L’École des cotes

Casa Pia v Rio Ave FC

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-16 17:00 UTC

Score final : Casa Pia 1–1 Rio Ave FC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Casa Pia (Local)

Prévision 50.22%1.99cote équitable
EV -2.58%
Avantage -1.33%
Kelly -2.74%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.94

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
48.20%50.34%50.32%54.47%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.701.831.831.9458.82%54.75%54.64%51.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Rio Ave FC (Visiteur)

Prévision 22.89%4.37cote équitable
EV +3.01%
Avantage +0.670%
Kelly +0.861%
Croissance +0.026%

avec la cote maximale 4.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.70%22.79%22.87%24.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.754.114.104.5026.67%24.31%24.39%22.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 26.89%3.72cote équitable
EV +0.835%
Avantage +0.223%
Kelly +0.304%
Croissance +0.003%

avec la cote maximale 3.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.84%26.88%26.81%28.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.513.503.7532.26%28.53%28.57%26.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
BetRivers1.71I 58.48%NM 54.47%EV -14.13%E -8.26%K -19.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV +3.01%E +0.670%K +0.861%G +0.026%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV +0.835%E +0.223%K +0.304%G +0.003%7.4%2026-05-16 16:25
Pinnacle1.90I 52.63%NM 50.55%EV -4.58%E -2.41%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.53%EV +2.10%E +0.470%K +0.606%G +0.013%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.92%EV -7.50%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-16 16:50
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -9.61%E -5.34%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV +0.724%E +0.165%K +0.213%G +0.002%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 16:55
Everygame1.85I 54.05%NM 50.52%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.58%EV -0.879%E -0.203%K -0.264%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -9.92%E -2.96%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:50
LowVig.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 49.64%EV -4.08%E -2.14%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -1.57%E -0.364%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -9.92%E -2.96%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-16 16:50
BetOnline.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 49.64%EV -4.08%E -2.14%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -1.57%E -0.364%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -9.92%E -2.96%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-16 16:50
Fanatics1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -6.09%E -3.26%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -1.57%E -0.364%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 16:55
ATG (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.77%EV -10.61%E -5.96%K -13.60%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -1.57%E -0.364%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -0.509%E -0.138%K -0.189%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 16:55
Svenska Spel1.78I 56.18%NM 52.77%EV -10.61%E -5.96%K -13.60%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -1.57%E -0.364%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -0.509%E -0.138%K -0.189%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 16:55
betPARX1.77I 56.50%NM 52.91%EV -11.11%E -6.28%K -14.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -1.57%E -0.364%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV -0.509%E -0.138%K -0.189%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:55
Casumo1.77I 56.50%NM 52.91%EV -11.11%E -6.28%K -14.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -1.57%E -0.364%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV -0.509%E -0.138%K -0.189%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:55
Grosvenor1.77I 56.50%NM 52.91%EV -11.11%E -6.28%K -14.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -1.57%E -0.364%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV -0.509%E -0.138%K -0.189%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:55
Bally Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 52.91%EV -11.11%E -6.28%K -14.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -1.57%E -0.364%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV -0.509%E -0.138%K -0.189%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:55
1xBet1.94I 51.55%NM 50.04%EV -2.58%E -1.33%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 22.68%EV -2.02%E -0.473%K -0.617%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.27%EV -4.27%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-16 16:50
Bovada1.88I 53.19%NM 50.12%EV -5.59%E -2.97%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.17%EV -2.71%E -0.638%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 16:52
BetUS1.88I 53.19%NM 50.12%EV -5.59%E -2.97%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.17%EV -2.71%E -0.638%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 16:55
TABtouch1.76I 56.82%NM 52.73%EV -11.61%E -6.60%K -15.28%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -2.71%E -0.638%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.43%EV -1.85%E -0.508%K -0.699%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 16:55
Unibet (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -12.12%E -6.92%K -16.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.77%EV -2.71%E -0.638%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -1.85%E -0.508%K -0.699%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 16:55
Unibet (NL)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -12.12%E -6.92%K -16.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.77%EV -2.71%E -0.638%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -1.85%E -0.508%K -0.699%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 16:55
Unibet1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -12.12%E -6.92%K -16.16%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.77%EV -2.71%E -0.638%K -0.834%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -1.85%E -0.508%K -0.699%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 16:55
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 51.17%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -3.20%E -0.888%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 16:35
SportsBet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -8.10%E -4.43%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:45
Paddy Power1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -8.10%E -4.43%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:45
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -9.61%E -5.34%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 16:44
LeoVegas (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 52.70%EV -12.62%E -7.25%K -17.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -3.20%E -0.888%K -1.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-16 16:55
LiveScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 52.70%EV -12.62%E -7.25%K -17.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -3.20%E -0.888%K -1.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-16 16:55
PMU (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 52.99%EV -13.62%E -7.92%K -18.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -3.20%E -0.888%K -1.23%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-16 16:55
Virgin Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 52.99%EV -13.62%E -7.92%K -18.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -3.85%E -0.918%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -3.20%E -0.888%K -1.23%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-16 16:55
GTbets1.86I 53.76%NM 50.93%EV -6.59%E -3.54%K -7.67%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.61%EV -4.08%E -0.975%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.46%EV -3.74%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 16:45
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -6.09%E -3.26%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -4.54%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 16:40
Marathon Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 49.38%EV -5.09%E -2.69%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -9.92%E -2.96%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 16:55
Betclic (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.97%EV -8.10%E -4.43%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -4.54%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 16:50
LeoVegas1.70I 58.82%NM 52.81%EV -14.63%E -8.60%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.90%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -4.54%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-16 16:55
Coolbet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -4.58%E -2.41%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -3.20%E -0.888%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 16:55
Betr (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -5.59%E -2.97%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:55
Unibet (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -3.20%E -0.888%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -3.20%E -0.888%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:35
Neds1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -3.20%E -0.888%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -3.20%E -0.888%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:35
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -9.61%E -5.34%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -0.509%E -0.138%K -0.189%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 16:35
BetMGM1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 16:35
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.26%E -3.41%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 16:40
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.26%E -3.41%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 16:40
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.26%E -3.41%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 16:40
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.26%E -3.41%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 16:40
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -9.61%E -5.34%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 16:34
NetBet (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -9.61%E -5.34%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -11.26%E -3.41%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-16 16:50
NordicBet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -3.58%E -1.86%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -9.58%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -9.92%E -2.96%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:45
Betsson1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -3.58%E -1.86%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -9.58%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -9.92%E -2.96%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:45
Bet Right1.87I 53.48%NM 49.81%EV -6.09%E -3.26%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -9.58%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 16:55
PointsBet (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -6.09%E -3.26%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 16:55
Bet Victor1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -8.10%E -4.43%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-16 16:40
Unibet (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.51%EV -10.61%E -5.96%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -10.72%E -2.75%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 16:50
PlayUp1.91I 52.36%NM 48.20%EV -4.08%E -2.14%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -11.87%E -3.08%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -11.26%E -3.41%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 16:50
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 50.37%EV -8.60%E -4.73%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.81%EV -11.87%E -3.08%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -4.54%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-16 16:45
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -4.08%E -2.14%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -13.01%E -3.42%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.58%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 16:54
betfred_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -8.10%E -4.43%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -14.16%E -3.77%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 16:55
Winamax (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -9.61%E -5.34%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -14.16%E -3.77%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -5.89%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-16 16:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 48.53%EV -9.61%E -5.34%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.29%EV -14.16%E -3.77%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.18%EV -16.64%E -5.37%K -7.93%G +0.000%14.5%2026-05-16 16:45
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.95I 51.28%NM 51.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.65%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.28%0.4%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.51%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%0.6%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.20%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.21%0.7%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.33%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14%0.9%2026-05-16 16:55
Smarkets1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.83%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.28%1.8%2026-05-16 16:55
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 51.92%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.52%1.9%2026-05-16 16:55