La escuela de los momios

Moreirense FC v CF Estrela

Inicio: 2026-05-02 14:30 UTC

Final: Moreirense FC 3–2 CF Estrela

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Moreirense FC (Local)

Predicción 31.66%3.16momio equitativo
EV +1.31%
Ventaja +0.410%
Kelly +0.597%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.17%31.54%31.72%32.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.002.983.2035.71%33.36%33.56%31.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

CF Estrela (Visitante)

Predicción 37.71%2.65momio equitativo
EV -1.21%
Ventaja -0.462%
Kelly -0.748%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.68%37.86%37.63%41.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.182.412.452.6245.87%41.56%40.82%38.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.63%3.26momio equitativo
EV -1.97%
Ventaja -0.616%
Kelly -0.896%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.33%30.60%30.65%31.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.063.103.2036.36%32.63%32.26%31.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV +1.31%E +0.410%K +0.597%G +0.008%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -14.03%E -6.15%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -1.97%E -0.616%K -0.896%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 14:10
ATG (SE)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV +1.31%E +0.410%K +0.597%G +0.008%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -14.03%E -6.15%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -1.97%E -0.616%K -0.896%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 14:10
Casumo3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV +1.31%E +0.410%K +0.597%G +0.008%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -14.03%E -6.15%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -3.50%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 14:10
Grosvenor3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV +1.31%E +0.410%K +0.597%G +0.008%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -14.03%E -6.15%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -3.50%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 14:10
betPARX3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV +1.31%E +0.410%K +0.597%G +0.008%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -14.03%E -6.15%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -3.50%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 14:10
Bally Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV +1.31%E +0.410%K +0.597%G +0.008%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -14.03%E -6.15%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -3.50%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 14:10
Unibet3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -0.271%E -0.086%K -0.126%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -15.16%E -6.74%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.50%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:21
Unibet (SE)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -0.271%E -0.086%K -0.126%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -15.16%E -6.74%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.50%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:10
Unibet (NL)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -0.271%E -0.086%K -0.126%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -15.16%E -6.74%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.50%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:10
TABtouch3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -0.271%E -0.086%K -0.126%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -15.16%E -6.74%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.50%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:20
BetRivers3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -0.271%E -0.086%K -0.126%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -15.16%E -6.74%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.50%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:10
LiveScore Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -0.271%E -0.086%K -0.126%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.20%EV -15.92%E -7.14%K -12.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 14:10
LeoVegas (SE)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -0.271%E -0.086%K -0.126%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.20%EV -15.92%E -7.14%K -12.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 14:10
GTbets3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -1.85%E -0.598%K -0.883%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.29%EV -6.11%E -2.45%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.95%EV -5.65%E -1.83%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 13:40
Tipico (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -1.85%E -0.598%K -0.883%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -9.63%E -3.26%K -4.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 14:20
PMU (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -1.85%E -0.598%K -0.883%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -17.05%E -7.75%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 14:10
Virgin Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -1.85%E -0.598%K -0.883%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -17.05%E -7.75%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 14:10
1xBet3.08I 32.47%NM 31.49%EV -2.49%E -0.807%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV -1.21%E -0.462%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.49%EV -5.65%E -1.83%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 14:20
Pinnacle3.05I 32.79%NM 31.79%EV -3.44%E -1.13%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.43%EV -2.34%E -0.904%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.78%EV -3.50%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 14:25
LeoVegas3.05I 32.79%NM 29.42%EV -3.44%E -1.13%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.16%EV -17.80%E -8.17%K -15.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.42%EV -6.57%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-02 14:10
Coolbet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -5.02%E -1.67%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.73%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -1.97%E -0.616%K -0.896%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 14:05
DraftKings3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -5.02%E -1.67%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -5.74%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 14:00
Coral3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.02%E -1.67%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -1.97%E -0.616%K -0.896%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 13:35
FanDuel3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.02%E -1.67%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.74%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -8.10%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 14:15
Ladbrokes (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.02%E -1.67%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 13:35
Neds3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.02%E -1.67%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 13:35
Ladbrokes (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.02%E -1.67%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 13:35
BetMGM3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.02%E -1.67%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 13:35
