Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Braga v Vitória SC

Inicio: 2026-08-31 19:15 UTC

Final: Braga 1–0 Vitória SC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Braga (Local)

Predicción 51.60%1.94momio equitativo
EV -2.99%
Ventaja -1.59%
Kelly -3.40%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.44%51.57%51.61%52.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.701.801.801.8858.82%55.68%55.56%53.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Vitória SC (Visitante)

Predicción 20.69%4.83momio equitativo
EV +0.341%
Ventaja +0.070%
Kelly +0.089%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.79%20.67%20.75%21.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.434.404.8523.81%22.56%22.73%20.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.71%3.61momio equitativo
EV -3.02%
Ventaja -0.861%
Kelly -1.21%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.65%27.75%27.64%28.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.363.353.5031.25%29.79%29.85%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Braga (Local): 51.60%; Vitória SC (Visitante): 20.69%; Empate: 27.71%. Para Vitória SC (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.83. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.85, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.341%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.46%EV -5.57%E -3.04%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.79%EV +0.341%E +0.070%K +0.089%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.75%EV -4.12%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-31 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.46%EV -5.57%E -3.04%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.79%EV +0.341%E +0.070%K +0.089%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.75%EV -4.12%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-31 18:55
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.38%EV -2.99%E -1.59%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.12%EV -0.693%E -0.144%K -0.182%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.49%EV -6.06%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-31 19:10
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.66%EV -5.57%E -3.04%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -2.76%E -0.588%K -0.747%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-31 19:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.71%EV -8.67%E -4.90%K -11.25%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -2.76%E -0.588%K -0.747%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 18:55
GTbets🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.92%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.67I 21.41%NM 20.01%EV -3.38%E -0.724%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.07%EV -7.73%E -2.32%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 19:05
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -5.57%E -3.04%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -4.83%E -1.05%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 19:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -4.83%E -1.05%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 19:05
Bovada🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.86%EV -5.05%E -2.75%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -4.83%E -1.05%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -9.94%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-31 19:09
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.55%EV -4.54%E -2.45%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.90%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -3.02%E -0.861%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-31 18:55
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.88%EV -3.51%E -1.87%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%EV -6.90%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-31 18:20
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.14%EV -4.54%E -2.45%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -6.90%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-31 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.14%EV -4.54%E -2.45%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -6.90%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-31 18:50
SportsBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.07%EV -5.05%E -2.75%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -6.90%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-31 18:34
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -5.57%E -3.04%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.90%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -8.56%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 18:35
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.90%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 18:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.90%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%EV -6.09%E -3.34%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -6.90%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.07%EV -8.00%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-31 19:10
PlayUp🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.68%EV -6.09%E -3.34%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -6.90%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-31 19:05
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.96%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -6.90%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-31 19:05
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.96%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -6.90%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-31 19:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.96%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -6.90%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-31 19:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.96%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -6.90%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-31 19:05
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -9.70%E -5.54%K -12.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -6.90%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -8.56%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-31 19:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.52%EV -10.73%E -6.20%K -14.70%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -6.90%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.29%EV -7.73%E -2.32%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-31 19:03
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -6.09%E -3.34%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -8.97%E -2.04%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -3.02%E -0.861%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 18:55
Casumo🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -8.97%E -2.04%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -3.02%E -0.861%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-31 18:25
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -8.97%E -2.04%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -3.02%E -0.861%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-31 18:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -8.97%E -2.04%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -3.02%E -0.861%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-31 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -8.97%E -2.04%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -3.02%E -0.861%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-31 18:25
betPARX🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -8.97%E -2.04%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -3.02%E -0.861%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-31 18:24
Bally Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -8.97%E -2.04%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -3.02%E -0.861%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-31 18:25
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.96%EV -5.57%E -3.04%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -8.97%E -2.04%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.96%EV -5.57%E -3.04%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -8.97%E -2.04%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 18:50
Bet Right🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.45%EV -6.60%E -3.65%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.16%EV -8.97%E -2.04%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.75%EV -5.57%E -3.04%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -8.97%E -2.04%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -8.56%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-31 18:55
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.44%EV -6.09%E -3.34%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -8.97%E -2.04%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-31 19:05
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.44%EV -6.09%E -3.34%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -8.97%E -2.04%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-31 19:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.42%EV -9.70%E -5.54%K -12.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -8.97%E -2.04%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-31 19:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.59%EV -12.28%E -7.22%K -17.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -8.97%E -2.04%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -8.56%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-31 19:05
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -5.57%E -3.04%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -10.42%E -2.41%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 19:10
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -10.42%E -2.41%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -3.02%E -0.861%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 18:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.99%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.20%EV -10.42%E -2.41%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.56%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-31 19:00
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.99%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.20%EV -10.42%E -2.41%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.56%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-31 19:09
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.69%EV -9.70%E -5.54%K -12.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.89%EV -10.42%E -2.41%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -8.56%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 19:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.90%EV -9.18%E -5.22%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.24%EV -11.04%E -2.57%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.86%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 19:05
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.70%EV -9.70%E -5.54%K -12.93%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.29%EV -12.07%E -2.84%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.01%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 18:25
TABtouch🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.70%EV -9.70%E -5.54%K -12.93%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.29%EV -12.07%E -2.84%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.01%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 18:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.70%EV -9.70%E -5.54%K -12.93%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.29%EV -12.07%E -2.84%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.01%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 18:25
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -7.12%E -3.95%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -13.11%E -3.12%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-31 18:55
Unibet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.71%EV -10.21%E -5.87%K -13.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -13.11%E -3.12%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.86%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-31 18:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.71%EV -10.21%E -5.87%K -13.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -13.11%E -3.12%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.86%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-31 18:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.71%EV -10.21%E -5.87%K -13.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -13.11%E -3.12%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.86%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-31 18:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.86%EV -10.73%E -6.20%K -14.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -13.11%E -3.12%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.78%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-31 18:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.86%EV -10.73%E -6.20%K -14.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -13.11%E -3.12%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.78%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-31 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.86%EV -10.73%E -6.20%K -14.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -13.11%E -3.12%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.78%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-31 18:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.51%EV -10.21%E -5.87%K -13.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.34%EV -13.11%E -3.12%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -8.56%E -2.59%K -3.72%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-31 19:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.61%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.46%0.4%2026-08-31 19:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.61%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.46%0.4%2026-08-31 19:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.7%2026-08-31 19:10
Smarkets◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.87%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.31%0.9%2026-08-31 19:00
Matchbook◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.87%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.31%0.9%2026-08-31 19:10
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.93%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.63%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.45%1.9%2026-08-31 19:05