Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.25
assuming max odds 13.06
assuming max odds 7.90
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Benfica (Local): 77.61%; Vitória SC (Visit): 8.34%; Draw: 14.05%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.12. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.03%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.53%EV -7.65%E -6.43%K -40.25%G +0.000% | 13.06I 7.66%NM 7.34%EV +8.90%E +0.681%K +0.738%G +0.066% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.13%EV +11.03%E +1.40%K +1.60%G +0.176% | 4.3% | 2026-10-11 16:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.75%EV -7.65%E -6.43%K -40.25%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.92%EV -12.45%E -1.19%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.33%EV +6.81%E +0.897%K +1.03%G +0.070% | 6.7% | 2026-10-11 16:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.75%EV -7.65%E -6.43%K -40.25%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.92%EV -12.45%E -1.19%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.33%EV +6.81%E +0.897%K +1.03%G +0.070% | 6.7% | 2026-10-11 16:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.50%EV -7.65%E -6.43%K -40.25%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.88%EV +0.057%E +0.005%K +0.005%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV +5.41%E +0.721%K +0.832%G +0.045% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 16:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.64%EV -8.42%E -7.14%K -46.80%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +0.057%E +0.005%K +0.005%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV +5.41%E +0.721%K +0.832%G +0.045% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 16:41 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.08%EV -8.42%E -7.14%K -46.80%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -8.28%E -0.753%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV +5.41%E +0.721%K +0.832%G +0.045% | 7.2% | 2026-10-11 16:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -8.42%E -7.14%K -46.80%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -16.62%E -1.66%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV +5.41%E +0.721%K +0.832%G +0.045% | 8.1% | 2026-10-11 16:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -8.42%E -7.14%K -46.80%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV +0.057%E +0.005%K +0.005%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.98%EV +1.19%E +0.166%K +0.192%G +0.002% | 7.0% | 2026-10-11 16:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.58%EV -9.20%E -7.86%K -54.11%G +0.000% | 12.75I 7.84%NM 7.30%EV +6.31%E +0.495%K +0.537%G +0.034% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.11%EV -0.213%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 16:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -5.32%E -4.36%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV -8.28%E -0.753%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -1.62%E -0.231%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 15:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -8.42%E -7.14%K -46.80%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV +0.057%E +0.005%K +0.005%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -1.62%E -0.231%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 16:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -8.42%E -7.14%K -46.80%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV +0.057%E +0.005%K +0.005%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -1.62%E -0.231%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 16:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.52%EV -9.20%E -7.86%K -54.11%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV -8.28%E -0.753%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -1.62%E -0.231%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 16:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.42%EV -4.54%E -3.69%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV +0.057%E +0.005%K +0.005%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.65%EV -8.65%E -1.33%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 16:23 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -5.32%E -4.36%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +0.057%E +0.005%K +0.005%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -8.65%E -1.33%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 16:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -2.99%E -2.39%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -20.79%E -2.19%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -8.65%E -1.33%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 16:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -2.99%E -2.39%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -20.79%E -2.19%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -8.65%E -1.33%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 16:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -2.99%E -2.39%K -11.96%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -20.79%E -2.19%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -8.65%E -1.33%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 16:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.29%EV -5.32%E -4.36%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV -4.11%E -0.358%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -8.65%E -1.33%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 16:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.15%EV -6.10%E -5.04%K -29.02%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -8.28%E -0.753%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -8.65%E -1.33%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-11 16:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -6.87%E -5.73%K -34.36%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.28%E -0.753%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -8.65%E -1.33%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-11 16:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -6.87%E -5.73%K -34.36%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.28%E -0.753%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -8.65%E -1.33%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-11 15:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -6.87%E -5.73%K -34.36%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.28%E -0.753%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -8.65%E -1.33%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-11 16:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -6.87%E -5.73%K -34.36%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.28%E -0.753%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -8.65%E -1.33%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-11 16:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.43%EV -7.65%E -6.43%K -40.25%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.57%EV -20.79%E -2.19%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -8.65%E -1.33%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-11 16:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.74%EV -9.20%E -7.86%K -54.11%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.27%EV -8.28%E -0.753%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -8.65%E -1.33%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-11 16:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.18%EV -8.42%E -7.14%K -46.