La escuela de los momios

Benfica v FC Porto

Inicio: 2026-03-08 18:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Benfica (Local)

Predicción 47.97%2.08momio equitativo
EV -2.14%
Ventaja -1.05%
Kelly -2.06%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.04

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.63%47.93%47.95%49.96%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.871.961.952.0453.48%51.05%51.28%49.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

FC Porto (Visitante)

Predicción 22.45%4.45momio equitativo
EV -0.534%
Ventaja -0.121%
Kelly -0.156%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.54%22.56%22.51%24.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.704.054.004.4327.03%24.66%25.00%22.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.58%3.38momio equitativo
EV -0.915%
Ventaja -0.273%
Kelly -0.389%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.31%29.52%29.55%31.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.163.173.3535.71%31.67%31.50%29.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.04I 49.02%NM 47.52%EV -2.14%E -1.05%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.92%EV -5.03%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.56%EV -2.99%E -0.910%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-08 17:54
Svenska Spel2.04I 49.02%NM 46.85%EV -2.14%E -1.05%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.19%EV -11.31%E -2.86%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.96%EV -2.39%E -0.725%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 17:15
ATG (SE)2.04I 49.02%NM 46.85%EV -2.14%E -1.05%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.19%EV -11.31%E -2.86%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.96%EV -2.39%E -0.725%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 17:15
Coolbet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.81%EV -4.06%E -2.03%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%EV -5.70%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.42%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 17:54
DraftKings2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.06%E -2.03%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -5.70%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-08 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -4.06%E -2.03%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -5.70%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 17:40
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -4.06%E -2.03%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -5.70%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 17:39
Grosvenor2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -4.06%E -2.03%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -13.56%E -3.52%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 17:15
Casumo2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -4.06%E -2.03%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -13.56%E -3.52%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 17:15
betPARX2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -4.06%E -2.03%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -13.56%E -3.52%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 17:15
Bally Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -4.06%E -2.03%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -13.56%E -3.52%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 17:15
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -4.06%E -2.03%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -11.27%E -3.76%K -5.63%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-08 17:55
Pinnacle1.99I 50.25%NM 48.51%EV -4.54%E -2.28%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.79%EV -0.534%E -0.121%K -0.156%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.70%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-08 17:50
Betclic (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 48.10%EV -5.02%E -2.54%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.15%EV -3.45%E -0.803%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.76%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-08 17:35
Winamax (DE)1.98I 50.51%NM 47.94%EV -5.02%E -2.54%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.33%EV -0.915%E -0.273%K -0.389%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 17:35
GTbets1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.02%E -2.54%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -5.70%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.93%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 17:54
NordicBet1.98I 50.51%NM 46.95%EV -5.02%E -2.54%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -11.31%E -2.86%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-08 17:55
Betsson1.98I 50.51%NM 46.95%EV -5.02%E -2.54%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -11.31%E -2.86%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-08 17:55
Neds1.98I 50.51%NM 46.90%EV -5.02%E -2.54%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -7.94%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%EV -9.79%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-08 17:39
Ladbrokes (AU)1.98I 50.51%NM 46.90%EV -5.02%E -2.54%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -7.94%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%EV -9.79%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-08 17:40
Marathon Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 47.39%EV -5.50%E -2.79%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.50%EV -6.82%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 17:55
BetRivers1.97I 50.76%NM 47.22%EV -5.50%E -2.79%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -13.56%E -3.52%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 17:15
TABtouch1.97I 50.76%NM 47.01%EV -5.50%E -2.79%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.05%EV -13.56%E -3.52%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 17:54
Bet Right1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%EV -5.98%E -3.05%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-08 17:55
Unibet1.96I 51.02%NM 46.99%EV -5.98%E -3.05%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -14.68%E -3.86%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-08 17:15
Unibet (NL)1.96I 51.02%NM 46.99%EV -5.98%E -3.05%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -14.68%E -3.86%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-08 17:14
Unibet (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 46.99%EV -5.98%E -3.05%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -14.68%E -3.86%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-08 17:15
LiveScore Bet1.96I 51.02%NM 46.99%EV -5.98%E -3.05%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -14.68%E -3.86%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-08 17:15
