Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

AVS Futebol SAD v Sporting Lisbon

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 19:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AVS Futebol SAD (Local)

Prediction 5.33%18.77fair odd
EV +11.86%
Edge +0.565%
Kelly +0.593%
Growth +0.070%

assuming max odds 21.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.46%5.47%5.33%7.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0017.3517.9921.007.69%5.76%5.56%4.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sporting Lisbon (Visit)

Prediction 84.84%1.18fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -2.88%
Kelly -23.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.13%84.77%84.74%86.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.101.101.1494.34%90.88%90.91%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.83%10.17fair odd
EV +13.09%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.25%
Growth +0.163%

assuming max odds 11.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.29%9.76%9.93%12.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.009.319.0011.5014.29%10.75%11.11%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AVS Futebol SAD (Local): 5.33%; Sporting Lisbon (Visit): 84.84%; Draw: 9.83%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.17. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 5.02%EV +1.20%E +0.063%K +0.067%G +0.001%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.69%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.76%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +13.09%E +1.14%K +1.25%G +0.163%4.9%2026-04-19 17:55
Pinnacle🎯17.98I 5.56%NM 5.27%EV -4.23%E -0.235%K -0.249%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.19%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.76%G +0.000%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.53%EV +9.25%E +0.833%K +0.915%G +0.085%5.5%2026-04-23 18:40
Bovada🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -9.45%E -0.556%K -0.591%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 85.80%EV -7.52%E -6.90%K -83.61%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.70%EV +5.71%E +0.531%K +0.586%G +0.033%6.9%2026-04-23 18:33
Tipico (DE)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV -9.45%E -0.556%K -0.591%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 85.62%EV -7.52%E -6.90%K -83.61%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV +3.25%E +0.310%K +0.343%G +0.011%7.1%2026-04-23 20:35
BetOnline.ag🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV -30.76%E -2.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.08%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.76%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV +3.25%E +0.310%K +0.343%G +0.011%8.1%2026-04-22 15:30
LowVig.ag🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV -30.76%E -2.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.08%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.76%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV +3.25%E +0.310%K +0.343%G +0.011%8.1%2026-04-22 15:29
BetUS🎯16.85I 5.93%NM 5.57%EV -10.25%E -0.608%K -0.647%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.39%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.76%G +0.000%10.40I 9.62%NM 9.03%EV +2.27%E +0.218%K +0.242%G +0.005%6.5%2026-04-23 18:30
Marathon Bet🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.48%EV -9.45%E -0.556%K -0.591%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 85.44%EV -7.52%E -6.90%K -83.61%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 9.09%EV +0.796%E +0.078%K +0.086%G +0.001%7.4%2026-04-23 16:04
Coral🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.39%EV -20.10%E -1.34%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.28%E -2.88%K -23.45%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -1.66%E -0.166%K -0.185%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-22 08:29
888sport🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -20.10%E -1.34%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.83%E -5.25%K -52.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -1.66%E -0.166%K -0.185%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-22 12:24
William Hill🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -20.10%E -1.34%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.83%E -5.25%K -52.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -1.66%E -0.166%K -0.185%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-22 12:25
888sport (SE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -20.10%E -1.34%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.83%E -5.25%K -52.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -1.66%E -0.166%K -0.185%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-22 12:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -20.10%E -1.34%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.83%E -5.25%K -52.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -1.66%E -0.166%K -0.185%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-22 12:29
DraftKings🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV -14.78%E -0.924%K -0.985%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.84%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.76%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -1.66%E -0.166%K -0.185%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 19:35
BetMGM🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -25.43%E -1.82%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.57%EV -4.13%E -3.66%K -31.78%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.69%EV -4.12%E -0.423%K -0.471%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-22 08:30
Coolbet🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 5.01%EV +1.20%E +0.063%K +0.067%G +0.001%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.97%EV -4.98%E -4.45%K -41.50%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.02%EV -6.58%E -0.693%K -0.774%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-22 11:50
ATG (SE)🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.73%EV +6.53%E +0.326%K +0.344%G +0.022%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.30%EV -5.83%E -5.25%K -52.98%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -6.58%E -0.693%K -0.774%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-19 16:30
Svenska Spel🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.73%EV +6.53%E +0.326%K +0.344%G +0.022%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.30%EV -5.83%E -5.25%K -52.98%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -6.58%E -0.693%K -0.774%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-19 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -20.10%E -1.34%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.73%EV -4.13%E -3.66%K -31.78%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.96%EV -6.58%E -0.693%K -0.774%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 08:29
BoyleSports🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +1.20%E +0.063%K +0.067%G +0.001%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -5.83%E -5.25%K -52.98%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -6.58%E -0.693%K -0.774%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-21 14:35
Everygame🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.07%EV -20.10%E -1.34%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 84.34%EV -8.37%E -7.75%K -104.66%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.59%EV -6.58%E -0.693%K -0.774%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 12:45
Betclic (FR)🎯18.75I 5.33%NM 4.94%EV -0.129%E -0.007%K -0.007%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 85.04%EV -7.52%E -6.90%K -83.61%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.02%EV -9.04%E -0.977%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 01:42
NetBet (FR)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -9.45%E -0.556%K -0.591%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 84.85%EV -9.22%E -8.62%K -131.73%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.81%EV -9.04%E -0.977%K -1.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 06:49
SportsBet🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.20%EV -4.12%E -0.229%K -0.243%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.83%E -5.25%K -52.98%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-20 21:50
FanDuel🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.20%EV -4.12%E -0.229%K -0.243%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.83%E -5.25%K -52.98%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-20 21:48