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -24.96%E -2.77%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.83%EV -8.65%E -1.33%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-11 16:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.09%EV -6.10%E -5.04%K -29.02%G +0.000% | 10.92I 9.16%NM 8.54%EV -8.95%E -0.819%K -0.902%G +0.000% | 6.49I 15.41%NM 14.37%EV -8.79%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-11 16:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.97%EV -4.54%E -3.69%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.23%EV -4.11%E -0.358%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -10.05%E -1.57%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 16:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.97%EV -4.54%E -3.69%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.23%EV -4.11%E -0.358%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -10.05%E -1.57%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 16:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.97%EV -4.54%E -3.69%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.23%EV -4.11%E -0.358%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -10.05%E -1.57%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 16:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.97%EV -4.54%E -3.69%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.23%EV -4.11%E -0.358%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -10.05%E -1.57%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 16:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.97%EV -4.54%E -3.69%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.23%EV -4.11%E -0.358%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -10.05%E -1.57%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 16:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.97%EV -4.54%E -3.69%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.23%EV -4.11%E -0.358%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -10.05%E -1.57%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 16:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.97%EV -4.54%E -3.69%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.23%EV -4.11%E -0.358%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -10.05%E -1.57%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 16:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.31%EV -3.77%E -3.04%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.10%EV -22.87%E -2.47%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -10.05%E -1.57%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-11 16:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.31%EV -3.77%E -3.04%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.10%EV -22.87%E -2.47%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -10.05%E -1.57%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-11 16:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 77.40%EV -10.75%E -9.35%K -71.68%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.48%EV -12.45%E -1.19%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.13%EV -11.46%E -1.82%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-10-11 16:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.56%EV -5.32%E -4.36%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -8.28%E -0.753%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -12.16%E -1.95%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-11 16:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 76.73%EV -9.98%E -8.60%K -62.35%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 8.68%EV -14.53%E -1.42%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.59%EV -14.27%E -2.34%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-10-11 16:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.32%E -4.36%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -16.62%E -1.66%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.67%E -2.61%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-11 16:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.07%EV -7.65%E -6.43%K -40.25%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.64%EV +0.057%E +0.005%K +0.005%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -15.67%E -2.61%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-11 16:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -6.87%E -5.73%K -34.36%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -8.28%E -0.753%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -15.67%E -2.61%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-11 16:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -6.87%E -5.73%K -34.36%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -12.45%E -1.19%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -15.67%E -2.61%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-11 16:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -6.87%E -5.73%K -34.36%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -12.45%E -1.19%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -15.67%E -2.61%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-11 16:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -6.87%E -5.73%K -34.36%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -12.45%E -1.19%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -15.67%E -2.61%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-11 16:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.97%EV -8.42%E -7.14%K -46.80%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.90%EV -4.11%E -0.358%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.14%EV -15.67%E -2.61%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-11 16:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.97%EV -8.42%E -7.14%K -46.80%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.90%EV -4.11%E -0.358%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.14%EV -15.67%E -2.61%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-11 16:53 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.24%EV -7.65%E -6.43%K -40.25%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.64%EV -12.45%E -1.19%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -15.67%E -2.61%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-11 16:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.24%EV -7.65%E -6.43%K -40.25%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.64%EV -12.45%E -1.19%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -15.67%E -2.61%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-11 16:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.24%EV -7.65%E -6.43%K -40.25%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.64%EV -12.45%E -1.19%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -15.67%E -2.61%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-11 16:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 75.84%EV -7.65%E -6.43%K -40.25%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.60%EV -12.45%E -1.19%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.56%EV -18.48%E -3.19%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-11 16:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.83%EV -9.20%E -7.86%K -54.11%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.87%EV -16.62%E -1.66%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.30%EV -18.48%E -3.19%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-10-11 16:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.11%EV -5.32%E -4.36%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV +0.057%E +0.005%K +0.005%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -19.19%E -3.34%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-11 16:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.54%EV -6.87%E -5.73%K -34.36%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.35%EV +4.23%E +0.338%K +0.368%G +0.016% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.11%EV -19.89%E -3.49%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-11 16:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.54%EV -6.87%E -5.73%K -34.36%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.35%EV +4.23%E +0.338%K +0.368%G +0.016% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.11%EV -19.89%E -3.49%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-11 16:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 75.60%EV -10.75%E -9.35%K -71.68%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.15%EV -20.79%E -2.19%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.25%EV -19.89%E -3.49%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-10-11 16:49 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.61% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.89% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.49% | 0.0% | 2026-10-11 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.41% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.12% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.46% | 0.3% | 2026-10-11 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.41% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.12% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.46% | 0.3% | 2026-10-11 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.41% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.12% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.46% | 0.3% | 2026-10-11 16:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.20% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43% | 0.6% | 2026-10-11 16:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.47% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.82% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.71% | 2.3% | 2026-10-11 16:35 |