The School of Odds
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Casa Pia v Sporting Lisbon

Kickoff: 2026-10-30 20:17 UTC

Final: Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting Lisbon

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Casa Pia (Local)

Prediction 10.93%9.14fair odd
EV +14.82%
Edge +1.41%
Kelly +1.56%
Growth +0.231%

assuming max odds 10.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.95%11.02%10.92%13.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.008.688.5010.5016.67%11.52%11.76%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sporting Lisbon (Visit)

Prediction 71.51%1.40fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -7.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.40%71.47%71.49%73.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.291.291.3681.97%77.76%77.52%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.56%5.70fair odd
EV +3.59%
Edge +0.609%
Kelly +0.733%
Growth +0.026%

assuming max odds 5.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.77%17.51%17.58%19.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.205.275.255.9023.81%18.99%19.05%16.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Casa Pia (Local): 10.93%; Sporting Lisbon (Visit): 71.51%; Draw: 17.56%. For Casa Pia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.14. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.95%EV +14.82%E +1.41%K +1.56%G +0.231%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.97%EV -9.19%E -7.23%K -34.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -3.43%E -0.624%K -0.762%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-30 20:00
Casumo🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.95%EV +14.82%E +1.41%K +1.56%G +0.231%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.97%EV -9.19%E -7.23%K -34.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -3.43%E -0.624%K -0.762%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-30 20:00
Bally Bet🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.95%EV +14.82%E +1.41%K +1.56%G +0.231%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.97%EV -9.19%E -7.23%K -34.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -3.43%E -0.624%K -0.762%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-30 20:00
betPARX🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.95%EV +14.82%E +1.41%K +1.56%G +0.231%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.97%EV -9.19%E -7.23%K -34.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -3.43%E -0.624%K -0.762%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-30 20:00
Virgin Bet🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV +9.35%E +0.935%K +1.04%G +0.097%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.49%EV -8.47%E -6.62%K -30.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%EV -3.43%E -0.624%K -0.762%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-30 20:15
ATG (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV +9.35%E +0.935%K +1.04%G +0.097%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.49%EV -8.47%E -6.62%K -30.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%EV -3.43%E -0.624%K -0.762%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-30 20:15
Svenska Spel🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV +9.35%E +0.935%K +1.04%G +0.097%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.49%EV -8.47%E -6.62%K -30.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%EV -3.43%E -0.624%K -0.762%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-30 20:15
LiveScore Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.59%EV +3.88%E +0.409%K +0.457%G +0.018%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.89%EV -10.62%E -8.49%K -42.47%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -8.70%E -1.67%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-30 20:00
TABtouch🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.59%EV +3.88%E +0.409%K +0.457%G +0.018%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.89%EV -10.62%E -8.49%K -42.47%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -8.70%E -1.67%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-30 20:00
BetRivers🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.59%EV +3.88%E +0.409%K +0.457%G +0.018%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.89%EV -10.62%E -8.49%K -42.47%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -8.70%E -1.67%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-30 20:00
Unibet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.53%EV +3.88%E +0.409%K +0.457%G +0.018%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.05%EV -11.33%E -9.14%K -47.21%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -8.70%E -1.67%K -2.07%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-30 20:00
Unibet (NL)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.53%EV +3.88%E +0.409%K +0.457%G +0.018%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.05%EV -11.33%E -9.14%K -47.21%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -8.70%E -1.67%K -2.07%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-30 20:00
Pinnacle🎯9.43I 10.60%NM 10.27%EV +3.12%E +0.331%K +0.370%G +0.012%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.80%EV -4.90%E -3.68%K -14.84%G +0.000%5.72I 17.48%NM 16.93%EV +0.433%E +0.076%K +0.092%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-30 20:14
Betr (AU)🎯9.25I 10.81%NM 10.21%EV +1.15%E +0.124%K +0.139%G +0.002%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.04%E -5.42%K -23.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.43%E -0.624%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-30 20:14
Fanatics🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.52%EV -1.59%E -0.176%K -0.198%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.27%EV -6.33%E -4.83%K -20.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -3.43%E -0.624%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-30 20:05
Tipico (DE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -1.59%E -0.176%K -0.198%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.16%EV -8.47%E -6.62%K -30.25%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.43%EV +0.082%E +0.014%K +0.017%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-30 20:15
Betway🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -1.59%E -0.176%K -0.198%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.84%EV -7.04%E -5.42%K -23.47%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -7.82%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-30 20:15
SportsBet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -1.59%E -0.176%K -0.198%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.53%EV -9.19%E -7.23%K -34.02%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.10%EV +1.84%E +0.317%K +0.383%G +0.007%7.1%2026-10-30 20:15
Bet Right🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -1.59%E -0.176%K -0.198%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.99%EV -7.76%E -6.01%K -26.75%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -7.82%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-30 20:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -1.59%E -0.176%K -0.198%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.15%EV -8.47%E -6.62%K -30.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.59%EV -7.82%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-30 20:14
Paddy Power🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -1.59%E -0.176%K -0.198%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -10.62%E -8.49%K -42.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -3.43%E -0.624%K -0.762%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-30 20:15
Unibet (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -1.59%E -0.176%K -0.198%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 72.42%EV -11.33%E -9.14%K -47.21%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.61%EV -10.45%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-30 20:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -1.59%E -0.176%K -0.198%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 72.42%EV -11.33%E -9.14%K -47.21%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.61%EV -10.45%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-30 20:15
PMU (FR)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.86%EV -1.59%E -0.176%K -0.198%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 72.74%EV -12.76%E -10.46%K -58.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.40%EV -10.45%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-30 20:15
NordicBet🎯8.80I 11.36%NM 10.47%EV -3.77%E -0.429%K -0.484%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.98%EV -8.47%E -6.62%K -30.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -7.82%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-30 20:15
Betsson🎯8.80I 11.36%NM 10.47%EV -3.77%E -0.429%K -0.484%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.98%EV -8.47%E -6.62%K -30.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -7.82%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-30 20:15
BetUS🎯8.60I 11.63%NM 10.93%EV -5.96%E -0.693%K -0.784%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.29%EV -7.04%E -5.42%K -23.47%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.78%EV -1.67%E -0.299%K -0.364%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-30 20:14
