Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Casa Pia v Santa Clara

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 19:30 UTC

Final: Casa Pia 0–1 Santa Clara

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Casa Pia (Local)

Prediction 25.60%3.91fair odd
EV +2.40%
Edge +0.600%
Kelly +0.800%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.44%25.49%25.63%26.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.693.704.0029.85%27.06%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Santa Clara (Visit)

Prediction 45.01%2.22fair odd
EV -2.77%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.68%45.10%45.02%48.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.032.052.1654.05%49.37%48.78%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.39%3.40fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.463%
Kelly -0.661%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.99%29.41%29.35%30.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.203.3533.33%31.42%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Casa Pia (Local): 25.60%; Santa Clara (Visit): 45.01%; Draw: 29.39%. For Casa Pia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.91. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV +2.40%E +0.600%K +0.800%G +0.019%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.45%EV -12.68%E -6.53%K -13.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -1.55%E -0.463%K -0.661%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 18:55
Casumo🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV +2.40%E +0.600%K +0.800%G +0.019%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.58%EV -13.13%E -6.80%K -14.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -1.55%E -0.463%K -0.661%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 18:55
Grosvenor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV +2.40%E +0.600%K +0.800%G +0.019%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.58%EV -13.13%E -6.80%K -14.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -1.55%E -0.463%K -0.661%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV +2.40%E +0.600%K +0.800%G +0.019%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.58%EV -13.13%E -6.80%K -14.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -1.55%E -0.463%K -0.661%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV +2.40%E +0.600%K +0.800%G +0.019%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.58%EV -13.13%E -6.80%K -14.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -1.55%E -0.463%K -0.661%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 18:55
Bally Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV +2.40%E +0.600%K +0.800%G +0.019%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.58%EV -13.13%E -6.80%K -14.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -1.55%E -0.463%K -0.661%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 18:55
betPARX🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV +2.40%E +0.600%K +0.800%G +0.019%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.58%EV -13.13%E -6.80%K -14.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -1.55%E -0.463%K -0.661%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 18:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -0.159%E -0.041%K -0.055%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -7.72%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -8.90%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 19:25
LiveScore Bet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.58%EV -1.44%E -0.374%K -0.505%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.04%EV -14.93%E -7.90%K -16.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -5.96%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-10 18:55
BetRivers🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.52%EV -1.44%E -0.374%K -0.505%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.17%EV -15.38%E -8.18%K -17.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -5.96%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-10 18:55
TABtouch🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.52%EV -1.44%E -0.374%K -0.505%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.17%EV -15.38%E -8.18%K -17.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -5.96%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-10 18:55
Pinnacle🎯3.83I 26.11%NM 25.24%EV -1.95%E -0.509%K -0.690%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.75%EV -2.77%E -1.28%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.02%EV -5.37%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-10 19:15
FanDuel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -2.72%E -0.716%K -0.971%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -5.47%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -8.90%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 19:20
Fanatics🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.72%E -0.716%K -0.971%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -7.72%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.96%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 15:30
Unibet (NL)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -2.72%E -0.716%K -0.971%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.16%EV -15.83%E -8.46%K -18.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -5.96%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-10 18:55
Unibet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -2.72%E -0.716%K -0.971%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.16%EV -15.83%E -8.46%K -18.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -5.96%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-10 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -2.72%E -0.716%K -0.971%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.16%EV -15.83%E -8.46%K -18.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -5.96%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-10 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -2.72%E -0.716%K -0.971%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.21%EV -16.73%E -9.04%K -19.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.32%EV -7.43%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-10 18:55
GTbets🎯3.79I 26.39%NM 25.23%EV -2.98%E -0.785%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.53%EV -5.47%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.24%EV -3.90%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-10 19:25
Coolbet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -4.00%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.77%EV -6.37%E -3.06%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.02%E -0.916%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 14:00
SportsBet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -4.00%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -5.47%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -10.37%E -3.40%K -5.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 19:20
Paddy Power🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -4.00%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -5.47%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -11.84%E -3.95%K -5.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 19:20
LowVig.ag🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.85%EV -2.77%E -1.28%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -8.90%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-10 19:20
BetOnline.ag🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.85%EV -2.77%E -1.28%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -8.90%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-10 19:20
DraftKings🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -5.47%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.96%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -7.72%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -3.02%E -0.916%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 15:15
Coral🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -7.72%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -3.02%E -0.916%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Bovada🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.38%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.51%EV -5.02%E -2.38%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.10%EV -8.31%E -2.66%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-10 19:15
BetUS🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.38%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.51%EV -5.02%E -2.38%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.10%EV -8.31%E -2.66%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-10 19:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.72%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -4.49%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Neds🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.72%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -4.49%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.72%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -4.49%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -7.72%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -11.84%E -3.95%K -5.92%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-10 19:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -5.47%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.96%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 14:01
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.72%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -4.49%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Bet Right🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.72%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -4.49%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 15:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.72%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -4.49%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 15:15
Betway🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -5.47%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.90%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-10 19:20
Sky Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -4.49%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-10 18:45
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.90%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-10 14:01
NordicBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -9.12%E -2.57%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.57%E -2.16%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -8.90%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 19:20
Betsson🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -9.12%E -2.57%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.57%E -2.16%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -8.90%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 19:20
PlayUp🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.68%EV -4.57%E -2.16%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.90%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 19:25
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -5.47%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.90%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 19:10
William Hill🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -5.47%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.90%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 19:10
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -5.47%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.90%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 19:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -5.47%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.90%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 19:10
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.72%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.96%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-10 15:15
betano_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -7.72%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.30%EV -8.31%E -2.66%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-10 19:05
Bet Victor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -7.72%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.30%EV -8.31%E -2.66%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-10 19:05
NetBet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.53%EV -12.23%E -6.27%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -10.37%E -3.40%K -5.06%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-10 19:25
Betclic (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -11.68%E -3.39%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.07%EV -10.88%E -5.49%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.07%EV -9.78%E -3.19%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-10 19:03
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.96%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -5.96%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.49%EV -12.96%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 45.62%EV -14.48%E -7.62%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.89%EV -11.84%E -3.95%K -5.92%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-10 19:05
Winamax (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -14.24%E -4.25%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.80%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -7.43%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.52%0.8%2026-10-10 19:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.52%0.8%2026-10-10 19:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.52%0.8%2026-10-10 19:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.52%0.8%2026-10-10 19:20
Matchbook◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.91%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.40%1.2%2026-10-10 19:20
Kalshi◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.04%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45%2.0%2026-10-10 19:00