The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

AVS Futebol SAD v Sporting Lisbon

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AVS Futebol SAD (Local)

Prediction 4.87%20.54fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.132%
Kelly -0.139%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 20.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.67%4.87%4.87%4.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0019.3119.0020.005.56%5.18%5.26%5.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sporting Lisbon (Visit)

Prediction 84.86%1.18fair odd
EV -5.81%
Edge -5.23%
Kelly -52.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.49%84.86%84.86%85.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.091.091.1194.34%91.80%91.74%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.28%9.73fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -0.249%
Kelly -0.279%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.97%10.28%10.28%10.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.509.039.009.5011.76%11.07%11.11%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AVS Futebol SAD (Local): 4.87%; Sporting Lisbon (Visit): 84.86%; Draw: 10.28%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 9.50, with an expected value of -2.37%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.73%EV -2.64%E -0.132%K -0.139%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.30%EV -5.81%E -5.23%K -52.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -2.37%E -0.249%K -0.279%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-19 00:25
ATG (SE)🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.73%EV -2.64%E -0.132%K -0.139%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.30%EV -5.81%E -5.23%K -52.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -2.37%E -0.249%K -0.279%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-19 00:25
Casumo🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.67%EV -2.64%E -0.132%K -0.139%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.95%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.59%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -7.51%E -0.834%K -0.938%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 00:24
Grosvenor🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.67%EV -2.64%E -0.132%K -0.139%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.95%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.59%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -7.51%E -0.834%K -0.938%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 00:25
betPARX🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.67%EV -2.64%E -0.132%K -0.139%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.95%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.59%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -7.51%E -0.834%K -0.938%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 00:25
Bally Bet🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.67%EV -2.64%E -0.132%K -0.139%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.95%EV -6.66%E -6.05%K -66.59%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -7.51%E -0.834%K -0.938%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 00:25
Unibet🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.87%EV -7.51%E -0.395%K -0.417%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.86%EV -7.51%E -6.89%K -83.42%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -7.51%E -0.834%K -0.938%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 00:25
Unibet (SE)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.87%EV -7.51%E -0.395%K -0.417%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.86%EV -7.51%E -6.89%K -83.42%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -7.51%E -0.834%K -0.938%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 00:24
BetRivers🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.87%EV -7.51%E -0.395%K -0.417%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.86%EV -7.51%E -6.89%K -83.42%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -7.51%E -0.834%K -0.938%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 00:25
TABtouch🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.87%EV -7.51%E -0.395%K -0.417%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.86%EV -7.51%E -6.89%K -83.42%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -7.51%E -0.834%K -0.938%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 00:25
Unibet (NL)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.87%EV -7.51%E -0.395%K -0.417%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.86%EV -7.51%E -6.89%K -83.42%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -7.51%E -0.834%K -0.938%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 00:25
LiveScore Bet🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.83%EV -7.51%E -0.395%K -0.417%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 84.97%EV -8.36%E -7.74%K -104.46%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -7.51%E -0.834%K -0.938%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 00:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.83%EV -7.51%E -0.395%K -0.417%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 84.97%EV -8.36%E -7.74%K -104.46%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -7.51%E -0.834%K -0.938%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 00:25
PMU (FR)🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%EV -7.51%E -0.395%K -0.417%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 85.09%EV -9.21%E -8.60%K -131.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -7.51%E -0.834%K -0.938%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 00:25
Virgin Bet🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%EV -7.51%E -0.395%K -0.417%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 85.09%EV -9.21%E -8.60%K -131.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -7.51%E -0.834%K -0.938%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 00:25
LeoVegas🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 4.98%EV -12.38%E -0.688%K -0.728%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 84.49%EV -10.05%E -9.48%K -167.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.54%EV -12.65%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-19 00:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.