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CF Estrela v Braga

2026-08-26 03:00 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CF Estrela (Local)

Prediction 18.35%5.45fair odd
EV -5.12%
Edge -0.991%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.35%18.35%18.35%18.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.175.175.175.1719.34%19.34%19.34%19.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Braga (Visit)

Prediction 56.81%1.76fair odd
EV -5.12%
Edge -3.07%
Kelly -7.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.81%56.81%56.81%56.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.671.671.6759.88%59.88%59.88%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.84%4.03fair odd
EV -5.12%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.84%24.84%24.84%24.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.823.823.823.8226.18%26.18%26.18%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: CF Estrela (Local): 18.35%; Braga (Visit): 56.81%; Draw: 24.84%. For Braga (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.76. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.67, with an expected value of -5.12%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯5.17I 19.34%NM 18.35%EV -5.12%E -0.991%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.81%EV -5.12%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.84%EV -5.12%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-22 10:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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