Coolbet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.37%EV -7.05%E -0.830%K -0.940%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 71.06%EV -2.75%E -2.02%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.57%EV -3.43%E -0.624%K -0.762%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-30 20:15
FanDuel🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -7.05%E -0.830%K -0.940%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.28%EV -9.19%E -7.23%K -34.02%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.77%EV +3.59%E +0.609%K +0.733%G +0.026%7.5%2026-10-30 20:15
PlayUp🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -7.05%E -0.830%K -0.940%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%EV -7.04%E -5.42%K -23.47%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -7.82%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-30 20:05
betfred_uk🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -7.05%E -0.830%K -0.940%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -7.76%E -6.01%K -26.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -12.21%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-30 19:25
Bet Victor🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -7.05%E -0.830%K -0.940%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -7.76%E -6.01%K -26.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -12.21%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-30 19:49
betano_uk🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -7.05%E -0.830%K -0.940%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -7.76%E -6.01%K -26.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -12.21%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-30 19:48
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -7.05%E -0.830%K -0.940%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -10.62%E -8.49%K -42.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -3.43%E -0.624%K -0.762%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-30 20:15
BoyleSports🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -7.05%E -0.830%K -0.940%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.26%EV -7.76%E -6.01%K -26.75%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.08%EV -16.60%E -3.49%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-30 20:15
LowVig.ag🎯8.40I 11.90%NM 11.21%EV -8.15%E -0.970%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.35%EV -5.61%E -4.25%K -17.53%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -5.19%E -0.960%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-30 20:15
BetOnline.ag🎯8.40I 11.90%NM 11.21%EV -8.15%E -0.970%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.35%EV -5.61%E -4.25%K -17.53%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -5.19%E -0.960%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-30 20:15
Marathon Bet🎯8.30I 12.05%NM 10.87%EV -9.24%E -1.11%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.61%EV -9.90%E -7.86%K -38.08%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.52%EV -9.58%E -1.86%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-30 20:15
Coral🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -12.52%E -1.57%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.13%EV -3.47%E -2.57%K -9.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -7.82%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-30 19:25
Unibet (UK)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -12.52%E -1.57%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -4.90%E -3.68%K -14.84%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.43%E -0.624%K -0.762%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-30 20:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -12.52%E -1.57%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -4.90%E -3.68%K -14.84%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -7.82%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-30 19:25
Neds🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -12.52%E -1.57%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -4.90%E -3.68%K -14.84%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -7.82%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-30 19:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -12.52%E -1.57%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -4.90%E -3.68%K -14.84%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -7.82%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-30 19:25
BetMGM🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -12.52%E -1.57%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -4.90%E -3.68%K -14.84%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -7.82%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-30 19:25
Sky Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -12.52%E -1.57%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -7.04%E -5.42%K -23.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -3.43%E -0.624%K -0.762%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-30 19:24
888sport🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -12.52%E -1.57%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -7.04%E -5.42%K -23.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -12.21%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-30 19:25
William Hill🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -12.52%E -1.57%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -7.04%E -5.42%K -23.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -12.21%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-30 19:25
888sport (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -12.52%E -1.57%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -7.04%E -5.42%K -23.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -12.21%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-30 19:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -12.52%E -1.57%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -7.04%E -5.42%K -23.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -12.21%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-30 19:25
NetBet (FR)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.05%EV -12.52%E -1.57%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.28%EV -11.33%E -9.14%K -47.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.68%EV -12.21%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-30 19:25
Betclic (FR)🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 11.53%EV -15.25%E -1.97%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.46%EV -10.62%E -8.49%K -42.47%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.01%EV -7.82%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-30 20:05
DraftKings🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -17.99%E -2.40%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.06%EV -5.61%E -4.25%K -17.53%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.61%EV -7.82%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-30 20:15
Bovada🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -17.99%E -2.40%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 70.22%EV -6.33%E -4.83%K -20.41%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.52%EV -7.82%E -1.49%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-30 20:15
Winamax (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -23.46%E -3.35%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -7.76%E -6.01%K -26.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -12.21%E -2.44%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-30 20:15
Winamax (DE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.59%EV -23.46%E -3.35%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 67.81%EV -7.04%E -5.42%K -23.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.59%EV -20.99%E -4.66%K -6.00%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-30 20:15
Unibet (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 13.83%EV -34.39%E -5.73%K -6.88%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 66.40%EV -10.62%E -8.49%K -42.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 19.76%EV -26.26%E -6.25%K -8.20%G +0.000%20.5%2026-10-30 20:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.97%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.44%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.59%0.3%2026-10-30 20:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.93%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.7%2026-10-30 20:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.07%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%0.8%2026-10-30 20:15
Matchbook◎10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.46%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10%0.8%2026-10-30 20:15
Kalshi◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.89%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.28%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.82%1.1%2026-10-30 20:15
Smarkets◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.87%1.34I 74.63%NM 73.67%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%1.3%2026-10-30 20:15

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