Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moreirense FC v Sporting Lisbon

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moreirense FC (Local)

Prediction 8.06%12.41fair odd
EV +28.10%
Edge +1.77%
Kelly +1.89%
Growth +0.530%

assuming max odds 15.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.12%7.97%8.16%8.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.5011.4911.0015.909.52%8.70%9.09%6.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sporting Lisbon (Visit)

Prediction 76.08%1.31fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -2.66%
Kelly -12.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.05%76.15%76.04%77.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.231.231.2786.21%81.38%81.30%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.86%6.30fair odd
EV +3.11%
Edge +0.478%
Kelly +0.565%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.37%15.88%15.80%17.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.765.756.5020.00%17.35%17.39%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Moreirense FC (Local): 8.06%; Sporting Lisbon (Visit): 76.08%; Draw: 15.86%. For Moreirense FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.41. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +28.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯15.90I 6.29%NM 6.12%EV +28.10%E +1.77%K +1.89%G +0.530%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.89%EV -4.90%E -3.92%K -19.60%G +0.000%6.09I 16.42%NM 15.99%EV -3.40%E -0.558%K -0.667%G +0.000%2.7%2026-02-21 17:55
Coolbet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.80%EV +12.79%E +0.914%K +0.984%G +0.126%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -6.42%E -5.22%K -27.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -4.82%E -0.804%K -0.965%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 17:15
Tipico (DE)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.67%EV +12.79%E +0.914%K +0.984%G +0.126%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -8.70%E -7.25%K -43.51%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -4.82%E -0.804%K -0.965%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +4.74%E +0.364%K +0.395%G +0.019%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.95%EV -6.42%E -5.22%K -27.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.77%EV -4.82%E -0.804%K -0.965%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-21 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV +4.74%E +0.364%K +0.395%G +0.019%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.77%EV -8.70%E -7.25%K -43.51%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.05%EV -1.65%E -0.267%K -0.318%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 17:50
SportsBet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +4.74%E +0.364%K +0.395%G +0.019%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -8.70%E -7.25%K -43.51%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -4.82%E -0.804%K -0.965%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-21 17:30
Paddy Power🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +4.74%E +0.364%K +0.395%G +0.019%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -8.70%E -7.25%K -43.51%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -4.82%E -0.804%K -0.965%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-21 17:10
William Hill🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV +4.74%E +0.364%K +0.395%G +0.019%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.01%EV -7.18%E -5.89%K -32.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -12.76%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-21 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV +4.74%E +0.364%K +0.395%G +0.019%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.01%EV -7.18%E -5.89%K -32.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -12.76%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-21 17:55
Betr (AU)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV +0.707%E +0.057%K +0.061%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.20%EV -6.42%E -5.22%K -27.92%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -8.79%E -1.53%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-21 17:20
Betsson🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.44%EV +0.707%E +0.057%K +0.061%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.81%EV -7.94%E -6.56%K -37.82%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -6.41%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-21 17:20
NordicBet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.44%EV +0.707%E +0.057%K +0.061%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.81%EV -7.94%E -6.56%K -37.82%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -6.41%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-21 17:20
Pinnacle🎯12.36I 8.09%NM 7.74%EV -0.421%E -0.034%K -0.037%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.17%EV -5.66%E -4.56%K -23.58%G +0.000%6.34I 15.77%NM 15.09%EV +0.568%E +0.090%K +0.106%G +0.001%4.5%2026-02-21 17:40
Sky Bet🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -3.32%E -0.277%K -0.302%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -8.70%E -7.25%K -43.51%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +3.11%E +0.478%K +0.565%G +0.018%7.1%2026-02-21 17:10
Bet Right🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV -3.32%E -0.277%K -0.302%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.11%EV -7.18%E -5.89%K -32.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -8.79%E -1.53%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-21 17:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV -3.32%E -0.277%K -0.302%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.11%EV -7.18%E -5.89%K -32.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -8.79%E -1.53%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-21 17:15
888sport🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV -3.32%E -0.277%K -0.302%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.56%EV -7.18%E -5.89%K -32.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -12.76%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV -3.32%E -0.277%K -0.302%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.56%EV -7.18%E -5.89%K -32.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -12.76%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 17:55
Parions Sport (FR)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.65%EV -3.32%E -0.277%K -0.302%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.52%EV -8.70%E -7.25%K -43.51%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -8.00%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-21 17:35
Fanatics🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.25%EV -7.35%E -0.639%K -0.700%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.93%EV -4.90%E -3.92%K -19.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.82%EV -4.82%E -0.804%K -0.965%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 17:35
NetBet (FR)🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 7.84%EV -7.35%E -0.639%K -0.700%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 75.77%EV -9.46%E -7.95%K -49.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.39%EV -12.76%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-21 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯11.25I 8.89%NM 8.08%EV -9.36%E -0.832%K -0.914%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.10%EV -7.94%E -6.56%K -37.82%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.83%EV -14.34%E -2.66%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-21 17:55
BetOnline.ag🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.75%EV -11.38%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 76.43%EV -4.14%E -3.28%K -15.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.82%EV +3.11%E +0.478%K +0.565%G +0.018%3.8%2026-02-21 17:05
LowVig.ag🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.75%EV -11.38%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 76.43%EV -4.14%E -3.28%K -15.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.82%EV +3.11%E +0.478%K +0.565%G +0.018%3.8%2026-02-21 17:05
Svenska Spel🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -11.38%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.50%EV -3.38%E -2.66%K -12.51%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.90%EV -11.17%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-21 17:15
ATG (SE)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -11.38%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.50%EV -3.38%E -2.66%K -12.51%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.90%EV -11.17%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-21 17:15
