Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Casa Pia v Moreirense FC

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 17:00 UTC

Final: Casa Pia 0–1 Moreirense FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Casa Pia (Local)

Prediction 36.11%2.77fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.522%
Kelly -0.823%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.22%36.08%36.13%37.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.572.602.7341.67%38.90%38.46%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Moreirense FC (Visit)

Prediction 32.97%3.03fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -0.929%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.68%33.01%32.88%34.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.792.802.9537.74%35.86%35.71%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.92%3.23fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -0.824%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.79%30.91%30.99%32.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.013.003.1534.72%33.27%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Casa Pia (Local): 36.11%; Moreirense FC (Visit): 32.97%; Draw: 30.92%. For Casa Pia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.73, with an expected value of -1.42%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 35.44%EV -1.42%E -0.522%K -0.823%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.14%EV -3.73%E -1.28%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.42%EV -4.76%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-30 16:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.50%EV -3.23%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.36%EV -3.07%E -1.04%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.14%EV -8.47%E -2.86%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 16:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.50%EV -3.23%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.36%EV -3.07%E -1.04%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.14%EV -8.47%E -2.86%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 16:40
GTbets🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.31%EV -3.59%E -1.34%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.01%EV -6.00%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 16:55
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.87%EV -4.31%E -1.63%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.95%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.18%EV -2.60%E -0.824%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 16:40
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -4.31%E -1.63%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 16:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.70%EV -4.31%E -1.63%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -4.14%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 16:40
BetUS🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.65%EV -5.04%E -1.91%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.56%EV -5.05%E -1.75%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.79%EV -8.78%E -2.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 16:55
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.96%EV -5.40%E -2.06%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -4.14%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 16:05
Bovada🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.82%EV -5.40%E -2.06%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.81%EV -8.78%E -2.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.74%EV -5.40%E -2.06%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -9.33%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -4.14%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 16:05
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -5.40%E -2.06%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 16:39
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -5.40%E -2.06%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -10.33%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 16:40
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -5.40%E -2.06%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -10.33%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 16:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -5.40%E -2.06%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -10.33%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 16:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -5.40%E -2.06%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -10.33%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 16:40
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.38%EV -6.12%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.01%EV -5.69%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 16:15
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.12%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -4.39%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 16:50
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -6.12%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.14%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 08:45
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -6.12%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.14%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 08:45
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -6.12%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.14%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 08:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -6.12%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.14%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 08:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -6.12%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.14%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 08:45
Bally Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -6.12%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.14%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 08:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -6.12%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.14%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 16:05
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.12%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -9.33%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.14%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 16:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.12%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -9.33%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.14%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 16:05
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.12%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -9.33%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.14%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 16:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.12%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -9.33%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.14%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 16:40
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.12%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.66%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -8.78%E -2.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 16:50
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.74%EV -6.12%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.33%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -5.69%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 16:40
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.72%EV -6.12%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.25%EV -5.05%E -1.75%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -10.33%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.42%EV -7.56%E -2.95%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.71%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.87%EV -6.62%E -2.19%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 16:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.92%E -3.11%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -2.74%E -0.929%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -8.78%E -2.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 16:10
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -7.92%E -3.11%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 16:50
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.13%EV -7.92%E -3.11%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.32%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.55%EV -9.71%E -3.32%K -5.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 16:55
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.13%EV -7.92%E -3.11%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.32%EV -6.04%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.55%EV -9.71%E -3.32%K -5.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 16:50
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -7.92%E -3.11%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.52%EV -10.33%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-30 16:54
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -7.92%E -3.11%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.52%EV -10.33%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-30 16:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.76%EV -7.92%E -3.11%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.67%EV -10.94%E -3.80%K -5.82%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-30 16:50
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -9.73%E -3.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -7.69%E -2.74%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.14%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 16:10
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.73%E -3.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.33%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-30 16:40
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.73%E -3.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.33%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-30 16:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%EV -9.73%E -3.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.72%EV -10.98%E -4.07%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.85%EV -5.69%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-30 16:10
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.73%E -3.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -10.98%E -4.07%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 16:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.73%E -3.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -10.98%E -4.07%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 16:30
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.73%E -3.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -10.98%E -4.07%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.83%EV -9.73%E -3.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.80%EV -12.63%E -4.77%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -8.78%E -2.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 16:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.83%EV -9.73%E -3.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.80%EV -12.63%E -4.77%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -8.78%E -2.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 16:30
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.83%EV -9.73%E -3.89%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.80%EV -12.63%E -4.77%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -8.78%E -2.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 16:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.02%EV -10.45%E -4.21%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.71%EV -12.63%E -4.77%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.28%EV -8.78%E -2.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-30 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.02%EV -10.45%E -4.21%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.71%EV -12.63%E -4.77%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.28%EV -8.78%E -2.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-30 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.02%EV -10.45%E -4.21%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.71%EV -12.63%E -4.77%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.28%EV -8.78%E -2.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-30 16:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 36.36%EV -10.81%E -4.38%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.66%EV -9.33%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.97%EV -10.33%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-30 16:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -11.53%E -4.71%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.81%EV -8.67%E -3.13%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.09%EV -6.62%E -2.19%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 16:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -11.53%E -4.71%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.73%EV -12.63%E -4.77%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 16:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -13.34%E -5.56%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -9.33%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -7.23%E -2.41%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-30 16:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10%0.5%2026-08-30 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%0.8%2026-08-30 16:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%0.8%2026-08-30 16:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%0.8%2026-08-30 16:50
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.67%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.68%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.65%1.0%2026-08-30 16:55
Smarkets2.72I 36.76%NM 35.92%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.57%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.52%2.4%2026-08-30 16:50