The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Braga v Gil Vicente

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 19:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Braga (Local)

Prediction 57.99%1.72fair odd
EV -6.05%
Edge -3.74%
Kelly -9.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.37%57.98%57.99%59.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.601.611.6264.52%62.37%62.11%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gil Vicente (Visit)

Prediction 17.70%5.65fair odd
EV +2.51%
Edge +0.433%
Kelly +0.524%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 5.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.63%17.56%17.70%18.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.225.105.7920.00%19.15%19.61%17.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.30%4.11fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -0.572%
Kelly -0.761%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.95%24.46%24.30%25.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.733.704.0227.78%26.78%27.03%24.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Braga (Local): 57.99%; Gil Vicente (Visit): 17.70%; Draw: 24.30%. For Gil Vicente (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.65. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.79, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.43%EV -6.05%E -3.74%K -9.76%G +0.000%5.79I 17.27%NM 16.63%EV +2.51%E +0.433%K +0.524%G +0.013%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.95%EV -2.30%E -0.572%K -0.761%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-16 19:00
BetUS🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.96%EV -7.21%E -4.51%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV -0.855%E -0.153%K -0.186%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -5.21%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 16:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.94%EV -6.63%E -4.12%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -7.05%E -1.34%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -6.67%E -1.74%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 17:59
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.76%EV -7.21%E -4.51%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.60%EV -7.05%E -1.34%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -8.86%E -2.36%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 11:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.04%EV -10.11%E -6.52%K -18.39%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.64%EV -9.71%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.32%EV -10.08%E -2.72%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-16 18:04
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.37%EV -6.05%E -3.74%K -9.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -11.48%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -12.51%E -3.47%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 07:59
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -6.63%E -4.12%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -11.48%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -12.51%E -3.47%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-16 07:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -6.63%E -4.12%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -11.48%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -12.51%E -3.47%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-16 07:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -6.63%E -4.12%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -11.48%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -12.51%E -3.47%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-16 07:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.68%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.52%2.0%2026-08-16 18:45