L’École des cotes

Arouca v Tondela

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-17 16:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

35 opérateurs (15 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Arouca (Local)

Prévision 33.36%3.00cote équitable
EV -3.25%
Avantage -1.12%
Kelly -1.71%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.90

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.98%33.37%33.45%34.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.652.762.752.9037.74%36.21%36.36%34.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Tondela (Visiteur)

Prévision 41.28%2.42cote équitable
EV -2.17%
Avantage -0.915%
Kelly -1.58%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.37

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.24%41.27%41.21%42.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.152.272.272.3746.51%44.06%44.05%42.19%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.36%3.94cote équitable
EV -0.853%
Avantage -0.218%
Kelly -0.293%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.91

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.25%25.36%25.34%28.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.643.603.9133.33%27.51%27.78%25.58%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (35 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Fanatics2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -3.25%E -1.12%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.78%EV -9.19%E -4.18%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -3.64%E -0.958%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-12 00:14
Tipico (DE)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -3.25%E -1.12%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -9.19%E -4.18%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.18%E -1.67%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-12 00:10
1xBet2.88I 34.72%NM 33.67%EV -3.91%E -1.36%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.27%EV -2.99%E -1.27%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 25.06%EV -1.87%E -0.482%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-12 00:39
Coolbet2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -4.91%E -1.72%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -2.99%E -1.27%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-12 07:44
GTbets2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -4.91%E -1.72%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.52%EV -6.30%E -2.77%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.41%EV -5.92%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-12 05:34
Pinnacle2.82I 35.46%NM 33.62%EV -5.91%E -2.10%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.14%EV -7.12%E -3.17%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.25%EV -0.853%E -0.218%K -0.293%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-12 07:52
Betsson2.82I 35.46%NM 32.98%EV -5.91%E -2.10%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.89%EV -8.36%E -3.77%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -6.18%E -1.67%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-12 07:44
NordicBet2.82I 35.46%NM 32.98%EV -5.91%E -2.10%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.89%EV -8.36%E -3.77%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -6.18%E -1.67%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-12 07:43
Marathon Bet2.81I 35.59%NM 33.18%EV -6.25%E -2.22%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.62%EV -7.54%E -3.36%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -6.18%E -1.67%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-12 09:04
Betr (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.58%E -2.35%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.06%E -2.20%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-12 07:44
SportsBet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.58%E -2.35%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.06%E -2.20%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-12 07:44
FanDuel2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.58%E -2.35%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.06%E -2.20%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-12 07:45
Paddy Power2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.58%E -2.35%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.06%E -2.20%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-12 07:44
Bet Right2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -6.58%E -2.35%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.50%EV -5.06%E -2.20%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -9.98%E -2.81%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-12 07:43
Betway2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -6.58%E -2.35%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -7.12%E -3.17%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -11.25%E -3.21%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-12 08:24
NetBet (FR)2.77I 36.10%NM 32.70%EV -7.58%E -2.74%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -11.25%E -5.23%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-12 09:04
Unibet (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.25%E -3.00%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -5.06%E -2.20%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 21:34
Betclic (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.65%EV -8.25%E -3.00%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.68%EV -8.36%E -3.77%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.67%EV -4.91%E -1.31%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 21:34
betfred_uk2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -8.25%E -3.00%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.12%E -3.17%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -11.25%E -3.21%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-12 07:44
LowVig.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 34.14%EV -9.25%E -3.40%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.09%EV -6.71%E -2.97%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -4.91%E -1.31%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-12 09:09
BetOnline.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 34.14%EV -9.25%E -3.40%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.09%EV -6.71%E -2.97%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -4.91%E -1.31%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-12 09:09
Coral2.70I 37.04%NM 34.97%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.84%EV -2.17%E -0.915%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.18%EV -4.91%E -1.31%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-11 20:59
Ladbrokes (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.71%EV -2.17%E -0.915%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -6.18%E -1.67%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-11 21:00
Ladbrokes (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -2.99%E -1.27%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -6.18%E -1.67%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-11 20:54
Neds2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -2.99%E -1.27%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -6.18%E -1.67%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-11 20:54
BetMGM2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -2.99%E -1.27%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -6.18%E -1.67%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-11 20:55
888sport2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -5.06%E -2.20%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-11 21:39
William Hill2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -5.06%E -2.20%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-11 21:39
Mr Green (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -5.06%E -2.20%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-11 21:34
888sport (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -5.06%E -2.20%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-11 21:34
Everygame2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -9.19%E -4.18%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -4.91%E -1.31%K -1.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-12 07:43
BoyleSports2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -9.19%E -4.18%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -11.25%E -3.21%K -4.50%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-11 23:04
Sky Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -9.19%E -4.18%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -13.78%E -4.05%K -5.74%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-12 07:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 31.98%EV -9.92%E -3.67%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.24%EV -9.19%E -4.18%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.78%EV -23.93%E -7.98%K -11.96%G +0.000%15.8%2026-05-12 07:43
Unibet (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 33.57%EV -11.59%E -4.37%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.37%EV -11.25%E -5.23%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.06%EV -9.98%E -2.81%K -3.91%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-11 21:34
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.65I 60.61%NM 28.12%1.06I 94.34%NM 43.77%1.65I 60.61%NM 28.12%115.6%2026-05-12 08:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 28.12%1.06I 94.34%NM 43.77%1.65I 60.61%NM 28.12%115.6%2026-05-12 08:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 28.12%1.06I 94.34%NM 43.77%1.65I 60.61%NM 28.12%115.6%2026-05-12 08:54
Smarkets1.10I 90.91%NM 36.56%1.05I 95.24%NM 38.30%1.60I 62.50%NM 25.14%148.6%2026-05-12 08:54