The School of Odds
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CS Maritimo v FC Porto

2026-10-10 17:00 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CS Maritimo (Local)

Prediction 9.87%10.13fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.126%
Kelly -0.140%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.30%10.12%9.82%12.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.258.759.0010.0013.79%11.42%11.11%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Porto (Visit)

Prediction 71.74%1.39fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -6.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.87%71.30%71.90%73.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.291.291.3681.97%77.61%77.52%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.39%5.44fair odd
EV +1.13%
Edge +0.206%
Kelly +0.252%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.02%18.58%18.28%21.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.874.855.5023.09%20.52%20.62%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: CS Maritimo (Local): 9.87%; FC Porto (Visit): 71.74%; Draw: 18.39%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.44. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.50, producing a positive expected value of +1.13%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV -6.20%E -0.652%K -0.729%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.13%EV -8.18%E -6.39%K -29.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV +1.13%E +0.206%K +0.252%G +0.003%6.8%2026-09-22 12:19
Fanatics🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV -6.20%E -0.652%K -0.729%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -7.46%E -5.78%K -25.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -3.46%E -0.660%K -0.815%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-22 13:49
Marathon Bet🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -1.26%E -0.126%K -0.140%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -8.18%E -6.39%K -29.20%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.06%EV -5.30%E -1.03%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-22 13:43
SportsBet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV -11.13%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.05%EV -6.02%E -4.60%K -19.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -8.06%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-22 13:44
FanDuel🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV -11.13%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.05%EV -6.02%E -4.60%K -19.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -8.06%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-22 13:48
Paddy Power🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -11.13%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -6.74%E -5.19%K -22.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -8.06%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-22 13:43
Betr (AU)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -1.26%E -0.126%K -0.140%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.36%EV -5.31%E -4.02%K -16.58%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -9.90%E -2.02%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-22 13:59
NetBet (FR)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.75%EV -11.13%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 71.96%EV -12.48%E -10.23%K -56.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.29%EV -11.74%E -2.45%K -3.09%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-22 13:59
Winamax (DE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.68%EV -25.94%E -3.46%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 70.07%EV -10.33%E -8.26%K -41.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.25%EV -11.74%E -2.45%K -3.09%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-22 12:15
Unibet (UK)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -6.20%E -0.652%K -0.729%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.05%EV -7.46%E -5.78%K -25.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -12.66%E -2.66%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-22 12:14
Winamax (FR)🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 11.92%EV -28.41%E -3.92%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 69.69%EV -11.05%E -8.91%K -46.02%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.39%EV -13.58%E -2.89%K -3.67%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-22 12:14
NordicBet🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 11.83%EV -22.98%E -2.95%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.88%EV -2.44%E -1.79%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.29%EV -16.34%E -3.59%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-22 13:44
Unibet (FR)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 10.77%EV -21.01%E -2.63%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 70.07%EV -11.76%E -9.56%K -51.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.15%EV -17.25%E -3.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%16.0%2026-09-22 12:13
BoyleSports🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -25.94%E -3.46%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -2.44%E -1.79%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.00%EV -20.38%E -4.71%K -6.12%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-22 13:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎7.60I 13.16%NM 11.29%1.24I 80.65%NM 69.21%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.50%16.5%2026-09-22 12:14