The School of Odds
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Moreirense FC v CF Estrela

2026-10-31 15:30 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moreirense FC (Local)

Prediction 33.18%3.01fair odd
EV -7.09%
Edge -2.53%
Kelly -3.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.80%33.18%33.18%33.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.722.702.8039.22%36.74%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CF Estrela (Visit)

Prediction 38.04%2.63fair odd
EV -4.90%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -3.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.26%38.04%38.04%38.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.412.432.5045.45%41.43%41.15%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.78%3.47fair odd
EV -7.91%
Edge -2.47%
Kelly -3.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.16%28.78%28.78%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.133.103.2033.33%31.93%32.26%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Moreirense FC (Local): 33.18%; CF Estrela (Visit): 38.04%; Draw: 28.78%. For CF Estrela (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.63. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.50, with an expected value of -4.90%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.91%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 15:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.91%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 15:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.91%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 15:35
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.91%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 15:35
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.91%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 15:34
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.91%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 15:35
Bally Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.91%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 15:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.09%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.91%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 15:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 32.83%EV -9.75%E -3.58%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.82%EV -12.50%E -5.44%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -9.35%E -2.97%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 15:34
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.41%E -3.86%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -7.56%E -3.11%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.79%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 15:35
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.41%E -3.86%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -7.56%E -3.11%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.79%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 15:35
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -10.41%E -3.86%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -8.70%E -3.63%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -10.79%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-24 15:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -10.41%E -3.86%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -8.70%E -3.63%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -10.79%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-24 15:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -10.41%E -3.86%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -8.70%E -3.63%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -10.79%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-24 15:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -10.41%E -3.86%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.37%EV -8.70%E -3.63%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.41%EV -12.23%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 15:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.37%EV -12.07%E -4.55%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.63%EV -10.60%E -4.51%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.00%EV -12.23%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-24 15:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.68%EV -13.73%E -5.28%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.07%EV -12.50%E -5.44%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.25%EV -10.79%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-24 16:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 32.80%EV -13.73%E -5.28%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.77%EV -16.31%E -7.41%K -13.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.43%EV -13.67%E -4.56%K -6.83%G +0.000%17.2%2026-10-24 15:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.68%EV -15.39%E -6.03%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.17%EV -14.41%E -6.40%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.16%EV -12.23%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-24 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 35.18%2.08I 48.08%NM 33.83%2.27I 44.05%NM 30.99%42.1%2026-10-24 18:49