Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.85
assuming max odds 4.75
assuming max odds 3.75
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CF Estrela (Local): 52.19%; Casa Pia (Visit): 21.53%; Draw: 26.28%. For Casa Pia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.64. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.27%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -10.24%E -5.95%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +2.27%E +0.477%K +0.604%G +0.014% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -2.75%E -0.742%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-24 11:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -10.24%E -5.95%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +2.27%E +0.477%K +0.604%G +0.014% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -2.75%E -0.742%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-24 11:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -10.24%E -5.95%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +2.27%E +0.477%K +0.604%G +0.014% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -2.75%E -0.742%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-24 11:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -10.24%E -5.95%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +2.27%E +0.477%K +0.604%G +0.014% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -2.75%E -0.742%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-24 11:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -10.24%E -5.95%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +2.27%E +0.477%K +0.604%G +0.014% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -2.75%E -0.742%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-24 11:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -10.24%E -5.95%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +2.27%E +0.477%K +0.604%G +0.014% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -2.75%E -0.742%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-24 11:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -10.24%E -5.95%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +2.27%E +0.477%K +0.604%G +0.014% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -2.75%E -0.742%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-24 11:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.28%EV -3.46%E -1.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 4.69I 21.32%NM 20.62%EV +0.974%E +0.208%K +0.264%G +0.003% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.09%EV -6.16%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-24 14:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.28%EV -3.46%E -1.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 4.69I 21.32%NM 20.62%EV +0.974%E +0.208%K +0.264%G +0.003% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.09%EV -6.16%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-24 14:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.07%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.12%E -0.692%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.38%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-24 14:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.62%EV -4.50%E -2.46%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV -3.12%E -0.692%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -9.32%E -2.70%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-24 14:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.62%EV -4.50%E -2.46%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV -3.12%E -0.692%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -9.32%E -2.70%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-24 14:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.90%EV -5.54%E -3.06%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -3.12%E -0.692%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -9.32%E -2.70%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-24 14:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.66%EV -7.63%E -4.31%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -3.12%E -0.692%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-24 14:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.25%EV -7.63%E -4.31%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -3.12%E -0.692%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -10.63%E -3.13%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-24 14:23 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.15%EV -12.33%E -7.34%K -18.13%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -3.12%E -0.692%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -6.69%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-23 15:06 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.30%EV -12.85%E -7.69%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -3.12%E -0.692%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.55%EV -6.69%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-23 15:06 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.30%EV -12.85%E -7.69%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -3.12%E -0.692%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.55%EV -6.69%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-23 15:06 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.25%EV -13.37%E -8.06%K -20.26%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -3.12%E -0.692%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-23 15:06 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.25%EV -13.37%E -8.06%K -20.26%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -3.12%E -0.692%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-23 15:06 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.25%EV -13.37%E -8.06%K -20.26%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -3.12%E -0.692%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-23 15:06 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.19%EV -6.07%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -5.27%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -6.69%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-24 14:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17%EV -4.50%E -2.46%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -5.27%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -10.63%E -3.13%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-24 14:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -7.63%E -4.31%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -5.27%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -5.38%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-24 14:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -6.07%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -5.27%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -10.63%E -3.13%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-24 14:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.16%EV -13.89%E -8.42%K -21.37%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -5.27%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-23 15:06 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 54.26%EV -14.94%E -9.16%K -23.71%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.10%EV -5.27%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.64%EV -9.32%E -2.70%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-10-23 15:06 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -6.07%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -6.35%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -5.38%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-24 14:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.90%EV -8.68%E -4.96%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -6.78%E -1.56%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -5.38%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-24 14:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.99%EV -6.07%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.20%EV -6.78%E -1.56%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -13.26%E -4.02%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-24 14:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -8.68%E -4.96%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -6.78%E -1.56%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -10.63%E -3.13%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-24 14:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -8.68%E -4.96%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -6.78%E -1.56%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -10.63%E -3.13%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-24 14:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -8.68%E -4.96%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -6.78%E -1.56%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -10.63%E -3.13%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-24 14:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -8.68%E -4.96%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -6.78%E -1.56%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -10.63%E -3.13%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-24 14:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.85%EV -4.50%E -2.46%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.31I 23.20%NM 22.01%EV -7.21%E -1.67%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.14%EV -4.59%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-24 14:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.71%EV -3.46%E -1.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -9.58%E -2.28%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%EV -1.43%E -0.382%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-24 14:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.81%EV -4.50%E -2.46%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -9.58%E -2.28%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -2.75%E -0.742%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-24 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -4.50%E -2.46%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -9.58%E -2.28%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -5.38%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-24 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -5.02%E -2.76%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -9.58%E -2.28%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.38%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-24 14:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -5.02%E -2.76%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -9.58%E -2.28%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.38%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-24 14:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.12%EV -5.02%E -2.76%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -9.58%E -2.28%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.73%EV -8.53%E -2.45%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-24 14:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -11.28%E -6.64%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -9.58%E -2.28%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -5.38%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-20 09:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.15%EV -10.76%E -6.29%K -15.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.23%EV -9.58%E -2.28%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.62%EV -11.95%E -3.57%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-24 14:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.57%EV -11.28%E -6.64%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.53%EV -10.65%E -2.57%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.90%EV -9.32%E -2.70%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-24 14:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.66%EV -5.02%E -2.76%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -11.73%E -2.86%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -2.75%E -0.742%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-24 14:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.43%EV -5.54%E -3.06%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -11.73%E -2.86%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -5.38%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-24 14:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.57%EV -6.07%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -11.73%E -2.86%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.38%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-24 14:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.39%EV -6.07%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -11.73%E -2.86%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -6.69%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-24 14:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV -6.07%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -11.73%E -2.86%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -9.32%E -2.70%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-24 14:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV -6.07%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -11.73%E -2.86%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -9.32%E -2.70%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-24 14:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.90%EV -8.68%E -4.96%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -11.73%E -2.86%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-24 14:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.90%EV -8.68%E -4.96%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -11.73%E -2.86%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-24 14:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -4.50%E -2.46%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -13.88%E -3.47%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -5.38%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-24 14:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -6.07%E -3.37%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -13.88%E -3.47%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-24 14:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.66%EV -8.15%E -4.63%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -13.88%E -3.47%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -6.69%E -1.88%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-24 14:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.61%EV -9.20%E -5.29%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.73%EV -14.96%E -3.79%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -8.00%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-24 14:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 51.34%EV -12.33%E -7.34%K -18.13%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.12%EV -16.03%E -4.11%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.54%EV -14.58%E -4.48%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 15.9% | 2026-10-24 14:15 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.94% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 20.01% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 27.04% | -0.1% | 2026-10-24 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.79% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.82% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.39% | 0.0% | 2026-10-24 14:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.59% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.75% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.66% | 0.4% | 2026-10-24 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.59% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.75% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.66% | 0.4% | 2026-10-24 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.59% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.75% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.66% | 0.4% | 2026-10-24 14:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.72% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59% | 0.7% | 2026-10-24 14:25 |