Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Braga v Gil Vicente

Kickoff: 2026-10-19 19:15 UTC

Final: Braga 1–2 Gil Vicente

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Braga (Local)

Prediction 53.52%1.87fair odd
EV -3.66%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -4.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.32%53.68%53.51%57.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.701.731.8064.10%58.74%57.80%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gil Vicente (Visit)

Prediction 19.30%5.18fair odd
EV +4.82%
Edge +0.888%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.052%

assuming max odds 5.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.32%19.20%19.29%20.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.904.905.4323.26%20.42%20.41%18.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.17%3.68fair odd
EV +0.547%
Edge +0.148%
Kelly +0.203%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.18%27.12%27.20%28.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.473.453.7030.77%28.84%28.99%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Braga (Local): 53.52%; Gil Vicente (Visit): 19.30%; Draw: 27.17%. For Gil Vicente (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.18. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.28%EV -4.73%E -2.66%K -6.07%G +0.000%5.43I 18.42%NM 17.79%EV +4.82%E +0.888%K +1.09%G +0.052%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.92%EV -5.98%E -1.73%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-19 19:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -12.76%E -7.83%K -20.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV +4.24%E +0.786%K +0.964%G +0.041%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV +0.547%E +0.148%K +0.203%G +0.001%6.9%2026-10-19 18:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -12.76%E -7.83%K -20.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV +4.24%E +0.786%K +0.964%G +0.041%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV +0.547%E +0.148%K +0.203%G +0.001%6.9%2026-10-19 18:35
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -12.76%E -7.83%K -20.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV +4.24%E +0.786%K +0.964%G +0.041%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV +0.547%E +0.148%K +0.203%G +0.001%6.9%2026-10-19 18:35
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -12.76%E -7.83%K -20.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV +4.24%E +0.786%K +0.964%G +0.041%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV +0.547%E +0.148%K +0.203%G +0.001%6.9%2026-10-19 18:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -12.76%E -7.83%K -20.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV +4.24%E +0.786%K +0.964%G +0.041%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV +0.547%E +0.148%K +0.203%G +0.001%6.9%2026-10-19 18:35
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -12.76%E -7.83%K -20.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV +4.24%E +0.786%K +0.964%G +0.041%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV +0.547%E +0.148%K +0.203%G +0.001%6.9%2026-10-19 18:35
Bally Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -12.76%E -7.83%K -20.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV +4.24%E +0.786%K +0.964%G +0.041%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV +0.547%E +0.148%K +0.203%G +0.001%6.9%2026-10-19 18:35
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.41%EV -7.94%E -4.62%K -11.03%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.66%EV +2.31%E +0.436%K +0.538%G +0.012%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -8.96%E -2.68%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-19 19:08
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.92%EV -9.01%E -5.30%K -12.88%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.62%EV +2.31%E +0.436%K +0.538%G +0.012%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.61%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-19 19:05
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.83%EV -5.27%E -2.98%K -6.84%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV +1.35%E +0.257%K +0.317%G +0.004%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -7.61%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-19 18:50
BetUS🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.79%EV -6.34%E -3.62%K -8.45%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.10%EV +0.382%E +0.073%K +0.091%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -8.96%E -2.68%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-19 19:14
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.59%EV -8.48%E -4.96%K -11.94%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV +0.382%E +0.073%K +0.091%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.61%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-19 19:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.07%EV -5.80%E -3.30%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -1.55%E -0.304%K -0.378%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.27%EV -5.16%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-19 18:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.07%EV -5.80%E -3.30%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -1.55%E -0.304%K -0.378%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.27%EV -5.16%E -1.48%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-19 18:25
SportsBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -7.41%E -4.28%K -10.15%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.36%EV -1.55%E -0.304%K -0.378%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.53%EV -7.61%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-19 19:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.88%EV -14.37%E -8.98%K -23.94%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -1.55%E -0.304%K -0.378%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -2.17%E -0.603%K -0.835%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-19 18:35
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -14.37%E -8.98%K -23.94%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -1.55%E -0.304%K -0.378%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -3.53%E -0.994%K -1.38%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-19 18:35
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -14.37%E -8.98%K -23.94%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -1.55%E -0.304%K -0.378%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -3.53%E -0.994%K -1.38%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-19 18:35
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -6.34%E -3.62%K -8.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -3.48%E -0.696%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -7.61%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-19 18:50
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -7.41%E -4.28%K -10.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -3.48%E -0.696%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -7.61%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-19 19:05
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -10.62%E -6.36%K -15.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -3.48%E -0.696%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.61%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-19 18:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.67%EV -9.01%E -5.30%K -12.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -3.48%E -0.696%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.08%EV -11.68%E -3.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-19 19:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.94%EV -15.97%E -10.17%K -28.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -3.48%E -0.696%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.18%EV -3.53%E -0.994%K -1.38%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-19 18:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.94%EV -15.97%E -10.17%K -28.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -3.48%E -0.696%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.18%EV -3.53%E -0.994%K -1.38%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-19 18:35
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.94%EV -15.97%E -10.17%K -28.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -3.48%E -0.696%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.18%EV -3.53%E -0.994%K -1.38%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-19 18:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.89%EV -16.51%E -10.58%K -29.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.75%EV -3.48%E -0.696%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.36%EV -4.89%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-19 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.89%EV -16.51%E -10.58%K -29.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.75%EV -3.48%E -0.696%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.36%EV -4.89%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-19 18:35
