The School of Odds
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Benfica v Braga

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Benfica (Local)

Prediction 65.03%1.54fair odd
EV -7.01%
Edge -4.90%
Kelly -16.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.88%65.03%65.03%65.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.421.421.4372.46%70.48%70.18%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Braga (Visit)

Prediction 14.31%6.99fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -0.508%
Kelly -0.597%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.85%14.31%14.31%14.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.406.596.506.7515.63%15.18%15.38%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.66%4.84fair odd
EV -7.01%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.66%20.66%20.66%20.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.444.454.5023.26%22.54%22.47%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Benfica (Local): 65.03%; Braga (Visit): 14.31%; Draw: 20.66%. For Braga (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.99. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.75, with an expected value of -3.43%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.01%E -4.90%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.85%EV -3.43%E -0.508%K -0.597%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -7.01%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 15:44
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.01%E -4.90%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.85%EV -3.43%E -0.508%K -0.597%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -7.01%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 15:45
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.01%E -4.90%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.85%EV -3.43%E -0.508%K -0.597%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -7.01%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 15:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.01%E -4.90%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.85%EV -3.43%E -0.508%K -0.597%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -7.01%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 15:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.01%E -4.90%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.85%EV -3.43%E -0.508%K -0.597%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -7.01%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 15:45
Bally Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.01%E -4.90%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.85%EV -3.43%E -0.508%K -0.597%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -7.01%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 15:45
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.03%EV -7.01%E -4.90%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -7.01%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -7.01%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 15:44
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.03%EV -7.01%E -4.90%K -16.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -7.01%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -7.01%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 15:44
Unibet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.88%EV -7.66%E -5.39%K -18.24%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.01%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -9.08%E -2.06%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-04 15:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.88%EV -7.66%E -5.39%K -18.24%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.01%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -9.08%E -2.06%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-04 15:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.88%EV -7.66%E -5.39%K -18.24%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -7.01%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -9.08%E -2.06%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-04 15:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.05%EV -8.31%E -5.89%K -20.27%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -7.01%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -9.08%E -2.06%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-04 15:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.05%EV -8.31%E -5.89%K -20.27%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -7.01%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -9.08%E -2.06%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-04 15:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.05%EV -8.96%E -6.40%K -22.40%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -7.01%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.94%EV -10.11%E -2.32%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-04 15:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.05%EV -8.96%E -6.40%K -22.40%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -7.01%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.94%EV -10.11%E -2.32%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-04 15:45
LeoVegas🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.08%EV -10.26%E -7.43%K -27.00%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.03%EV -8.44%E -1.32%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.89%EV -11.14%E -2.59%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-04 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.