Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Porto v Moreirense FC

2026-09-04 19:15 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Porto (Local)

Prediction 79.97%1.25fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -3.37%
Kelly -20.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.46%79.89%80.12%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.161.151.2089.29%86.44%86.96%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Moreirense FC (Visit)

Prediction 6.46%15.48fair odd
EV +22.73%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.26%
Growth +0.287%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.90%6.54%6.34%7.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0014.2514.0019.009.09%7.02%7.14%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.57%7.37fair odd
EV +1.81%
Edge +0.241%
Kelly +0.279%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.47%13.57%13.53%16.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.746.807.5017.39%14.84%14.71%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FC Porto (Local): 79.97%; Moreirense FC (Visit): 6.46%; Draw: 13.57%. For Moreirense FC (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.48. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 19.00, producing a positive expected value of +22.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.91%EV -5.64%E -4.78%K -31.33%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.90%EV +22.73%E +1.20%K +1.26%G +0.287%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -21.95%E -3.82%K -4.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 09:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.80%EV -6.44%E -5.50%K -37.88%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.84%EV +3.35%E +0.209%K +0.223%G +0.007%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -11.76%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 09:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.97%EV -8.04%E -6.99%K -53.59%G +0.000%15.75I 6.35%NM 5.91%EV +1.73%E +0.110%K +0.118%G +0.002%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.12%EV -3.62%E -0.510%K -0.593%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 12:30
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.91%EV -4.04%E -3.37%K -20.20%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.39%EV -3.11%E -0.207%K -0.222%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.70%EV -4.98%E -0.711%K -0.829%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-31 09:00
Pinnacle🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.02%EV -6.44%E -5.50%K -37.88%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -3.11%E -0.207%K -0.222%G +0.000%7.49I 13.35%NM 12.66%EV +1.68%E +0.224%K +0.258%G +0.004%5.5%2026-08-31 10:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.18%EV -5.64%E -4.78%K -31.33%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -3.11%E -0.207%K -0.222%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.52%EV -4.98%E -0.711%K -0.829%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-31 09:00
Grosvenor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -6.44%E -5.50%K -37.88%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -3.11%E -0.207%K -0.222%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -4.98%E -0.711%K -0.829%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-31 08:24
Casumo🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -6.44%E -5.50%K -37.88%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -3.11%E -0.207%K -0.222%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -4.98%E -0.711%K -0.829%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-31 08:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -6.44%E -5.50%K -37.88%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -3.11%E -0.207%K -0.222%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -4.98%E -0.711%K -0.829%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-31 08:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -6.44%E -5.50%K -37.88%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -3.11%E -0.207%K -0.222%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -4.98%E -0.711%K -0.829%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-31 08:24
betPARX🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -6.44%E -5.50%K -37.88%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -3.11%E -0.207%K -0.222%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -4.98%E -0.711%K -0.829%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-31 08:24
Bally Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -6.44%E -5.50%K -37.88%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -3.11%E -0.207%K -0.222%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -4.98%E -0.711%K -0.829%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-31 08:25
BoyleSports🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.35%EV -5.64%E -4.78%K -31.33%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -3.11%E -0.207%K -0.222%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -11.76%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-31 09:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -8.04%E -6.99%K -53.59%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -3.11%E -0.207%K -0.222%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV +1.81%E +0.241%K +0.279%G +0.005%7.0%2026-08-31 10:20
betano_uk🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.91%EV -8.84%E -7.75%K -63.14%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.07%EV -3.11%E -0.207%K -0.222%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -11.76%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-31 10:04
Bet Victor🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.91%EV -8.84%E -7.75%K -63.14%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.07%EV -3.11%E -0.207%K -0.222%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -11.76%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-31 10:03
Betclic (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.91%EV -8.84%E -7.75%K -63.14%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.28%EV -6.34%E -0.437%K -0.470%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.80%EV -10.41%E -1.58%K -1.86%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-31 08:58
NetBet (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.44%EV -10.44%E -9.32%K -86.99%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.21%EV -6.34%E -0.437%K -0.470%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.35%EV -8.37%E -1.24%K -1.46%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-31 13:00
BetMGM🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.68%EV -4.84%E -4.07%K -25.48%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.77%EV -9.57%E -0.684%K -0.736%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.55%EV -4.98%E -0.711%K -0.829%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 09:15