Coral🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -11.38%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -4.90%E -3.92%K -19.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -4.82%E -0.804%K -0.965%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-21 17:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -11.38%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -4.90%E -3.92%K -19.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -4.82%E -0.804%K -0.965%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-21 17:10
BetMGM🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.38%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -5.66%E -4.56%K -23.58%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -4.82%E -0.804%K -0.965%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-21 17:30
DraftKings🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -11.38%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -5.66%E -4.56%K -23.58%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -4.82%E -0.804%K -0.965%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-21 17:10
Bovada🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -11.38%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -6.42%E -5.22%K -27.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -4.82%E -0.804%K -0.965%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 17:39
BetUS🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -11.38%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -6.42%E -5.22%K -27.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -4.82%E -0.804%K -0.965%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 17:35
Everygame🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -11.38%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.18%E -5.89%K -32.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -4.82%E -0.804%K -0.965%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-21 17:10
Betway🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV -11.38%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.58%EV -7.18%E -5.89%K -32.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -8.79%E -1.53%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 17:20
Bet Victor🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -11.38%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -7.18%E -5.89%K -32.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -12.76%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-21 17:15
BoyleSports🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -11.38%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -7.18%E -5.89%K -32.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -12.76%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-21 17:25
FanDuel🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV -11.38%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.69%EV -10.22%E -8.66%K -56.80%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -4.82%E -0.804%K -0.965%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-21 17:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.09%EV -11.38%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.12%EV -8.70%E -7.25%K -43.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -20.69%E -4.14%K -5.17%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-21 17:32
PMU (FR)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.03%EV -11.38%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 76.18%EV -11.75%E -10.13%K -73.41%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.78%EV -11.17%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%13.2%2026-02-21 17:10
Grosvenor🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -15.41%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.12%EV -4.14%E -3.28%K -15.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -12.76%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 17:15
Casumo🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -15.41%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.12%EV -4.14%E -3.28%K -15.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -12.76%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 17:15
betPARX🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -15.41%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.12%EV -4.14%E -3.28%K -15.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -12.76%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 17:15
Bally Bet🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -15.41%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.12%EV -4.14%E -3.28%K -15.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -12.76%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 17:15
Neds🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -15.41%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.08%EV -5.66%E -4.56%K -23.58%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.05%EV -8.00%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 17:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -15.41%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.08%EV -5.66%E -4.56%K -23.58%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.05%EV -8.00%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 17:10
TABtouch🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.84%EV -15.41%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.28%EV -4.90%E -3.92%K -19.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -12.76%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-21 17:15
BetRivers🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.84%EV -15.41%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.28%EV -4.90%E -3.92%K -19.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -12.76%E -2.32%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-21 17:15
Unibet🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -15.41%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.05%EV -4.90%E -3.92%K -19.60%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -14.34%E -2.66%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 17:15
Unibet (NL)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -15.41%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.05%EV -4.90%E -3.92%K -19.60%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -14.34%E -2.66%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 17:15
Unibet (SE)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -15.41%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.05%EV -4.90%E -3.92%K -19.60%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -14.34%E -2.66%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 17:15
LeoVegas🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -15.41%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.20%EV -5.66%E -4.56%K -23.58%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.04%EV -14.34%E -2.66%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-21 17:15
LiveScore Bet🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -15.41%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.20%EV -5.66%E -4.56%K -23.58%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.04%EV -14.34%E -2.66%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-21 17:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -15.41%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.20%EV -5.66%E -4.56%K -23.58%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.04%EV -14.34%E -2.66%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-21 17:15
Winamax (DE)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -15.41%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -8.70%E -7.25%K -43.51%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -4.82%E -0.804%K -0.965%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-21 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -15.41%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -8.70%E -7.25%K -43.51%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -4.82%E -0.804%K -0.965%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-21 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV -15.41%E -1.47%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 74.12%EV -6.42%E -5.22%K -27.92%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.20%EV -15.93%E -3.01%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-21 17:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)16.50I 6.06%NM 6.05%1.26I 79.37%NM 79.26%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.69%0.1%2026-02-21 17:55
Matchbook16.50I 6.06%NM 6.04%1.25I 80.00%NM 79.72%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.24%0.3%2026-02-21 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)15.50I 6.45%NM 6.42%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.95%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63%0.5%2026-02-21 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)15.50I 6.45%NM 6.42%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.95%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63%0.5%2026-02-21 17:55
Smarkets14.99I 6.67%NM 6.51%1.24I 80.65%NM 78.70%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.79%2.5%2026-02-21 17:55