Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estoril v Famalicão

Kickoff: 2026-08-07 19:15 UTC

Final: Estoril 1–1 Famalicão

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estoril (Local)

Prediction 32.09%3.12fair odd
EV -3.74%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -1.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.21%32.08%32.09%33.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.892.903.0037.04%34.65%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Famalicão (Visit)

Prediction 38.64%2.59fair odd
EV +0.843%
Edge +0.323%
Kelly +0.523%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.03%38.64%38.68%40.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.392.382.6145.45%41.88%42.02%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.28%3.42fair odd
EV -0.456%
Edge -0.134%
Kelly -0.190%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.18%29.27%29.23%32.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.173.203.4036.36%31.56%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Estoril (Local): 32.09%; Famalicão (Visit): 38.64%; Draw: 29.28%. For Famalicão (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.843%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.03%EV +0.843%E +0.323%K +0.523%G +0.004%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.65%EV -4.56%E -1.40%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-07 17:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.03%EV +0.843%E +0.323%K +0.523%G +0.004%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.65%EV -4.56%E -1.40%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-07 17:00
Pinnacle🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.54%EV -5.03%E -1.70%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.92%EV -1.86%E -0.733%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.54%EV -4.56%E -1.40%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-07 19:06
GTbets🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.61%EV -10.80%E -3.89%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.99%EV -4.95%E -2.01%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.40%EV -3.68%E -1.12%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-07 18:50
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.93%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.98%EV -5.34%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.09%EV -0.456%E -0.134%K -0.190%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-07 19:06
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.14%EV -5.35%E -1.81%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.69%EV -5.34%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.17%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-07 19:05
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.48%EV -5.34%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-07 19:06
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -8.56%E -3.00%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -5.34%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -3.38%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 19:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -8.56%E -3.00%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -5.34%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -3.38%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 19:05
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -5.34%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-07 19:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -5.34%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-07 19:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -5.34%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-07 19:05
Bovada🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 31.99%EV -5.99%E -2.04%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -5.34%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 19:09
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -5.35%E -1.81%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -5.34%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-07 19:10
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.34%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-07 19:10
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.21%EV -7.59%E -2.64%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -5.34%E -2.18%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-07 19:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 30.21%EV -4.39%E -1.47%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.05%EV -6.11%E -2.52%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.74%EV -19.49%E -7.09%K -11.14%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-07 19:05
Betsson🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.36%EV -7.59%E -2.64%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.51%EV -6.50%E -2.69%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-07 19:05
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-07 19:10
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -7.59%E -2.64%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -3.38%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 19:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 31.41%EV -4.71%E -1.58%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.87%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.71%EV -8.07%E -2.57%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-07 19:10
BetMGM🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-07 19:05
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -10.16%E -3.63%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -3.38%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-07 19:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -10.16%E -3.63%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -3.38%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-07 19:05
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-07 19:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -7.59%E -2.64%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-07 19:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -15.09%E -5.21%K -7.94%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-07 18:55
NordicBet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -4.39%E -1.47%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -8.04%E -3.38%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 19:10
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -5.35%E -1.81%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -8.04%E -3.38%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-07 19:05
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -5.35%E -1.81%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -8.04%E -3.38%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-07 19:05
Bally Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -5.35%E -1.81%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -8.04%E -3.38%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-07 19:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -5.35%E -1.81%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -8.04%E -3.38%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-07 19:05
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -5.35%E -1.81%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -8.04%E -3.38%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-07 19:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -5.35%E -1.81%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -8.04%E -3.38%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-07 19:05
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -8.04%E -3.38%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-07 19:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -8.04%E -3.38%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-07 19:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -8.04%E -3.38%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-07 19:10
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -8.04%E -3.38%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-07 19:10
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.16%E -3.63%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -8.04%E -3.38%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-07 19:09
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -10.16%E -3.63%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -8.04%E -3.38%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-07 19:09
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -11.77%E -4.28%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -8.04%E -3.38%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-07 19:05
Tipico (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -9.20%E -3.92%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 19:10
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -9.20%E -3.92%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-07 19:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -11.77%E -4.28%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -9.20%E -3.92%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-07 19:05
NetBet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.69%EV -10.16%E -3.63%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.24%EV -10.36%E -4.47%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.07%EV -13.63%E -4.62%K -6.99%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-07 19:10
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -11.13%E -4.84%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-07 19:10
BetRivers🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -11.13%E -4.84%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-07 15:35
TABtouch🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -7.59%E -2.64%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -11.13%E -4.84%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-07 19:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -13.37%E -4.95%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -11.13%E -4.84%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.28%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-07 19:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.55%EV -8.56%E -3.00%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.44%EV -11.91%E -5.22%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-07 19:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.55%EV -8.56%E -3.00%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.44%EV -11.91%E -5.22%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-07 19:06
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.55%EV -8.56%E -3.00%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.44%EV -11.91%E -5.22%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-07 19:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.40%EV -8.56%E -3.00%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.25%EV -11.91%E -5.22%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.34%EV -10.70%E -3.51%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-07 19:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.40%EV -8.56%E -3.00%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.25%EV -11.91%E -5.22%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.34%EV -10.70%E -3.51%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-07 19:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.40%EV -8.56%E -3.00%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.25%EV -11.91%E -5.22%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.34%EV -10.70%E -3.51%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-07 19:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.62%EV -10.16%E -3.63%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -13.07%E -5.81%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.03%EV -10.70%E -3.51%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-07 19:05
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.16%E -3.63%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -15.00%E -6.82%K -12.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -3.38%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-06 03:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.10%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.19%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.71%0.5%2026-08-07 19:10
Matchbook3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.82%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-08-07 19:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.81%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66%0.7%2026-08-07 19:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.81%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66%0.7%2026-08-07 19:10
Smarkets3.15I 31.75%NM 31.25%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.37%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.38%1.6%2026-08-07 19:10
Kalshi3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.18%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%2.1%2026-08-07 19:10

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