LowVig.ag1.95I 51.28%NM 48.90%EV -6.46%E -3.31%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.67%EV -1.21%E -0.275%K -0.355%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.43%EV -4.17%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-08 17:34
BetOnline.ag1.95I 51.28%NM 48.90%EV -6.46%E -3.31%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.67%EV -1.21%E -0.275%K -0.355%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.43%EV -4.17%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-08 17:35
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 48.48%EV -6.46%E -3.31%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.98%EV -3.45%E -0.803%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-08 17:35
Unibet (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.44%EV -6.46%E -3.31%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -5.70%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-08 17:54
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 48.02%EV -6.46%E -3.31%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -3.45%E -0.803%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-08 17:04
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -6.46%E -3.31%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 16:35
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -6.46%E -3.31%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -5.70%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-08 17:05
Paddy Power1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -6.46%E -3.31%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -5.70%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-08 17:05
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -6.46%E -3.31%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 17:55
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -6.46%E -3.31%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 17:05
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -6.46%E -3.31%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-08 17:54
LeoVegas (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -6.46%E -3.31%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -14.68%E -3.86%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 17:15
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -6.46%E -3.31%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.27%E -3.76%K -5.63%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 17:39
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -6.46%E -3.31%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.27%E -3.76%K -5.63%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 17:39
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -6.46%E -3.31%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.27%E -3.76%K -5.63%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 17:40
Bovada1.94I 51.55%NM 48.38%EV -6.94%E -3.58%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.83%EV -3.45%E -0.803%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-08 17:49
Winamax (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 47.75%EV -6.94%E -3.58%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -12.43%E -3.19%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 17:35
Virgin Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 46.88%EV -6.94%E -3.58%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.25%EV -15.80%E -4.21%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-08 17:15
Parions Sport (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 47.90%EV -7.90%E -4.11%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -7.94%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-08 17:35
LeoVegas1.92I 52.08%NM 46.77%EV -7.90%E -4.11%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -16.92%E -4.57%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-08 17:54
BetUS1.91I 52.36%NM 49.07%EV -8.38%E -4.39%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.64%EV -2.78%E -0.642%K -0.835%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.29%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 17:50
Everygame1.91I 52.36%NM 48.84%EV -8.38%E -4.39%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -2.78%E -0.642%K -0.835%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 17:44
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 48.29%EV -8.38%E -4.39%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -5.70%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-08 17:34
BoyleSports1.91I 52.36%NM 48.29%EV -8.38%E -4.39%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -5.70%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-08 17:34
Bet Victor1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -8.38%E -4.39%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.19%E -2.55%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-08 17:48
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -8.38%E -4.39%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.43%E -3.19%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -11.27%E -3.76%K -5.63%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-08 17:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 45.63%EV -8.38%E -4.39%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.24%EV -15.80%E -4.21%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.13%EV -17.18%E -6.14%K -9.55%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-08 17:35
PMU (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 47.69%EV -8.86%E -4.66%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -7.94%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -11.27%E -3.76%K -5.63%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-08 17:05
NetBet (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.43%EV -9.82%E -5.22%K -11.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -7.94%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-08 17:53
Tipico (DE)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -10.30%E -5.51%K -11.84%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -3.45%E -0.803%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -2.39%E -0.725%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-08 17:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.06I 48.54%NM 48.48%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.71%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.81%0.1%2026-03-08 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.25%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-03-08 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.25%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-03-08 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.25%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-03-08 17:55
Smarkets2.04I 49.02%NM 48.27%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.84%1.5%2026-03-08 17:55
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 48.04%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.53%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.43%2.0%2026-03-08 17:45