Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gil Vicente v FC Porto

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 19:30 UTC

Final: Gil Vicente 0–1 FC Porto

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gil Vicente (Local)

Prediction 13.17%7.59fair odd
EV +5.88%
Edge +0.731%
Kelly +0.835%
Growth +0.049%

assuming max odds 8.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.78%13.11%13.29%14.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.227.118.0416.00%13.86%14.06%12.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Porto (Visit)

Prediction 65.24%1.53fair odd
EV -3.45%
Edge -2.33%
Kelly -7.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.23%65.27%65.08%67.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.411.421.4874.63%70.77%70.42%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.59%4.63fair odd
EV -0.679%
Edge -0.148%
Kelly -0.189%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.59%21.62%21.62%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.264.294.6025.32%23.48%23.31%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gil Vicente (Local): 13.17%; FC Porto (Visit): 65.24%; Draw: 21.59%. For Gil Vicente (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.59. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.88%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯8.04I 12.44%NM 12.00%EV +5.88%E +0.731%K +0.835%G +0.049%1.44I 69.44%NM 67.02%EV -6.06%E -4.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.98%EV -0.679%E -0.148%K -0.189%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 19:20
Virgin Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +5.35%E +0.669%K +0.765%G +0.041%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.81%EV -8.01%E -5.68%K -19.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 19:20
Svenska Spel🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +5.35%E +0.669%K +0.765%G +0.041%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.81%EV -8.01%E -5.68%K -19.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 19:20
Grosvenor🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +5.35%E +0.669%K +0.765%G +0.041%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.81%EV -8.01%E -5.68%K -19.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 19:20
Casumo🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +5.35%E +0.669%K +0.765%G +0.041%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.81%EV -8.01%E -5.68%K -19.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 19:20
ATG (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +5.35%E +0.669%K +0.765%G +0.041%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.81%EV -8.01%E -5.68%K -19.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 19:20
betPARX🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +5.35%E +0.669%K +0.765%G +0.041%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.81%EV -8.01%E -5.68%K -19.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 19:20
Bally Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +5.35%E +0.669%K +0.765%G +0.041%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.81%EV -8.01%E -5.68%K -19.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 19:20
Pinnacle🎯7.90I 12.66%NM 12.18%EV +4.04%E +0.511%K +0.585%G +0.024%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.81%EV -6.06%E -4.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 21.01%EV -1.11%E -0.242%K -0.310%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-24 19:15
Tipico (DE)🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 11.98%EV +2.72%E +0.349%K +0.400%G +0.011%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -8.66%E -6.19%K -21.66%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯7.60I 13.16%NM 12.38%EV +0.085%E +0.011%K +0.013%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.24%EV -7.36%E -5.18%K -17.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 19:05
BetOnline.ag🎯7.60I 13.16%NM 12.38%EV +0.085%E +0.011%K +0.013%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.24%EV -7.36%E -5.18%K -17.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 19:05
Coolbet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.74%EV -1.23%E -0.164%K -0.190%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.03%EV -4.10%E -2.79%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.23%EV -7.16%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 18:49
DraftKings🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -1.23%E -0.164%K -0.190%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.82%EV -6.06%E -4.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-24 19:23
Bovada🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV -1.23%E -0.164%K -0.190%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.29%EV -7.36%E -5.18%K -17.52%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.15%EV -3.92%E -0.880%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 19:19
Fanatics🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -1.23%E -0.164%K -0.190%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -8.66%E -6.19%K -21.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -2.84%E -0.631%K -0.811%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 19:11
SportsBet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -1.23%E -0.164%K -0.190%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.45%EV -8.66%E -6.19%K -21.66%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 18:50
Paddy Power🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -1.23%E -0.164%K -0.190%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -8.66%E -6.19%K -21.66%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -6.51%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 18:40
FanDuel🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.23%EV -1.23%E -0.164%K -0.190%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.93%EV -10.62%E -7.75%K -28.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 18:50
LiveScore Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -1.23%E -0.164%K -0.190%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.11%EV -9.97%E -7.22%K -26.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 19:20
BetRivers🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.08%EV -1.23%E -0.164%K -0.190%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.61%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.32%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.31%EV -8.24%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 06:55
TABtouch🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -1.23%E -0.164%K -0.190%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.44%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 19:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -1.23%E -0.164%K -0.190%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -11.47%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 19:20
Unibet (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -1.23%E -0.164%K -0.190%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -11.47%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 19:20
Unibet (NL)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -1.23%E -0.164%K -0.190%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -11.47%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 19:20
Unibet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -1.23%E -0.164%K -0.190%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -11.47%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 19:20
PMU (FR)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -1.23%E -0.164%K -0.190%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.26%EV -11.93%E -8.83%K -34.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.82%EV -11.47%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-24 19:20
Betr (AU)🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 13.01%EV -4.52%E -0.624%K -0.724%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.05%EV -5.40%E -3.73%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV -7.16%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-24 18:48
