Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Braga v Sporting Lisbon

Kickoff: 2026-10-09 19:15 UTC

Final: Braga 1–3 Sporting Lisbon

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Braga (Local)

Prediction 26.85%3.72fair odd
EV +4.71%
Edge +1.21%
Kelly +1.62%
Growth +0.076%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.99%26.90%26.87%29.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.383.403.9032.79%29.59%29.41%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sporting Lisbon (Visit)

Prediction 45.65%2.19fair odd
EV +4.98%
Edge +2.17%
Kelly +3.83%
Growth +0.191%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.44%45.43%45.61%46.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.052.052.3052.08%48.75%48.78%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.51%3.64fair odd
EV -0.975%
Edge -0.271%
Kelly -0.375%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.42%27.67%27.52%30.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.363.403.6032.79%29.76%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Braga (Local): 26.85%; Sporting Lisbon (Visit): 45.65%; Draw: 27.51%. For Sporting Lisbon (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.98%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -14.09%E -4.40%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.44%EV +4.98%E +2.17%K +3.83%G +0.191%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -16.10%E -5.28%K -7.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-27 14:12
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -8.72%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -1.86%E -0.866%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -6.48%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 21:00
betPARX🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -12.74%E -3.92%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -1.86%E -0.866%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.10%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 19:34
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -12.74%E -3.92%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -1.86%E -0.866%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.10%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 22:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -12.74%E -3.92%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -1.86%E -0.866%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.10%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 22:45
Bally Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -12.74%E -3.92%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -1.86%E -0.866%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.10%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 22:58
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -12.74%E -3.92%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -1.86%E -0.866%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.10%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 23:05
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -12.74%E -3.92%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -1.86%E -0.866%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.10%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 23:25
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -12.74%E -3.92%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -1.86%E -0.866%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.10%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 23:24
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -12.74%E -3.92%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -1.86%E -0.866%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.10%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 23:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.72%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.15%E -1.97%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.48%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 21:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.72%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.15%E -1.97%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.48%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 20:59
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.72%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.15%E -1.97%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.48%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 20:59
BetMGM🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -11.40%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -4.15%E -1.97%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-04 20:58
Pinnacle🎯3.57I 28.01%NM 26.66%EV -4.15%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.76%EV -5.06%E -2.43%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.59%EV -5.10%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-05 14:10
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -16.77%E -5.41%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.45%EV -5.06%E -2.43%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.39%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-02 20:35
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -16.77%E -5.41%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.45%EV -5.06%E -2.43%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.39%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-02 21:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.10%EV -16.77%E -5.41%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.57%EV -5.51%E -2.66%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-02 23:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.10%EV -16.77%E -5.41%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.57%EV -5.51%E -2.66%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-02 23:25
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.10%EV -16.77%E -5.41%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.57%EV -5.51%E -2.66%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-02 23:30
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -6.03%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.57%EV -5.97%E -2.90%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -6.48%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 14:11
BetUS🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -6.03%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.57%EV -5.97%E -2.90%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -6.48%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 14:15
BetOnline.ag🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -7.38%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -5.97%E -2.90%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -6.48%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-05 15:05
LowVig.ag🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -7.38%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.39%EV -5.97%E -2.90%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -6.48%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-05 15:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.25%EV -18.11%E -5.94%K -8.84%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.30%EV -5.97%E -2.90%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -10.60%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-02 23:25
Coolbet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -6.03%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -6.43%E -3.14%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -0.975%E -0.271%K -0.375%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-22 07:44
Betr (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.03%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.43%E -3.14%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.73%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-05 13:51
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.35%E -0.930%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.43%E -3.14%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.48%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-05 13:45
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.03%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -6.43%E -3.14%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.48%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-05 13:55
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.72%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -6.43%E -3.14%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-04 21:35
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.72%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -6.43%E -3.14%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-04 21:40
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.72%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -6.43%E -3.14%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-04 21:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.72%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -6.43%E -3.14%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-04 21:35
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.03%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.30%EV -7.34%E -3.62%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -3.73%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-05 13:49
Marathon Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -7.38%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.03%EV -7.80%E -3.86%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.03%EV -5.38%E -1.56%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 21:00
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV +4.71%E +1.21%K +1.62%G +0.076%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -8.71%E -4.35%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -11.98%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-05 13:51
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.03%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.71%E -4.35%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.73%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 13:50
FanDuel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.03%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.71%E -4.35%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.73%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 13:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.03%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.71%E -4.35%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.73%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 13:51
Bet Right🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -7.38%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.31%EV -8.71%E -4.35%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -5.10%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-05 13:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.03%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -8.71%E -4.35%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -6.48%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-05 13:50
betfred_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.72%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.71%E -4.35%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.48%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-05 13:51
betano_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.72%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.71%E -4.35%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-05 14:16
Bet Victor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.72%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.71%E -4.35%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-05 14:10
Betway🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.40%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.71%E -4.35%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -6.48%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-05 14:20
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -11.40%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -8.71%E -4.35%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-05 14:11
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -0.664%E -0.179%K -0.246%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.84%EV -9.62%E -4.86%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 13:45
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -0.664%E -0.179%K -0.246%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.84%EV -9.62%E -4.86%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 13:45
PlayUp🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -2.01%E -0.550%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.47%EV -9.62%E -4.86%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -10.60%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-05 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -11.40%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.71%EV -10.54%E -5.38%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-05 13:49
Sky Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -11.40%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -10.99%E -5.64%K -11.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -10.60%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-05 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%EV -12.74%E -3.92%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.39%EV -11.45%E -5.90%K -12.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.52%EV -11.98%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-05 13:45
NetBet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.61%EV -11.40%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.51%EV -11.90%E -6.17%K -12.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.88%EV -13.35%E -4.24%K -6.21%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-05 15:09
Betclic (FR)🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 26.07%EV -7.91%E -2.31%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.58%EV -12.36%E -6.44%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.35%EV -10.05%E -3.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-05 13:50
Unibet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -11.40%E -3.46%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.63%EV -12.36%E -6.44%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.82%EV -13.35%E -4.24%K -6.21%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-05 13:51
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.21%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.62%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.16%3.1%2026-10-05 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 26.43%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.39%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.18%3.6%2026-10-05 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 26.43%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.39%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.18%3.6%2026-10-05 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 26.43%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.39%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.18%3.6%2026-10-05 14:25
Smarkets◎3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%6.6%2026-10-05 14:45