The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Moreirense FC v AVS Futebol SAD

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moreirense FC (Local)

Prediction 49.79%2.01fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -3.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.89%49.79%49.82%51.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.871.881.9557.47%53.45%53.19%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AVS Futebol SAD (Visit)

Prediction 23.82%4.20fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -0.570%
Kelly -0.754%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.92%23.81%23.78%25.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.833.834.1028.99%26.09%26.14%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.39%3.79fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -0.858%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.76%26.40%26.40%28.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.473.503.6733.33%28.85%28.57%27.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Moreirense FC (Local): 49.79%; AVS Futebol SAD (Visit): 23.82%; Draw: 26.39%. For AVS Futebol SAD (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.20. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.10, with an expected value of -2.34%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -2.91%E -1.49%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -8.29%E -2.15%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -5.00%E -1.39%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-12 05:44
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -4.90%E -2.57%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.72%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-11 21:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -4.90%E -2.57%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -7.10%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-11 21:34
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -4.90%E -2.57%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -9.48%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-12 05:44
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -4.90%E -2.57%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -9.48%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-12 05:43
Bet Right🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -4.90%E -2.57%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -10.67%E -2.85%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-12 05:44
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -4.90%E -2.57%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -9.48%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -10.27%E -3.02%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-12 05:59
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -4.90%E -2.57%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -9.48%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -10.27%E -3.02%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-12 05:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -4.90%E -2.57%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -9.48%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -10.27%E -3.02%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-12 05:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -4.90%E -2.57%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -9.48%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -10.27%E -3.02%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-12 05:59
GTbets🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.66%EV -5.40%E -2.84%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 23.53%EV -4.48%E -1.12%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.11%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-12 05:39
Neds🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -5.40%E -2.84%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -7.10%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 21:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -5.40%E -2.84%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -7.10%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 21:09
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.95%EV -5.40%E -2.84%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -9.48%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-12 05:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.95%EV -5.40%E -2.84%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -9.48%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-12 05:44
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -5.40%E -2.84%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -10.67%E -2.85%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -10.27%E -3.02%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-12 05:44
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.86%EV -6.39%E -3.40%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.73%EV -5.91%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -6.32%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 21:54
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.86%EV -6.39%E -3.40%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.73%EV -5.91%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -6.32%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 21:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -6.39%E -3.40%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -7.10%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -8.96%E -2.60%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 23:52
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.06%EV -6.39%E -3.40%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -10.67%E -2.85%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-12 08:54
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.55%EV -6.89%E -3.69%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 23.69%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.76%EV -3.15%E -0.858%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-12 05:54
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -6.89%E -3.69%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -2.34%E -0.570%K -0.754%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-11 20:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -6.89%E -3.69%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -4.72%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 23:39
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -6.89%E -3.69%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -7.10%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-11 21:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.82%EV -7.39%E -3.97%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -8.29%E -2.15%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.11%EV -6.32%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-12 05:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.82%EV -7.39%E -3.97%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -8.29%E -2.15%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.11%EV -6.32%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-12 05:39
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -7.89%E -4.26%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -16.63%E -4.75%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -12.91%E -3.91%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-12 05:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.41%EV -8.39%E -4.56%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.31%EV -5.20%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.28%EV -6.84%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 20:16
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -8.88%E -4.85%K -10.70%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.02%EV -3.53%E -0.871%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -5.52%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-12 09:54
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -8.88%E -4.85%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -10.67%E -2.85%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-11 21:59
Everygame🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -8.88%E -4.85%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -10.67%E -2.85%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-12 05:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.89%EV -8.88%E -4.85%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.51%EV -16.63%E -4.75%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.60%EV -20.83%E -6.94%K -10.42%G +0.000%16.5%2026-05-12 07:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -10.38%E -5.77%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -14.25%E -3.96%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -10.27%E -3.02%K -4.28%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-11 20:19
NetBet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.18%EV -11.87%E -6.71%K -15.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.93%EV -5.91%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-12 09:53
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.99%EV -11.87%E -6.71%K -15.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%EV -10.67%E -2.85%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.41%EV -11.59%E -3.46%K -4.93%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-11 20:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 48.83%EV -13.37%E -7.68%K -18.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.63%EV -17.82%E -5.17%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.55%EV -15.55%E -4.86%K -7.07%G +0.000%17.7%2026-05-11 20:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 34.62%1.09I 91.74%NM 50.18%3.60I 27.78%NM 15.19%82.8%2026-05-12 08:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 34.62%1.09I 91.74%NM 50.18%3.60I 27.78%NM 15.19%82.8%2026-05-12 08:54
Smarkets◎1.12I 89.29%NM 41.98%1.05I 95.24%NM 44.78%3.55I 28.17%NM 13.24%112.7%2026-05-12 08:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 24.66%1.06I 94.34%NM 36.76%1.01I 99.01%NM 38.58%156.6%2026-05-12 08:55