The School of Odds
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CF Estrela v Famalicão

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CF Estrela (Local)

Prediction 23.23%4.30fair odd
EV -4.74%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.89%23.23%23.23%23.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.034.004.1025.64%24.84%25.00%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Famalicão (Visit)

Prediction 49.43%2.02fair odd
EV -5.58%
Edge -2.92%
Kelly -6.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.43%49.43%49.43%49.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.871.881.9154.95%53.49%53.33%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.33%3.66fair odd
EV -5.70%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -2.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.18%27.33%27.33%27.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.403.403.4530.30%29.41%29.41%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CF Estrela (Local): 23.23%; Famalicão (Visit): 49.43%; Draw: 27.33%. For CF Estrela (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.30. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.10, with an expected value of -4.74%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.52%EV -5.58%E -2.92%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.41%EV -5.70%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-04 15:45
Svenska Spel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.52%EV -5.58%E -2.92%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.41%EV -5.70%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-04 15:45
Grosvenor🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -7.07%E -3.76%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -5.70%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-04 15:50
Casumo🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -7.07%E -3.76%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -5.70%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-04 15:45
betPARX🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -7.07%E -3.76%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -5.70%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-04 15:45
Bally Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -7.07%E -3.76%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -5.70%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-04 15:45
TABtouch🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -7.07%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -7.07%E -3.76%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-04 15:44
BetRivers🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -7.07%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -7.07%E -3.76%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-04 15:44
Unibet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -7.07%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -7.56%E -4.04%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-04 15:45
Unibet (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -7.07%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -7.56%E -4.04%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-04 15:45
Unibet (NL)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -7.07%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -7.56%E -4.04%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-04 15:45
LiveScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -7.07%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.50%EV -8.05%E -4.33%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.43%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-04 15:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -7.07%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.63%EV -8.55%E -4.62%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -8.43%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-04 15:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.12%EV -8.23%E -2.08%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.63%EV -9.04%E -4.91%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.26%EV -8.43%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-04 15:45
PMU (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -8.23%E -2.08%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.76%EV -9.54%E -5.21%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -8.43%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-04 15:45
LeoVegas🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -9.39%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.55%EV -10.03%E -5.51%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -9.80%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-04 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.