GTbets🎯7.11I 14.06%NM 13.17%EV -6.37%E -0.896%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.01%EV -6.06%E -4.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 21.82%EV -7.37%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-21 07:39
Coral🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -7.82%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.38%EV -3.45%E -2.33%K -7.18%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.01%EV -6.51%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-24 18:35
Unibet (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -7.82%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.91%EV -5.40%E -3.73%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.64%EV -6.08%E -1.40%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 19:05
Betway🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -7.82%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.70%EV -6.71%E -4.69%K -15.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -2.84%E -0.631%K -0.811%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 19:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -7.82%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.01%EV -6.06%E -4.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.62%EV -6.51%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 18:35
BetMGM🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -7.82%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.42%EV -5.40%E -3.73%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 18:40
Neds🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -7.82%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.74%EV -6.06%E -4.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -8.24%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -7.82%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.74%EV -6.06%E -4.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -8.24%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 18:40
Sky Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -7.82%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.66%E -6.19%K -21.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -2.84%E -0.631%K -0.811%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 18:48
PointsBet (AU)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -7.82%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.06%EV -7.36%E -5.18%K -17.52%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -8.24%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 18:40
Bet Right🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -7.82%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.89%EV -7.36%E -5.18%K -17.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 18:40
betfred_uk🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -7.82%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -6.06%E -4.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -13.63%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 18:48
betano_uk🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -7.82%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -6.06%E -4.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -13.63%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 18:49
Bet Victor🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -7.82%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -6.06%E -4.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -13.63%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 18:48
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -7.82%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 19:15
Betsson🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 13.52%EV -10.45%E -1.54%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.31%EV -6.71%E -4.69%K -15.60%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.16%EV -10.39%E -2.50%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 17:40
NordicBet🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 13.52%EV -10.45%E -1.54%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.31%EV -6.71%E -4.69%K -15.60%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.16%EV -10.39%E -2.50%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 18:32
Marathon Bet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.78%EV -11.11%E -1.65%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.59%EV -6.06%E -4.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -7.16%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 18:35
PlayUp🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.70%EV -11.11%E -1.65%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.76%EV -5.40%E -3.73%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -11.47%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 19:25
Betclic (FR)🎯6.60I 15.15%NM 13.53%EV -13.08%E -1.98%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.70%EV -9.97%E -7.22%K -26.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -11.47%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 19:05
888sport🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -14.40%E -2.22%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -6.06%E -4.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -13.63%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 18:40
William Hill🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -14.40%E -2.22%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -6.06%E -4.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -13.63%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 18:49
888sport (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -14.40%E -2.22%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -6.06%E -4.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -13.63%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 18:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -14.40%E -2.22%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -6.06%E -4.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -13.63%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 18:40
BoyleSports🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -14.40%E -2.22%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -8.66%E -6.19%K -21.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 18:40
NetBet (FR)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -14.40%E -2.22%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.56%EV -9.97%E -7.22%K -26.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.73%EV -11.47%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-24 19:25
Unibet (FR)🎯6.30I 15.87%NM 13.71%EV -17.04%E -2.70%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 64.44%EV -12.58%E -9.39%K -37.00%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.86%EV -14.71%E -3.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-24 19:05
Winamax (DE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.59%EV -17.69%E -2.83%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.68%EV -8.01%E -5.68%K -19.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.46%EV -17.69%E -2.83%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.53%EV -8.66%E -6.19%K -21.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.01%EV -7.16%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 19:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎9.00I 11.11%NM 11.06%1.48I 67.57%NM 67.29%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.65%0.4%2026-10-24 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.58%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.7%2026-10-24 19:25
Matchbook◎8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.58%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.7%2026-10-24 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%1.48I 67.57%NM 67.12%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59%0.7%2026-10-24 19:20
Smarkets◎8.80I 11.36%NM 11.24%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.27%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%1.1%2026-10-24 19:20
Kalshi◎8.33I 12.00%NM 11.77%1.45I 68.97%NM 67.63%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.60%2.0%2026-10-24 19:05