The School of Odds

Estoril v Famalicão

2026-08-07 19:15 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Estoril (Local)

Prediction 29.19%3.43fair odd
EV -5.14%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -2.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.31%29.10%29.21%29.94%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.853.123.153.2535.09%32.06%31.75%30.77%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Famalicão (Visit)

Prediction 44.14%2.27fair odd
EV -4.21%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -3.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.39%44.12%44.13%44.66%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.922.072.102.1752.08%48.23%47.62%46.08%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.67%3.75fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.20%26.78%26.67%27.88%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.153.403.403.6031.75%29.37%29.41%27.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
888sport3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -5.14%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.99%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-27 11:45
888sport (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -5.14%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.99%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-27 11:45
Mr Green (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -5.14%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.99%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-27 11:45
Coolbet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -6.60%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.84%EV -4.21%E -1.94%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.43%EV -3.99%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-27 10:40
Fanatics3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.60%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -6.66%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-27 12:15
Betclic (FR)3.18I 31.45%NM 28.51%EV -7.18%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 44.66%EV -10.39%E -5.12%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.82%EV -9.86%E -2.92%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-27 11:15
Betr (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -8.06%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -3.99%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 11:14
SportsBet3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -8.06%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.88%EV -6.42%E -3.03%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.66%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-27 10:40
Bet Right3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -8.06%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.12%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -6.66%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-27 11:15
FanDuel3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.52%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.66%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-27 10:39
Paddy Power3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.52%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.66%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-27 10:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.52%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.66%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-27 10:40
BoyleSports3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.52%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.51%E -4.64%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -9.33%E -2.74%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-27 10:40
Unibet (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -10.97%E -3.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.28%EV -12.60%E -6.36%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -13.33%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-27 11:15
Sky Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -12.43%E -4.14%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.51%E -4.64%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -11.99%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-27 10:40
Winamax (DE)2.95I 33.90%NM 29.55%EV -13.89%E -4.71%K -7.12%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.03%EV -12.60%E -6.36%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.42%EV -11.99%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-27 11:15
Winamax (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 29.51%EV -16.81%E -5.90%K -9.09%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 43.80%EV -15.25%E -7.94%K -16.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.70%EV -15.99%E -5.08%K -7.44%G +0.000%18.9%2026-07-27 11:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.98I 33.56%NM 28.85%1.98I 50.51%NM 43.42%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.73%16.3%2026-07-27 11:15