68%EV -7.54%E -4.57%K -11.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -3.62%E -0.724%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 19:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.54%E -4.57%K -11.60%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.86%EV -4.58%E -0.926%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-17 19:44
FanDuel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.47%EV -7.54%E -4.57%K -11.60%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -5.55%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-17 19:43
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -7.54%E -4.57%K -11.60%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -8.44%E -1.78%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -7.42%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-17 19:45
Grosvenor🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.01%EV -8.10%E -4.94%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.62%E -0.724%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -4.95%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 19:45
Casumo🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.01%EV -8.10%E -4.94%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.62%E -0.724%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -4.95%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 19:45
betPARX🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.01%EV -8.10%E -4.94%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.62%E -0.724%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -4.95%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 19:45
Bally Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.01%EV -8.10%E -4.94%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.62%E -0.724%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -4.95%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 19:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.34%EV -8.10%E -4.94%K -12.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.66%EV -9.40%E -2.00%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%EV -4.95%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-17 19:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.07%EV -8.10%E -4.94%K -12.66%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -15.18%E -3.45%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-17 19:44
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.16%EV -8.66%E -5.31%K -13.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -3.62%E -0.724%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -4.95%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-17 19:45
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.92%EV -9.22%E -5.69%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -5.55%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-17 19:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.92%EV -9.22%E -5.69%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -5.55%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-17 19:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.92%EV -9.22%E -5.69%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -5.55%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-17 19:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.82%EV -9.22%E -5.69%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%EV -9.40%E -2.00%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -3.72%E -0.954%K -1.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 19:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.82%EV -9.22%E -5.69%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%EV -9.40%E -2.00%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -3.72%E -0.954%K -1.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 19:44
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.40%EV -9.22%E -5.69%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -8.44%E -1.78%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -7.42%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-17 19:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.18%EV -9.22%E -5.69%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.90%EV -16.53%E -3.82%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.92%EV -21.00%E -6.56%K -9.55%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-17 19:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.07%EV -9.78%E -6.08%K -16.03%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV -5.55%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-17 19:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.07%EV -9.78%E -6.08%K -16.03%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV -5.55%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-17 19:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.04%EV -10.34%E -6.46%K -17.24%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.62%EV -5.55%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -7.42%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-17 19:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.04%EV -10.34%E -6.46%K -17.24%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.62%EV -5.55%E -1.13%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -7.42%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-17 19:45
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -12.02%E -7.66%K -21.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -7.47%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-17 19:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.23%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.0%2026-04-17 19:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.23%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.0%2026-04-17 19:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.23%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.0%2026-04-17 19:45
Matchbook1.76I 56.82%NM 56.23%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.0%2026-04-17 19:45
Smarkets1.75I 57.14%NM 56.37%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66%1.4%2026-04-17 19:45
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 57.92%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.61%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.47%2.2%2026-04-17 19:45