Fanatics🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -6.44%E -5.50%K -37.88%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -9.57%E -0.684%K -0.736%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -4.98%E -0.711%K -0.829%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-31 09:00
Neds🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.64%EV -6.44%E -5.50%K -37.88%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV -9.57%E -0.684%K -0.736%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.70%EV -7.69%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-31 09:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.64%EV -6.44%E -5.50%K -37.88%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV -9.57%E -0.684%K -0.736%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.70%EV -7.69%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-31 09:15
BetRivers🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.42%EV -8.04%E -6.99%K -53.59%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.52%EV -9.57%E -0.684%K -0.736%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.05%EV -11.76%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 08:24
PMU (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.42%EV -8.04%E -6.99%K -53.59%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.52%EV -9.57%E -0.684%K -0.736%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.05%EV -11.76%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 08:24
TABtouch🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.42%EV -8.04%E -6.99%K -53.59%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.52%EV -9.57%E -0.684%K -0.736%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.05%EV -11.76%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 08:24
Unibet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.57%EV -8.84%E -7.75%K -63.14%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.48%EV -9.57%E -0.684%K -0.736%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -11.76%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 08:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.57%EV -8.84%E -7.75%K -63.14%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.48%EV -9.57%E -0.684%K -0.736%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -11.76%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 08:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.57%EV -8.84%E -7.75%K -63.14%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.48%EV -9.57%E -0.684%K -0.736%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -11.76%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 08:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.71%EV -9.64%E -8.53%K -74.14%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.43%EV -9.57%E -0.684%K -0.736%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.86%EV -11.76%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-31 08:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.71%EV -9.64%E -8.53%K -74.14%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.43%EV -9.57%E -0.684%K -0.736%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.86%EV -11.76%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-31 08:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.71%EV -9.64%E -8.53%K -74.14%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.43%EV -9.57%E -0.684%K -0.736%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.86%EV -11.76%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-31 08:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.73%EV -8.04%E -6.99%K -53.59%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.79%EV -12.80%E -0.948%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.48%EV -7.69%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-31 12:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.73%EV -8.04%E -6.99%K -53.59%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.79%EV -12.80%E -0.948%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.48%EV -7.69%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-31 12:05
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.44%E -5.50%K -37.88%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -16.03%E -1.23%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -4.98%E -0.711%K -0.829%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 12:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.44%E -5.50%K -37.88%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -16.03%E -1.23%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -4.98%E -0.711%K -0.829%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 12:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.44%E -5.50%K -37.88%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -16.03%E -1.23%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -4.98%E -0.711%K -0.829%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 12:25
William Hill🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.44%E -5.50%K -37.88%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -16.03%E -1.23%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -4.98%E -0.711%K -0.829%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 12:30
Betway🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -8.04%E -6.99%K -53.59%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -16.03%E -1.23%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -4.98%E -0.711%K -0.829%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-31 10:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 78.02%EV -9.64%E -8.53%K -74.14%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.78%EV -16.03%E -1.23%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.20%EV -21.27%E -3.67%K -4.43%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-31 09:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.46%EV -8.84%E -7.75%K -63.14%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.78%EV -25.72%E -2.24%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -11.76%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-31 09:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 77.46%EV -9.64%E -8.53%K -74.14%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.96%EV -28.95%E -2.63%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.59%EV -18.55%E -3.09%K -3.71%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-31 09:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.19I 84.03%NM 81.56%16.67I 6.00%NM 5.82%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.62%3.0%2026-08-31 09:05
Smarkets1.13I 88.50%NM 77.81%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.03%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.16%13.7%2026-08-31 09:00