The School of Odds
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FC Porto v Estoril

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 20:32 UTC

Final: FC Porto 4–0 Estoril

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Porto (Local)

Prediction 82.41%1.21fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -3.80%
Kelly -27.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.60%82.46%82.39%85.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.121.131.1692.59%88.93%88.50%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estoril (Visit)

Prediction 5.59%17.90fair odd
EV +28.46%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.368%

assuming max odds 23.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.06%5.58%5.52%8.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0016.6417.0023.0010.00%6.01%5.88%4.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.01%8.33fair odd
EV +14.07%
Edge +1.48%
Kelly +1.66%
Growth +0.233%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.84%11.96%12.09%16.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.107.868.009.5019.61%12.73%12.50%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Porto (Local): 82.41%; Estoril (Visit): 5.59%; Draw: 12.01%. For Estoril (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 17.90. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 23.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +28.46%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.21%EV -9.35%E -8.50%K -93.52%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.08%EV +28.46%E +1.24%K +1.29%G +0.368%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.71%EV +5.06%E +0.579%K +0.653%G +0.033%6.7%2026-10-31 20:30
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.94%EV -9.35%E -8.50%K -93.52%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +28.46%E +1.24%K +1.29%G +0.368%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV +2.06%E +0.243%K +0.275%G +0.006%7.0%2026-10-31 20:30
FanDuel🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.16%EV -10.18%E -9.34%K -113.06%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV +17.29%E +0.823%K +0.865%G +0.149%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -3.94%E -0.493%K -0.563%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 20:28
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.85%EV -11.00%E -10.19%K -137.50%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.36%EV +17.29%E +0.823%K +0.865%G +0.149%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV +2.06%E +0.243%K +0.275%G +0.006%9.1%2026-10-31 20:30
Pinnacle🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 84.12%EV -5.23%E -4.55%K -34.88%G +0.000%20.07I 4.98%NM 4.82%EV +12.10%E +0.603%K +0.634%G +0.077%8.75I 11.43%NM 11.06%EV +5.06%E +0.579%K +0.653%G +0.033%3.4%2026-10-31 20:20
Betsson🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.73%EV -8.53%E -7.68%K -77.52%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.65%EV +11.71%E +0.585%K +0.616%G +0.072%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -3.94%E -0.493%K -0.563%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-31 20:15
NordicBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.73%EV -8.53%E -7.68%K -77.52%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.65%EV +11.71%E +0.585%K +0.616%G +0.072%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -3.94%E -0.493%K -0.563%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-31 20:15
Sky Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.20%EV -9.35%E -8.50%K -93.52%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV +6.12%E +0.322%K +0.340%G +0.021%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV +14.07%E +1.48%K +1.66%G +0.233%6.7%2026-10-31 20:14
PlayUp🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.41%EV -7.70%E -6.88%K -64.20%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV +6.12%E +0.322%K +0.340%G +0.021%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -3.94%E -0.493%K -0.563%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 20:29
Coolbet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.68%EV -4.41%E -3.80%K -27.55%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.33%EV +0.535%E +0.030%K +0.031%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -3.94%E -0.493%K -0.563%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-31 20:00
Fanatics🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.05%EV -6.88%E -6.09%K -52.92%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV +0.535%E +0.030%K +0.031%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -3.94%E -0.493%K -0.563%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 20:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.97%EV -9.35%E -8.50%K -93.52%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.19%EV +0.535%E +0.030%K +0.031%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.84%EV +14.07%E +1.48%K +1.66%G +0.233%7.0%2026-10-31 20:30
Coral🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.13%EV -5.23%E -4.55%K -34.88%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.62%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.25%EV +2.06%E +0.243%K +0.275%G +0.006%4.6%2026-10-31 20:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.67%EV -6.06%E -5.31%K -43.25%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -3.94%E -0.493%K -0.563%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 20:10
Casumo🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.67%EV -6.06%E -5.31%K -43.25%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -3.94%E -0.493%K -0.563%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 20:10
Grosvenor🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.67%EV -6.06%E -5.31%K -43.25%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -3.94%E -0.493%K -0.563%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 20:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.67%EV -6.06%E -5.31%K -43.25%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -3.94%E -0.493%K -0.563%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 20:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.67%EV -6.06%E -5.31%K -43.25%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -3.94%E -0.493%K -0.563%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 20:10
Bally Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.67%EV -6.06%E -5.31%K -43.25%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -3.94%E -0.493%K -0.563%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 20:10
betPARX🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.67%EV -6.06%E -5.31%K -43.25%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -3.94%E -0.493%K -0.563%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 20:09
Betway🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.37%EV -6.88%E -6.09%K -52.92%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.08%EV +2.06%E +0.243%K +0.275%G +0.006%6.1%2026-10-31 20:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.90%EV -5.23%E -4.55%K -34.88%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.56%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-31 20:30
Bovada🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.10%EV -6.88%E -6.09%K -52.92%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.52%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.38%EV -0.940%E -0.114%K -0.130%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 20:28
888sport🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -6.06%E -5.31%K -43.25%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 20:29
William Hill🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -6.06%E -5.31%K -43.25%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 20:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -6.06%E -5.31%K -43.25%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 20:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -6.06%E -5.31%K -43.25%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 20:29
DraftKings🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -6.06%E -5.31%K -43.25%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 20:30
