The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Moreirense FC v CF Estrela

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 15:30 UTC

Final: Moreirense FC 2–1 CF Estrela

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moreirense FC (Local)

Prediction 33.43%2.99fair odd
EV -0.717%
Edge -0.241%
Kelly -0.364%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.22%33.41%33.40%34.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.782.802.9739.22%35.98%35.71%33.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CF Estrela (Visit)

Prediction 37.47%2.67fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.553%
Kelly -0.892%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.46%37.46%37.45%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.462.482.6346.51%40.58%40.32%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.10%3.44fair odd
EV -1.06%
Edge -0.310%
Kelly -0.440%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.52%29.12%29.15%31.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.173.203.4033.33%31.52%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Moreirense FC (Local): 33.43%; CF Estrela (Visit): 37.47%; Draw: 29.10%. For Moreirense FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.99. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.97, with an expected value of -0.717%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 32.25%EV -0.717%E -0.241%K -0.364%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.46%EV -6.70%E -2.69%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.29%EV -4.84%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-31 10:14
BetUS🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.49%EV -3.06%E -1.05%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.07%EV -1.83%E -0.698%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.43%EV -3.97%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-31 15:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -3.06%E -1.05%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -4.45%E -1.75%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -12.70%E -4.23%K -6.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 15:25
Pinnacle🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.70%EV -3.73%E -1.29%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.90%EV -1.45%E -0.553%K -0.892%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.41%EV -3.97%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-31 15:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.96%EV -3.73%E -1.29%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.37%EV -4.83%E -1.90%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 15:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.96%EV -3.73%E -1.29%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.37%EV -4.83%E -1.90%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 15:20
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.88%EV -4.06%E -1.41%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -3.97%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-31 14:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.74%EV -4.06%E -1.41%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -5.42%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-31 14:29
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -6.33%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.42%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-31 15:15
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -6.33%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 15:25
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -4.45%E -1.75%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -9.79%E -3.16%K -4.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 15:19
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.90%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.80%EV -7.07%E -2.85%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 15:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.90%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.80%EV -7.07%E -2.85%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 15:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.90%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.80%EV -7.07%E -2.85%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 15:00
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.90%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.80%EV -7.07%E -2.85%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 15:00
betPARX🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.90%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.80%EV -7.07%E -2.85%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 15:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.90%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.80%EV -7.07%E -2.85%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 15:00
Bally Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.90%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.80%EV -7.07%E -2.85%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 15:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.90%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.80%EV -7.07%E -2.85%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 15:00
Neds🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.42%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 14:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.42%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 14:30
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -10.07%E -4.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-31 14:28
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -6.33%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.97%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-31 15:20
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.02%EV -4.83%E -1.90%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 15:23
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -6.33%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.42%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 15:25
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -4.45%E -1.75%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -9.79%E -3.16%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-31 15:20
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.33%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.79%E -3.16%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-31 15:20
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -6.33%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -12.70%E -4.23%K -6.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 15:15
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -6.33%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -12.70%E -4.23%K -6.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 15:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -6.33%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -12.70%E -4.23%K -6.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 15:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -6.33%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -12.70%E -4.23%K -6.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 15:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 33.33%EV -6.73%E -2.41%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.05%EV -5.95%E -2.37%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.62%EV -8.62%E -2.75%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 15:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -6.33%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -1.06%E -0.310%K -0.440%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-31 15:20
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -6.33%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -1.06%E -0.310%K -0.440%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-31 15:20
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -6.33%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.42%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 15:19
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.97%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 15:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.97%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 15:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.33%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.70%E -4.23%K -6.35%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 15:20
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -10.07%E -4.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -9.79%E -3.16%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-31 15:00
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -8.07%E -2.93%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -10.07%E -4.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -9.79%E -3.16%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-31 15:00
Betsson🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.98%EV -9.07%E -3.34%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV -5.58%E -2.21%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -8.33%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 15:25
NordicBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.98%EV -9.07%E -3.34%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV -5.58%E -2.21%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -8.33%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 15:25
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -6.33%E -2.53%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 15:20
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-31 15:20
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -8.20%E -3.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-31 15:19
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.37%EV -10.07%E -4.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.41%EV -11.24%E -3.69%K -5.48%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-31 15:01
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.37%EV -10.07%E -4.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.41%EV -11.24%E -3.69%K -5.48%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-31 15:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.37%EV -10.07%E -4.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.41%EV -11.24%E -3.69%K -5.48%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-31 15:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.12%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.57%EV -10.82%E -4.55%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.32%EV -11.24%E -3.69%K -5.48%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-31 15:01
Betclic (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.08%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -13.82%E -6.01%K -10.63%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.09%EV -7.46%E -2.35%K -3.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-31 15:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -11.41%E -4.31%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -10.07%E -4.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -3.97%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 15:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.47%EV -11.41%E -4.31%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.07%E -4.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -12.70%E -4.23%K -6.35%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-31 15:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.21%EV -11.41%E -4.31%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.45%EV -11.95%E -5.08%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.34%EV -12.70%E -4.23%K -6.35%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-31 15:00
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.51%EV -12.42%E -4.74%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.67%EV -10.07%E -4.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -5.42%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-31 15:20
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.36%EV -12.42%E -4.74%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.07%E -4.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-31 15:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 32.81%EV -13.09%E -5.03%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.68%EV -19.44%E -9.04%K -16.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.52%EV -9.79%E -3.16%K -4.66%G +0.000%17.2%2026-10-31 15:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.11%EV -14.76%E -5.79%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.82%EV -13.82%E -6.01%K -10.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.06%EV -9.79%E -3.16%K -4.66%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-31 15:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 32.02%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.98%3.33I 30.03%NM 30.00%0.1%2026-10-31 15:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.79%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.10%0.7%2026-10-31 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.79%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.10%0.7%2026-10-31 15:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.79%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.10%0.7%2026-10-31 15:20
Matchbook◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.79%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.10%0.7%2026-10-31 15:20
Smarkets◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.08%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.06%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.87%1.5%2026-10-31 15:25

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.