The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Arouca v Estoril

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 17:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arouca (Local)

Prediction 36.76%2.72fair odd
EV -4.06%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -2.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.93%36.74%36.72%37.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.502.502.6143.48%40.04%40.00%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estoril (Visit)

Prediction 35.99%2.78fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -0.639%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.24%35.99%35.94%37.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.542.502.7342.55%39.39%40.00%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.25%3.67fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -0.840%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.40%27.27%27.33%28.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.363.383.5633.33%29.73%29.63%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arouca (Local): 36.76%; Estoril (Visit): 35.99%; Draw: 27.25%. For Estoril (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.73, with an expected value of -1.74%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 37.19%EV -4.06%E -1.55%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.55%EV -1.74%E -0.639%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.26%EV -2.99%E -0.840%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-24 09:09
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -10.02%E -4.01%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -4.63%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-24 12:08
Pinnacle🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.07%EV -5.53%E -2.15%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.55%EV -3.54%E -1.32%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.38%EV -5.17%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-24 09:20
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -6.26%E -2.46%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -10.02%E -4.01%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -4.63%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-24 12:09
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.85%EV -7.37%E -2.92%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.44%EV -5.70%E -2.18%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -8.71%E -2.60%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-23 17:20
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.85%EV -7.37%E -2.92%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.44%EV -5.70%E -2.18%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -8.71%E -2.60%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-23 17:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.15%EV -7.73%E -3.08%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.59%EV -5.70%E -2.18%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.26%EV -6.81%E -1.99%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-24 09:09
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -10.02%E -4.01%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -7.35%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-25 03:15
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -10.02%E -4.01%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -7.35%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-24 12:09
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.02%E -4.01%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -10.08%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-23 14:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.02%E -4.01%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -10.08%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-23 14:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.02%E -4.01%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -10.08%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-23 14:34
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.02%E -4.01%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -10.08%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-23 14:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.24%EV -11.78%E -4.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.01%EV -15.42%E -6.56%K -11.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.76%EV -11.44%E -3.52%K -5.08%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-24 12:09
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -12.51%E -5.26%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.02%E -4.01%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -7.35%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-25 15:07
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.22%EV -15.45%E -6.72%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.24%EV -10.02%E -4.01%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -18.25%E -6.08%K -9.13%G +0.000%16.8%2026-03-25 15:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.