Paddy Power🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.20%EV -4.12%E -0.229%K -0.243%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.83%E -5.25%K -52.98%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-20 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +11.86%E +0.565%K +0.593%G +0.070%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.14%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.76%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.41%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 19:30
Casumo🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.67%EV +6.53%E +0.326%K +0.344%G +0.022%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.95%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.76%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 16:31
Grosvenor🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.67%EV +6.53%E +0.326%K +0.344%G +0.022%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.95%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.76%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 16:30
betPARX🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.67%EV +6.53%E +0.326%K +0.344%G +0.022%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.95%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.76%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 16:31
Bally Bet🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.67%EV +6.53%E +0.326%K +0.344%G +0.022%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.95%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.76%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.64%EV -25.43%E -1.82%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.03%EV -4.98%E -4.45%K -41.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 08:29
Neds🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.64%EV -25.43%E -1.82%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.03%EV -4.98%E -4.45%K -41.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 08:29
Unibet🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.87%EV +1.20%E +0.063%K +0.067%G +0.001%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.86%EV -7.52%E -6.90%K -83.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 16:31
Unibet (NL)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.87%EV +1.20%E +0.063%K +0.067%G +0.001%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.86%EV -7.52%E -6.90%K -83.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.87%EV +1.20%E +0.063%K +0.067%G +0.001%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.86%EV -7.52%E -6.90%K -83.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 16:30
BetRivers🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.87%EV +1.20%E +0.063%K +0.067%G +0.001%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.86%EV -7.52%E -6.90%K -83.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 16:30
TABtouch🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.87%EV +1.20%E +0.063%K +0.067%G +0.001%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.86%EV -7.52%E -6.90%K -83.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 16:30
Unibet (FR)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.87%EV +1.20%E +0.063%K +0.067%G +0.001%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.86%EV -7.52%E -6.90%K -83.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 01:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.83%EV +1.20%E +0.063%K +0.067%G +0.001%1.08I 92.59%NM 84.97%EV -8.37%E -7.75%K -104.66%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.83%EV +1.20%E +0.063%K +0.067%G +0.001%1.08I 92.59%NM 84.97%EV -8.37%E -7.75%K -104.66%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 16:30
Winamax (DE)🎯14.50I 6.90%NM 6.28%EV -22.77%E -1.57%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 83.59%EV -7.52%E -6.90%K -83.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-21 18:05
Winamax (FR)🎯14.50I 6.90%NM 6.28%EV -22.77%E -1.57%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 83.59%EV -7.52%E -6.90%K -83.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-21 18:04
Virgin Bet🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%EV +1.20%E +0.063%K +0.067%G +0.001%1.07I 93.46%NM 85.09%EV -9.22%E -8.62%K -131.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 16:30
PMU (FR)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%EV +1.20%E +0.063%K +0.067%G +0.001%1.07I 93.46%NM 85.09%EV -9.22%E -8.62%K -131.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -11.50%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 16:30
Betsson🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.66%EV +6.53%E +0.326%K +0.344%G +0.022%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.75%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.76%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV -13.46%E -1.53%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 18:29
NordicBet🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.66%EV +6.53%E +0.326%K +0.344%G +0.022%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.75%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.76%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV -13.46%E -1.53%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 18:30
Betr (AU)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.48%EV -9.45%E -0.556%K -0.591%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.88%EV -5.83%E -5.25%K -52.98%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.64%EV -13.95%E -1.59%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 11:49
PlayUp🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.91%EV +1.20%E +0.063%K +0.067%G +0.001%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.10%EV -5.83%E -5.25%K -52.98%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -16.41%E -1.93%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 19:35
Bet Right🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -9.45%E -0.556%K -0.591%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.62%EV -5.83%E -5.25%K -52.98%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -16.41%E -1.93%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-22 11:49
Betway🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -9.45%E -0.556%K -0.591%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.62%EV -5.83%E -5.25%K -52.98%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -16.41%E -1.93%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 10:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -9.45%E -0.556%K -0.591%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.62%EV -5.83%E -5.25%K -52.98%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -16.41%E -1.93%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-22 08:34
betfred_uk🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -20.10%E -1.34%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.76%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -16.41%E -1.93%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-22 11:49
LeoVegas🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 4.98%EV -4.12%E -0.229%K -0.243%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 84.49%EV -10.07%E -9.50%K -167.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.54%EV -16.41%E -1.93%K -2.19%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-19 16:30
Sky Bet🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -20.10%E -1.34%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 82.46%EV -5.83%E -5.25%K -52.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -21.33%E -2.67%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 19:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.00%EV -20.10%E -1.34%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 81.13%EV -5.83%E -5.25%K -52.98%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.87%EV -31.16%E -4.45%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-19 17:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)21.00I 4.76%NM 4.65%1.13I 88.50%NM 86.47%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.88%2.3%2026-04-23 20:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)21.00I 4.76%NM 4.65%1.13I 88.50%NM 86.47%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.88%2.3%2026-04-23 20:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)21.00I 4.76%NM 4.65%1.13I 88.50%NM 86.47%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.88%2.3%2026-04-23 20:24
Smarkets20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%1.13I 88.50%NM 85.90%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.24%3.0%2026-04-24 03:30
Kalshi16.67I 6.00%NM 5.71%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.73%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.56%5.1%2026-04-24 00:35