The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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CF Estrela v Braga

Kickoff: 2026-08-26 03:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CF Estrela (Local)

Prediction 18.38%5.44fair odd
EV -4.96%
Edge -0.959%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.34%18.38%18.38%18.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.065.095.1720.41%19.75%19.65%19.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Braga (Visit)

Prediction 57.13%1.75fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -2.39%
Kelly -5.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.26%57.13%57.13%57.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.641.651.6863.29%60.88%60.42%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.48%4.08fair odd
EV -5.49%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.41%24.48%24.48%25.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.783.783.8627.03%26.46%26.46%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CF Estrela (Local): 18.38%; Braga (Visit): 57.13%; Draw: 24.48%. For Braga (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.68, with an expected value of -4.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯5.17I 19.34%NM 18.34%EV -4.96%E -0.959%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.11%EV -5.16%E -3.11%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.56%EV -5.49%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-23 07:25
Bovada🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.41%EV -6.24%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.89%EV -5.73%E -3.47%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -6.96%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 07:20
GTbets🎯5.08I 19.69%NM 18.61%EV -6.61%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.26%EV -4.02%E -2.39%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.14%EV -7.94%E -2.11%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 04:40
NetBet (FR)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.43%EV -9.92%E -2.02%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.16%EV -9.73%E -6.16%K -16.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -9.41%E -2.54%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-23 21:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.