Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.95
assuming max odds 4.59
assuming max odds 3.50
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Famalicão (Local): 49.49%; Alverca (Visit): 22.27%; Draw: 28.24%. For Alverca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.49. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.59, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.23%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -4.49%E -2.33%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.59I 21.79%NM 21.02%EV +2.23%E +0.486%K +0.621%G +0.014% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.98%EV -5.95%E -1.79%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-12 19:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.68%EV -4.99%E -2.60%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.53I 22.08%NM 21.06%EV +0.894%E +0.197%K +0.253%G +0.002% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.26%EV -7.93%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-12 15:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.68%EV -4.99%E -2.60%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.53I 22.08%NM 21.06%EV +0.894%E +0.197%K +0.253%G +0.002% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.26%EV -7.93%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-12 15:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.62%EV -6.47%E -3.42%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.07%EV -0.888%E -0.200%K -0.257%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -9.63%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-12 19:03 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.62%EV -6.47%E -3.42%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.07%EV -0.888%E -0.200%K -0.257%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -9.63%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-12 19:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -8.45%E -4.57%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -2.00%E -0.455%K -0.589%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-12 19:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.90%EV -6.97%E -3.71%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -3.56%E -0.822%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-12 18:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.48%E -2.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -4.23%E -0.984%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-12 19:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.48%E -2.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -4.23%E -0.984%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-12 15:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.19%EV -8.95%E -4.86%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -4.23%E -0.984%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -1.15%E -0.329%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-12 18:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.32%EV -9.44%E -5.16%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -4.23%E -0.984%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -1.15%E -0.329%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-12 18:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.32%EV -9.44%E -5.16%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -4.23%E -0.984%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -1.15%E -0.329%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-12 18:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.32%EV -9.44%E -5.16%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -4.23%E -0.984%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -1.15%E -0.329%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-12 18:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.32%EV -9.44%E -5.16%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -4.23%E -0.984%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -1.15%E -0.329%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-12 18:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.32%EV -9.44%E -5.16%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -4.23%E -0.984%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -1.15%E -0.329%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-12 18:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.32%EV -9.44%E -5.16%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -4.23%E -0.984%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -1.15%E -0.329%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-12 18:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.99%EV -5.48%E -2.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV -4.23%E -0.984%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -9.63%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-12 18:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.99%EV -5.48%E -2.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV -4.23%E -0.984%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -9.63%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-12 18:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.86%EV -4.99%E -2.60%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.47%EV -5.12%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.67%EV -2.28%E -0.660%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-12 19:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.48%E -2.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -6.46%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-12 18:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.48%E -2.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -6.46%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-12 19:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.48%E -2.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -6.46%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-12 19:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -5.98%E -3.15%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -6.46%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 19:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -5.98%E -3.15%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -6.46%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 19:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -5.48%E -2.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -6.46%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-12 19:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -5.48%E -2.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -6.46%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -9.63%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-12 18:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.01%EV -7.96%E -4.28%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -6.46%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.85%EV -5.67%E -1.70%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-12 07:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.82%EV -7.46%E -3.99%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -6.46%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -12.45%E -4.02%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-12 19:02 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.94%EV -3.50%E -1.80%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.99%EV -7.57%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.07%EV -3.98%E -1.17%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-12 17:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.35%EV -4.99%E -2.60%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.68%E -2.12%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.01%EV -9.63%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-12 19:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.35%EV -4.99%E -2.60%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.68%E -2.12%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.01%EV -9.63%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-12 19:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.48%EV -5.48%E -2.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.58%EV -8.68%E -2.12%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -9.63%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-12 19:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.60%EV -10.93%E -6.07%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -8.68%E -2.12%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -5.39%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-12 18:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.74%EV -11.42%E -6.38%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -8.68%E -2.12%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -5.39%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-12 18:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.74%EV -11.42%E -6.38%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -8.68%E -2.12%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -5.39%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-12 18:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.67%EV -11.92%E -6.69%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.00%EV -8.68%E -2.12%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-12 18:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.67%EV -11.92%E -6.69%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.00%EV -8.68%E -2.12%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-12 18:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.67%EV -11.92%E -6.69%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.00%EV -8.68%E -2.12%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-12 18:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -5.98%E -3.15%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -10.91%E -2.73%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -1.15%E -0.329%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-12 15:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -7.46%E -3.99%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -10.91%E -2.73%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-12 18:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -8.45%E -4.57%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -10.91%E -2.73%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-12 19:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.28%EV -9.44%E -5.16%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -10.91%E -2.73%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -9.63%E -3.01%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-12 15:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.53%EV -12.41%E -7.01%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -10.91%E -2.73%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-12 18:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.61%EV -13.40%E -7.66%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -10.91%E -2.73%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-12 18:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.75%EV -11.92%E -6.69%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -10.91%E -2.73%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.11%EV -11.04%E -3.50%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-12 18:48 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 49.90%EV -11.42%E -6.38%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 22.44%EV -11.36%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 27.65%EV -8.78%E -2.72%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-12 18:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.02%EV -5.98%E -3.15%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -12.02%E -3.04%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -3.98%E -1.17%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-12 15:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.88%EV -5.98%E -3.15%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -13.14%E -3.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -3.98%E -1.17%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-12 15:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -5.48%E -2.87%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -13.14%E -3.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-12 15:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.21%EV -7.96%E -4.28%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -13.14%E -3.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -5.39%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-12 18:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -9.44%E -5.16%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -13.14%E -3.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -3.98%E -1.17%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-12 19:03 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -9.44%E -5.16%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -13.14%E -3.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -3.98%E -1.17%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-12 19:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.45%E -4.57%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -13.14%E -3.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-12 19:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.45%E -4.57%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -13.14%E -3.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-12 19:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.77%EV -8.95%E -4.86%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%EV -15.37%E -4.04%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -8.21%E -2.53%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-12 18:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 49.38%EV -13.40%E -7.66%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.74%EV -15.37%E -4.04%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.88%EV -12.45%E -4.02%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-10-12 19:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -5.98%E -3.15%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -16.48%E -4.39%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -6.80%E -2.06%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-12 15:29 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.66% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21% | 0.7% | 2026-10-12 19:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.66% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21% | 0.7% | 2026-10-12 19:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.78% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.14% | 0.9% | 2026-10-12 19:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.78% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.14% | 0.9% | 2026-10-12 19:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.68% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.39% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.93% | 1.7% | 2026-10-12 19:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.02% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.44% | 2.0% | 2026-10-12 18:30 |