Betway3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.02%E -1.67%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -8.10%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 14:24
LowVig.ag2.98I 33.56%NM 31.81%EV -5.65%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.61%EV -4.98%E -1.98%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 14:05
BetOnline.ag2.98I 33.56%NM 31.81%EV -5.65%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.61%EV -4.98%E -1.98%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 14:05
Marathon Bet2.98I 33.56%NM 31.28%EV -5.65%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.44%EV -6.11%E -2.45%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.28%EV -8.71%E -2.92%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 14:26
Bovada2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.60%E -2.24%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.31%EV -4.98%E -1.98%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -6.57%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 14:15
BetUS2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.60%E -2.24%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.31%EV -4.98%E -1.98%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -6.57%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 14:10
Unibet (UK)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -6.60%E -2.24%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.49%EV -5.74%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -6.57%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 14:15
Betr (AU)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -6.60%E -2.24%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 14:05
Bet Right2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -6.60%E -2.24%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 14:05
PointsBet (AU)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -6.60%E -2.24%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 14:05
Betsson2.92I 34.25%NM 31.90%EV -7.55%E -2.59%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.56%EV -6.49%E -2.62%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.54%EV -6.57%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 14:10
NordicBet2.92I 34.25%NM 31.90%EV -7.55%E -2.59%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.56%EV -6.49%E -2.62%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.54%EV -6.57%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 14:10
NetBet (FR)2.92I 34.25%NM 31.02%EV -7.55%E -2.59%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.43%EV -8.75%E -3.62%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.56%EV -12.08%E -4.21%K -6.46%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 14:25
Fanatics2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -8.19%E -2.82%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -5.74%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 14:15
Everygame2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.19%E -2.82%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -5.74%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -6.57%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 14:10
PlayUp2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -8.19%E -2.82%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -5.74%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -8.10%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 14:10
SportsBet2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -8.19%E -2.82%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -8.10%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 14:15
Paddy Power2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -8.19%E -2.82%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -8.10%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 14:16
888sport2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.19%E -2.82%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -5.74%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 14:25
William Hill2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.19%E -2.82%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -5.74%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 14:25
888sport (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.19%E -2.82%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -5.74%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 14:25
Mr Green (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.19%E -2.82%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -5.74%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -11.16%E -3.85%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 14:25
Sky Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 32.21%EV -8.82%E -3.06%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 14:15
betfred_uk2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -8.82%E -3.06%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 14:03
Bet Victor2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -8.82%E -3.06%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.49%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.62%EV -8.10%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 14:23
Betclic (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -9.77%E -3.43%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.69%EV -3.85%E -1.51%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 30.48%EV -5.95%E -1.94%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 14:15
Winamax (DE)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -9.77%E -3.43%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -5.03%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 14:15
BoyleSports2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -11.35%E -4.05%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -5.74%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.10%E -2.70%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 14:05
Winamax (FR)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -11.35%E -4.05%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -6.57%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 14:15
Unibet (FR)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -11.35%E -4.05%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.96%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.70%EV -9.63%E -3.26%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 30.91%EV -11.35%E -4.05%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.63%EV -13.28%E -5.77%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.47%EV -15.76%E -5.73%K -9.00%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-02 14:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.56%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.37%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.07%0.6%2026-05-02 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.47%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.55%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.98%0.9%2026-05-02 14:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.47%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.55%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.98%0.9%2026-05-02 14:16
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 31.82%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.36%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%1.4%2026-05-02 14:25
Smarkets3.10I 32.26%NM 31.66%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.18%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%1.9%2026-05-02 14:21
Kalshi3.03I 33.00%NM 32.02%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.89%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.09%3.1%2026-05-02 14:25