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.35%EV -5.27%E -2.98%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.27%EV -5.41%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.25%E -1.81%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-19 18:50
GTbets🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.50%EV -5.80%E -3.30%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.88I 20.49%NM 19.29%EV -5.80%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.21%EV -5.98%E -1.73%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-19 18:36
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -6.34%E -3.62%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -7.34%E -1.53%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -11.68%E -3.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 19:00
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -6.34%E -3.62%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -7.34%E -1.53%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -11.68%E -3.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 19:00
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -6.34%E -3.62%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -7.34%E -1.53%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -11.68%E -3.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 19:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -6.34%E -3.62%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -7.34%E -1.53%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -11.68%E -3.59%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 19:00
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.50%EV -4.73%E -2.66%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV -8.30%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -2.17%E -0.603%K -0.835%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-19 18:35
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -7.41%E -4.28%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -8.30%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -2.17%E -0.603%K -0.835%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-19 19:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.52%EV -6.34%E -3.62%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -8.30%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -4.89%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-19 19:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%EV -5.80%E -3.30%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.99%EV -10.24%E -2.20%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.18%EV -7.06%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-19 18:30
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -6.34%E -3.62%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.90%EV -10.24%E -2.20%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -7.61%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-19 18:51
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -6.34%E -3.62%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.90%EV -10.24%E -2.20%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -7.61%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-19 18:51
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.15%EV -4.73%E -2.66%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -11.20%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -2.17%E -0.603%K -0.835%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-19 18:36
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.48%EV -3.66%E -2.03%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -11.20%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -4.89%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-19 18:30
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.48%EV -3.66%E -2.03%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -11.20%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -4.89%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-19 18:30
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.48%EV -5.27%E -2.98%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -11.20%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -7.61%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-19 18:30
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.77%EV -6.34%E -3.62%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -11.20%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.61%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-19 18:51
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.80%EV -11.69%E -7.09%K -17.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -11.20%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -10.32%E -3.13%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-19 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -4.73%E -2.66%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -13.13%E -2.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -6.25%E -1.81%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-19 18:30
Neds🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -4.73%E -2.66%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -13.13%E -2.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -6.25%E -1.81%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-19 18:30
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.94%EV -6.34%E -3.62%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -13.13%E -2.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -4.89%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 18:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.94%EV -6.34%E -3.62%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -13.13%E -2.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -4.89%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 18:36
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -7.41%E -4.28%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -13.13%E -2.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -7.61%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-19 18:35
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -7.41%E -4.28%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -13.13%E -2.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -7.61%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-19 19:14
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -7.41%E -4.28%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -13.13%E -2.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -7.61%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-19 19:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.66%EV -9.01%E -5.30%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -13.13%E -2.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -4.89%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-19 19:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.12%EV -10.08%E -6.00%K -14.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.83%EV -13.13%E -2.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -10.32%E -3.13%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-19 19:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 55.18%EV -16.51%E -10.58%K -29.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.13%EV -13.13%E -2.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.69%EV -8.96%E -2.68%K -3.81%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-19 19:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.06%EV -10.08%E -6.00%K -14.83%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.73%EV -16.99%E -3.95%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -7.61%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-19 19:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.80%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.50%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.70%0.3%2026-10-19 19:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.80%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.50%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.70%0.3%2026-10-19 19:10
Matchbook◎1.81I 55.25%NM 55.10%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.20%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.70%0.3%2026-10-19 19:10
Smarkets◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.24%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%0.6%2026-10-19 19:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.63%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.75%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%0.6%2026-10-19 19:00
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.88%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.64%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.47%2.0%2026-10-19 18:50