Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moreirense FC v AVS Futebol SAD

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 14:30 UTC

Final: Moreirense FC 0–0 AVS Futebol SAD

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moreirense FC (Local)

Prediction 44.25%2.26fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -3.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.95%44.38%44.09%46.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.102.1750.00%47.73%47.62%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AVS Futebol SAD (Visit)

Prediction 28.17%3.55fair odd
EV -0.275%
Edge -0.078%
Kelly -0.108%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.67%28.07%28.29%29.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.303.303.5432.26%30.29%30.30%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.58%3.63fair odd
EV -0.716%
Edge -0.199%
Kelly -0.275%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.91%27.54%27.62%28.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.373.373.6033.33%29.67%29.67%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Moreirense FC (Local): 44.25%; AVS Futebol SAD (Visit): 28.17%; Draw: 27.58%. For AVS Futebol SAD (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.55. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.54, with an expected value of -0.275%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.95%EV -3.98%E -1.83%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.31%EV -10.42%E -3.28%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.74%EV -7.33%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 14:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.86%E -2.26%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -1.40%E -0.400%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.86%E -2.26%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -1.40%E -0.400%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 13:55
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.86%E -2.26%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -3.47%E -0.993%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 14:05
GTbets🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.09%EV -4.86%E -2.26%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.90%EV -7.60%E -2.32%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.01%EV -3.20%E -0.911%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-16 14:00
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.86%E -2.26%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 13:55
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.86%E -2.26%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.86%E -2.26%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 14:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.56%EV -4.86%E -2.26%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.64%EV -7.88%E -2.41%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.79%EV -7.06%E -2.09%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 14:10
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.86%E -2.26%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -8.44%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.86%E -2.26%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -8.44%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 14:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -4.86%E -2.26%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -9.85%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 14:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.90%EV -5.30%E -2.48%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 14:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.90%EV -5.30%E -2.48%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 14:10
Pinnacle🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.17%EV -5.75%E -2.70%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.18%EV -0.275%E -0.078%K -0.108%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.65%EV -4.03%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-16 14:05
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.13%EV -6.19%E -2.92%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 14:20
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.13%EV -6.19%E -2.92%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 14:20
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.13%EV -6.19%E -2.92%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 14:20
Bally Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.13%EV -6.19%E -2.92%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 14:20
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.76%EV -6.19%E -2.92%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -8.44%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 14:10
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.76%EV -6.19%E -2.92%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -8.44%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 14:10
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.92%EV -7.07%E -3.37%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -4.22%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -4.85%E -1.41%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 13:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -7.07%E -3.37%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -4.85%E -1.41%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 14:05
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -7.07%E -3.37%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -8.44%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -4.85%E -1.41%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 14:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -7.07%E -3.37%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -8.44%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 14:05
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.07%E -3.37%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 14:20
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.07%E -3.37%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 14:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.07%E -3.37%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 14:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.07%E -3.37%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 14:20
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.07%E -3.37%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 13:55
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.07%E -3.37%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -7.07%E -3.37%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -8.44%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -7.07%E -3.37%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -8.44%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 14:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -7.07%E -3.37%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -8.44%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 14:10
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -7.07%E -3.37%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -8.44%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 14:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -7.07%E -3.37%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -8.44%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 14:20
Bovada🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.03%EV -7.52%E -3.60%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -2.81%E -0.814%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 14:00
BetUS🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.03%EV -7.52%E -3.60%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -2.81%E -0.814%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 14:10
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -7.96%E -3.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -2.81%E -0.814%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 14:05
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -7.96%E -3.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -2.81%E -0.814%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 14:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.97%EV -8.40%E -4.06%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.44%EV -9.85%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.58%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.97%EV -8.40%E -4.06%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.44%EV -9.85%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.58%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 14:10
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -9.29%E -4.53%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -1.40%E -0.400%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 14:25
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.29%E -4.53%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.22%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 14:25
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.29%E -4.53%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.22%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 14:25
Everygame🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.29%E -4.53%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.22%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 14:00
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.97%EV -9.29%E -4.53%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -5.63%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 13:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -9.29%E -4.53%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.85%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -4.85%E -1.41%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 14:05
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.29%E -4.53%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.85%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 14:05
NetBet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -9.29%E -4.53%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -9.85%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-16 14:10
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.83%EV -9.29%E -4.53%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -11.26%E -3.58%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -10.37%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-16 14:10
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -9.29%E -4.53%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -12.67%E -4.09%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-16 14:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -11.50%E -5.75%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -1.40%E -0.400%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.47%E -0.993%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 14:00
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -11.50%E -5.75%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.22%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -0.716%E -0.199%K -0.275%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 14:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.20%EV -11.50%E -5.75%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.44%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 14:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -11.50%E -5.75%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -12.67%E -4.09%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-16 14:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.26%EV -11.50%E -5.75%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -12.67%E -4.09%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.84%EV -17.26%E -5.75%K -8.63%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-16 14:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.50I 40.00%NM 42.03%3.65I 27.40%NM 28.79%3.60I 27.78%NM 29.19%-4.8%2026-05-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.95%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.34%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.72%0.2%2026-05-16 14:25
Matchbook2.22I 45.05%NM 44.95%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.34%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.72%0.2%2026-05-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.96%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.71%0.3%2026-05-16 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.60%0.6%2026-05-16 14:25
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 45.13%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.43%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.43%2.1%2026-05-16 14:20