BoyleSports🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -6.06%E -5.31%K -43.25%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 20:30
betano_uk🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -8.53%E -7.68%K -77.52%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 20:19
Bet Victor🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -8.53%E -7.68%K -77.52%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -5.05%E -0.297%K -0.316%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 20:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.98%EV -10.18%E -9.34%K -113.06%G +0.000%16.25I 6.15%NM 5.57%EV -9.24%E -0.569%K -0.606%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.45%EV -5.14%E -0.651%K -0.745%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-31 20:30
BetUS🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.94%EV -6.88%E -6.09%K -52.92%G +0.000%16.05I 6.23%NM 5.84%EV -10.36%E -0.645%K -0.688%G +0.000%8.35I 11.98%NM 11.22%EV +0.260%E +0.031%K +0.035%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 20:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.95%EV -5.23%E -4.55%K -34.88%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.89%EV -10.64%E -0.665%K -0.709%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.16%EV -6.94%E -0.896%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 20:00
Bet Right🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.75%EV -6.06%E -5.31%K -43.25%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV -10.64%E -0.665%K -0.709%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 20:29
BetMGM🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.40%EV -5.23%E -4.55%K -34.88%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.11%EV -13.43%E -0.866%K -0.926%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.49%EV -0.940%E -0.114%K -0.130%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-31 20:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.51%EV -5.23%E -4.55%K -34.88%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV -16.22%E -1.08%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.16%EV +2.06%E +0.243%K +0.275%G +0.006%5.4%2026-10-31 20:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -5.23%E -4.55%K -34.88%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -16.22%E -1.08%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 20:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -7.70%E -6.88%K -64.20%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -16.22%E -1.08%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 19:15
BetRivers🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -7.70%E -6.88%K -64.20%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -16.22%E -1.08%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 20:10
TABtouch🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -7.70%E -6.88%K -64.20%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -16.22%E -1.08%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 20:10
Unibet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.83%EV -8.53%E -7.68%K -77.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -16.22%E -1.08%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-31 20:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.83%EV -8.53%E -7.68%K -77.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -16.22%E -1.08%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-31 20:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.83%EV -8.53%E -7.68%K -77.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -16.22%E -1.08%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-31 20:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.83%EV -8.53%E -7.68%K -77.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -16.22%E -1.08%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-31 20:10
betfred_uk🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.99%EV -7.70%E -6.88%K -64.20%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV -16.22%E -1.08%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -15.95%E -2.28%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-31 20:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.10%EV -10.18%E -9.34%K -113.06%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.97%EV -16.22%E -1.08%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -9.95%E -1.33%K -1.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-31 20:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.48%EV -9.35%E -8.50%K -93.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.90%EV -16.22%E -1.08%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.62%EV -21.95%E -3.38%K -3.99%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-31 20:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.69%EV -6.88%E -6.09%K -52.92%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.44%EV -19.01%E -1.31%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.87%EV +3.26%E +0.379%K +0.429%G +0.014%7.0%2026-10-31 20:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.69%EV -6.88%E -6.09%K -52.92%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.44%EV -19.01%E -1.31%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.87%EV +3.26%E +0.379%K +0.429%G +0.014%7.0%2026-10-31 20:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 81.24%EV -10.18%E -9.34%K -113.06%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.11%EV -19.01%E -1.31%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -15.95%E -2.28%K -2.66%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-31 20:30
Neds🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.99%EV -6.06%E -5.31%K -43.25%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -21.81%E -1.56%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.33%EV -0.940%E -0.114%K -0.130%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 20:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.99%EV -6.06%E -5.31%K -43.25%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -21.81%E -1.56%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.33%EV -0.940%E -0.114%K -0.130%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 20:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.93%EV -7.70%E -6.88%K -64.20%G +0.000%13.75I 7.27%NM 6.51%EV -23.20%E -1.69%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.56%EV -20.75%E -3.14%K -3.71%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-31 20:28
Winamax (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.90%EV -8.53%E -7.68%K -77.52%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.73%EV -24.60%E -1.82%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -3.94%E -0.493%K -0.563%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-31 20:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 75.60%EV -10.18%E -9.34%K -113.06%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.24%EV -44.15%E -4.41%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.16%EV -38.76%E -7.60%K -9.45%G +0.000%21.4%2026-10-31 20:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.90%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.67%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.43%0.9%2026-10-31 20:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.90%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.67%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.43%0.9%2026-10-31 20:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.90%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.67%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.43%0.9%2026-10-31 20:30
Kalshi◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.24%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.93%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83%1.7%2026-10-31 20:30
Matchbook◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.24%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.93%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83%1.7%2026-10-31 20:30
Smarkets◎1.13I 88.50%NM 86.34%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.90%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.76%2.5%2026-10-31 20:30