The School of Odds
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AVS Futebol SAD v FC Porto

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AVS Futebol SAD (Local)

Prediction 5.81%17.20fair odd
EV -6.97%
Edge -0.436%
Kelly -0.465%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 16.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.77%5.81%5.81%6.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0015.8116.0016.006.67%6.32%6.25%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Porto (Visit)

Prediction 80.90%1.24fair odd
EV -6.16%
Edge -5.31%
Kelly -38.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.75%80.90%80.90%81.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.141.151.1690.09%87.48%87.34%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.29%7.52fair odd
EV -0.325%
Edge -0.043%
Kelly -0.050%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.60%13.29%13.29%13.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.757.057.007.5014.81%14.19%14.29%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AVS Futebol SAD (Local): 5.81%; FC Porto (Visit): 80.90%; Draw: 13.29%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 7.50, with an expected value of -0.325%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV -6.97%E -0.436%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.49%EV -6.16%E -5.31%K -38.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -0.325%E -0.043%K -0.050%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-04 15:45
Svenska Spel🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV -6.97%E -0.436%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.49%EV -6.16%E -5.31%K -38.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -0.325%E -0.043%K -0.050%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-04 15:45
TABtouch🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -6.97%E -0.436%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.90%EV -6.97%E -6.06%K -46.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -6.97%E -0.996%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 15:44
BetRivers🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -6.97%E -0.436%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.90%EV -6.97%E -6.06%K -46.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -6.97%E -0.996%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 15:44
Grosvenor🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -6.97%E -0.436%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.90%EV -6.97%E -6.06%K -46.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -6.97%E -0.996%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 15:44
Casumo🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -6.97%E -0.436%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.90%EV -6.97%E -6.06%K -46.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -6.97%E -0.996%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 15:45
betPARX🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -6.97%E -0.436%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.90%EV -6.97%E -6.06%K -46.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -6.97%E -0.996%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 15:45
Bally Bet🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -6.97%E -0.436%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.90%EV -6.97%E -6.06%K -46.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -6.97%E -0.996%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 15:45
Unibet🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.77%EV -6.97%E -0.436%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.03%EV -7.78%E -6.82%K -55.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -6.97%E -0.996%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-04 15:45
LiveScore Bet🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.77%EV -6.97%E -0.436%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.03%EV -7.78%E -6.82%K -55.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -6.97%E -0.996%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-04 15:45
Unibet (SE)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.77%EV -6.97%E -0.436%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.03%EV -7.78%E -6.82%K -55.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -6.97%E -0.996%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-04 15:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.77%EV -6.97%E -0.436%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.03%EV -7.78%E -6.82%K -55.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -6.97%E -0.996%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-04 15:45
Unibet (NL)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.77%EV -6.97%E -0.436%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.03%EV -7.78%E -6.82%K -55.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -6.97%E -0.996%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-04 15:45
Virgin Bet🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -12.78%E -0.852%K -0.913%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.86%EV -8.59%E -7.60%K -66.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -6.97%E -0.996%K -1.16%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-04 15:45
PMU (FR)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -12.78%E -0.852%K -0.913%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.86%EV -8.59%E -7.60%K -66.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -6.97%E -0.996%K -1.16%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-04 15:45
LeoVegas🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 5.98%EV -12.78%E -0.852%K -0.913%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 80.75%EV -10.21%E -9.19%K -92.78%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.28%EV -10.29%E -1.52%K -1.79%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-04 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.